【英语财经】新兴市场基金资金外流加速 Outflows from emerging market funds accelerate

Outflows from emerging market funds have accelerated over the past week, as fresh volatility in Chinese stocks, a rising US dollar, and falling commodity prices further damped sentiment.

Investors pulled a net $4.5bn from EM funds in the week ending July 30, according to data from EPFR, up from $3.3bn a week earlier. A total of $14.5bn has now been redeemed from EM funds over the past three weeks alone.

Emerging Asian equities has borne the brunt of withdrawals, with the cumulative $12.1bn taken out over the past three weeks marking the swiftest exit from stocks in the region since the data set began in 2004, according to ANZ.

EM assets have been rocked by renewed downward price moves in commodities like oil and copper, key exports for many developing nations including Brazil and Russia. Oil prices sank to a six-month low earlier this week, in part due to a stronger US dollar.

“The macro environment remains challenging for EM assets,” wrote credit analysts at Barclays. “Many commodities reached new multi-year lows this week, concerns about China are elevated and the looming Fed tightening cycle dampens prospects of EM bond fund flows turning more positive.”

Some EM currencies — notably the Malaysian ringgit and the Turkish lira — have also been hit by political uncertainty. Many currencies are now trading at or near 15-year lows against the dollar.

Fresh volatility in China’s domestic equity markets has dented confidence in the world’s second-largest economy. On Monday, the Shanghai Composite suffered its second-biggest one-day points decline in history, wiping more than $600bn off the value of listed companies.

Erratic trading has continued throughout the week, in spite of Beijing’s efforts to stabilise the market by banning sales by major shareholders and encouraging companies to buy back stock.

Meanwhile China’s economic slowdown has continued to ripple across the world, crimping growth in many of its key trading partners and hitting corporate profits at big multinationals. On Friday, Taiwan reported far weaker economic growth than had been expected, on the back of a sharp drop in export activity.

过去一周，新兴市场基金资金流出速度加快，因中国股市再现动荡、美元汇率上涨以及大宗商品价格下跌进一步打击了市场信心。

根据EPFR的数据，截至7月30日的一周，投资者从新兴市场基金净撤资45亿美元，高于一周前的33亿美元。单单过去三周，就有总计145亿美元的资金从新兴市场基金赎回。

根据澳新银行(ANZ)的数据，亚洲新兴市场股市因资金撤出受到影响，过去3周，共有121亿美元撤出股市，这是自2004年该数据开始编制以来规模最大。

石油和铜等大宗商品价格再度下行导致新兴市场资产受到重创，大宗商品是很多发展中国家的主要出口商品，包括巴西和俄罗斯。本周早些时候，油价跌至6个月低点，部分原因是美元走强。

“对于新兴市场资产而言，宏观环境仍然具有挑战性，”巴克莱(Barclays)信贷分析师写道，“很多大宗商品价格本周创下多年新低，对于中国的担忧加剧，同时美联储(Fed)加息周期的临近打击了新兴市场债券基金流动变得更为正面的前景。”

一些新兴市场货币（特别是马来西亚林吉特和土耳其里拉）还受到政治不确定性的影响。很多货币兑美元汇率现在处于或接近近15年低点。

中国内地股市再现动荡打击了外界对于这个全球第二大经济体的信心。周一，上证综指遭遇有史以来第二大单日跌幅，导致上市公司逾6000亿美元市值蒸发。

本周，尽管中国政府努力稳定股市，但交易动荡仍在继续，救市措施包括禁止大股东减持以及鼓励公司回购股票。

与此同时，中国经济放缓继续对全球造成影响，这抑制了中国很多主要贸易伙伴的经济增长，并损及大型跨国企业的公司利润。周五，台湾公布，由于出口活动大幅降温，经济增速远低于预期。

译者/梁艳裳