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2014-2-6 08:47
Rational and objective: that is how business people like to see themselves, believing there is no room for emotion in their decision making. Yet whenever human beings find themselves in the grip of intense feelings, such as greed or fear, it is these, rather than rational thoughts, that influence the choices they make.
Whatever we think, emotions always play a part in our decisions. Understanding this can help businesspeople make better choices and achieve better results – particularly in the uncertain world of financial markets. Feelings can be a useful guide to making decisions. Optimism, for ex-ample, is necessary, but too much can mean crucial realities are ignored. Desire to succeed can be so powerful as to repress the risks involved. Fear is appropriate when caution is called for, and excitement is necessary to motivate staff and move business on. It is how such feelings are managed that ultimately determines if one is hijacked by them or uses them as a guide. In the former case, the result may be financial loss, paralysis or burnout, whereas the latter can help in making more reasoned choices. For one middle-aged man with more than 25 years’ experience in trading for an international bank, it was an overwhelming desire to be seen as the “top guy” and to gain the acknowledgment of being right, rather than the financial rewards, that drove his decisions on the trading floor. This resulted in his failing to think through certain crucial management and trading decisions, which ultimately led to a substantial financial loss. He explains: “I wanted to take the existing revenue stream and push the platform to the next level. I upped the risk profile and got it massively wrong. I blinded myself because I was eager – it’s a huge ego boost when you’re in that position that people have to come to you. “It’s the recognition – it has nothing to do with the money. I wanted to show management that I was made of something,” he says. His childhood background reveals an emotionally neglectful home life, where he suffered repeatedly from a sense of disappointment from his parents. Although outwardly he became successful, first academically and then financially, he was never able to rid himself of the feelings of worthlessness and consequently was “driven, obsessed with the need for constant affirmation”. It was the “hit” of a good trade that offered him temporary relief from feelings of self-loathing. The highs, however, were frequently followed by crashes, and the cycle left him more depressed and obsessed with “winning” at work. Marios Pierides, a consultant psych-iatrist in London, has extensive experience of working with traders who have sought treatment because they were unable to manage the extreme emotional volatility associated with their work. He says: “The ethos of the City is to make as much money as you can and get out – ‘I’ll hold my breath for five years and then come out the other end with my Porsche and my penthouse’. But many people don’t come out with this dream at all. It is like swimming under water while holding your breath in a sea of sharks.” The most common problem traders bring to him is drug and alcohol abuse, where they use substances either to energise themselves after burnout or to wind down from a high. “It’s not just cocaine and cannabis, but prescription and over-the-counter drugs as well. When the crash happens, the drugs take it away. Relationships suffer, kids suffer, families are ruined. Ultimately, it shortens working lives,” Dr Pierides says. Also common are depression and anxiety, which Dr Pierides says can impair capacity to make decisions. He says: “You either think too slowly so that you don’t process information as quickly as you should; [or] the other option is that you just make bad decisions with the obvious consequences.” He has observed that female traders seem more emotionally mature and have fewer issues than their male counterparts. Typically, women are more expressive, while men tend to keep their thoughts and feelings to themselves. He adds: “Women are much more collaborative in their ap-proach-es, while men are more competitive.” Two women who claim to exemplify this view are Fatima Ghellab and Manuela Robson, founders of Fat Man FX, a small foreign exchange trading firm in London. Ms Ghellab says: “We encourage ourselves to think out loud and voice our emotions – once it’s out there, it’s not a dangerous suppressed emotion any more. It diffuses the intensity of feeling and the partner takes over if necessary.” Tales that fund managers tell themselves about decisions It is not only traders who must deal with the strong emotions associated with investing. Fund managers also make decisions in a climate of uncertainty. Managing their anxiety becomes crucial if they are to muster the conviction necessary to invest. David Tuckett, a psychoanalyst and professor at University College London, is the author of Minding the Markets: an Emotional Finance View of Financial Instability. He draws on psychoanalytic theory to explain how, under uncertain financial conditions, fund managers are required to outperform each other despite the fact that it is impossible for everyone to beat their peers. According to Prof Tuckett, all forms of financial management stimulate emotions. There is excitement about the prospect of gain, and anxiety about potential loss. His research, involving interviews with more than 50 fund managers in three continents, reveals that in order to cope with these anxieties, they must create convincing narratives. It is by ignoring information, often unconsciously, that their conviction to act is fuelled; in fact, the reality is clearly uncertain and full of financial ambiguities. He says: “The great thing about a story is that it can smoothly get rid of information. Stories create a believable picture of the imagined future by providing grounds for being attracted to the option for some gain, while repelling any potential doubts about loss.” He describes how, when fund managers make a selection for their portfolio, they enter into a dependent relationship with their investment, not unlike a love affair. “Fundamentally one has to enter into an emotional relationship with one’s stocks if one is going to accept the risk to invest. It’s a fantasy, it’s an idea of something which is more than realistically possible. “A good analogy would be the way we idealise our romantic partner, which enables us to make the kind of commitment necessary to engage and marry. Of course, you start with the great love and then gradually it becomes more realistic.” The writer is a psychotherapist and this article is based partly on her clinical experience 理性、客观,这就是商界人士在他们自己心目中的形象。他们认为,自己在决策时丝毫不受情绪的影响。然而,每当人类为贪婪、恐惧等强烈情绪所控制时,影响他们决策的就是这些情绪,而非理性的思考。
不论我们怎么想,情绪永远能够影响我们如何做决定。明白这一点,能够帮助商界人士做出更明智的选择、取得更优秀的业绩——特别是在充满不确定性的金融市场上。 情绪能有效地指引我们的决策。比如说,乐观情绪是必要的,但过分乐观可能让我们忽略一些至关重要的事实。渴望成功的愿望可能如此强烈,以至于让人忽略了其中涉及的风险。在需要谨慎的时候,恐惧感是一种适当的反应,而兴奋感对于鼓舞员工士气、推动事情发展也是必需的。 一个人是被这些情绪所挟持、还是能利用这些情绪为自己做指引,这最终取决于这个人如何管理这些情绪。在前一种情况下,结果可能导致金钱损失、让人失去行为能力或精疲力竭,而在后一种情况下,情绪能帮助人做出更明智的决定。 对一名在国际银行有逾25年交易经验的中年男性而言,驱动他做出各种交易决策的,不是金钱回报,而是一种寻求肯定的巨大渴望——希望别人认为自己是“最棒的”、是正确的。这种心理导致他对一些至关重要的管理和交易决策考虑得不够周全,从而最终造成巨大的金钱损失。 他解释说:“我希望拿出现有的收入流,将整个平台推高一个层次。我提高了风险承受能力,结果大错特错。急于获得肯定的心理蒙蔽了我的眼睛——当你处于领导位置、别人得向你请示时,你的自信心会极度膨胀。” 他说:“是寻求肯定的心理在作祟,跟钱没有丝毫关系。我就是希望向管理层证明,我有两下子。” 童年的经历显示,他成长的家庭环境让他从小在情感上受到了忽视——父母常常流露出对他很失望的感觉。尽管他在家庭之外逐渐获得了成功,先是在学习上,后来是在经济地位上,但他一直无法摆脱觉得自己没用的感觉,并因此受到“一种必须经常获得肯定的心理的驱动,并对这种心理产生沉迷”。 只有做成一单交易带来的“快感”,才能让他暂时摆脱对那种对自己不满意的感觉。然而,情绪的高潮过后往往就是低潮,这种周期性的情绪波动让他更加抑郁,也更加沉迷于在工作中“打胜仗”。 在伦敦执业的心理咨询师马里奥斯?皮耶里德斯(Marios Pierides)为许多交易员提供过服务,这些交易员之所以寻求心理治疗,就是因为无法管理工作带来的剧烈情绪波动。他说:“伦敦金融城的风气就是,赚尽可能多的钱,然后抽身离开——‘我要拼命干五年,然后带着我的保时捷和联排别墅抽身而退’。但许多人根本无法实现这个梦。在那里工作,就好像在充满鲨鱼的海里憋着气潜泳。” 交易员向他求助最多的问题就是吸毒和酗酒。他们在筋疲力尽的时候靠毒品和酒精来提神,或帮助自己度过情绪高潮过后的消沉期。皮耶里德斯说:“不仅是可卡因和大麻,还有一些处方药和非处方药。情绪低迷的时候,药物能驱散沮丧感。他们的伴侣、孩子都跟着遭殃,好好的家庭都被毁掉了。这最终会缩短他们的职业寿命。” 抑郁和焦虑也是常见的问题。皮耶里德斯说,这些问题会损害他们的决策能力。 他说:“要么你的思考速度会降低,导致你无法以正常的速度处理信息;(要么)你会做出糟糕的决策,导致各种显而易见的恶果。” 据皮耶里德斯的观察,女性交易员看上去在情绪上更加成熟,比男性同行的问题更少。女性往往更愿意表达自己的想法和情绪,而男性往往把想法和情绪藏在心里。他补充说:“就做事方式而言,女性比男性愿意合作得多,而男性则更好胜。” 伦敦小型外汇交易公司Fat Man FX的两位女性创始人法蒂玛?格拉布(Fatima Ghellab)和曼纽拉?罗布森(Manuela Robson)宣称,她们就是上述观点活生生的例证。格拉布说:“我们鼓励自己把想法大声说出来,把自己的情绪表达出来——压抑的情绪很危险,一旦说出口,它就不再危险了。这会让原本强烈的情绪得到稀释,在必要的时候,另一名合伙人就会接手。” 编故事:基金经理如何说服自己 不仅是交易员需要处理投资带来的强烈情感波动。基金经理也必须在充满不确定性的环境中做出决策。如果他们想要说服自己做出投资,那么管理自己的焦虑感就变得至关重要。 伦敦大学学院(University College London)精神分析学家、教授戴维?塔克特(David Tuckett),著有《把握市场情绪:金融不稳定性的情绪金融学分析》(Minding the Markets: an Emotional Finance View of Financial Instability)一书。他试图利用精神分析理论来解释,在充满不确定性的金融世界里,基金经理为何必须努力做出超过其他同行的业绩——尽管事实上不可能每个人都超过同行。 塔克特教授指出,所有跟金钱有关的管理活动都会让人产生各种情绪。获得收益的可能性让人兴奋,亏损的可能性让人焦虑。他采访了三大洲的逾50名基金经理,研究的结果显示,为应对各种焦虑情绪,他们必须编出可信的故事。他们在说服自己时会下意识地忽略一些信息,事实上,现实显然是不确定的,充满各种模棱两可的金融选择。他说:“编故事的妙处在于,这种做法能不露痕迹地摆脱一些信息。通过寻找一些理由、来解释人为何受到这种选择的潜在收益前景所吸引,同时排除任何关于亏损的潜在疑惑,编出的故事能描绘出一幅关于未来的可信画面。” 他指出,在选择投资组合的时候,基金经理会对自己的投资产生依恋感,这种过程恐怕跟恋爱差不多。 “从本质上说,如果要让一个人接受投资的风险,这个人就必须与自己的股票建立情感联系。这种联系是一种幻想,是一种超越现实可能性的东西。 “一个比较恰当的比喻是,这个过程就好像,我们将自己的恋爱对象理想化,这样我们才能做出订婚和结婚的承诺。当然,人在一开始的时候总是爱得一塌糊涂,然后逐渐变得更加现实。” 本文作者是一名心理治疗师,本文部分来源于她的治疗经验 译者/吴蔚 |