【英语国际】金正日去世一周 热点报道知多少？

In the absence of much other news from North Korea except pictures of sobbing people, the commentary and the reporting from the outside looking in is starting to wear thin ─ and even get a little wacky.

As the weekend arrives, here’s a look at some of it:

Mourning for Kim Isn’t Confined to Humans, North Korea Says

The creativity of North Korea’s propaganda machine should never be underestimated and, amid the reports of messages of condolences pouring in from Benin to Cuba, the Korea Central News Agency has published several reports that even “land and sky” are anguished over the Mr. Kim’s death.

One report said that the sky began glowing red above Mount Baektu, a mountain that strides the North Korean-China border and is the highest spot on the Korean peninsula, just minutes before Mr. Kim died. And the ice on the lake inside the volcanic mountain’s crater also cracked.

In another report, KCNA talked about “blue flashes” and thunder that accompanied a snowfall on Wednesday near the border with South Korea. KCNA said this was evidence of nature’s mounting grief over the loss.

Not reported was that, at about the same time, the Seoul metropolitan area not much farther south was also being hit by a light snowfall under darkened skies.

Unification speculation

While many people in South Korea would like to see an end to the dictatorial and brutal Kim regime, there aren’t many who want to bear the costs of reunifying with the North if it falls into collapse and chaos.

The death of Mr. Kim raises the prospect of such a collapse, though to what degree is unclear because of the opaqueness of the regime itself. But even just the slightest change in North Korea has been enough to spark talk of reunification costs in the South.

Woori Investment Economist Sun Yoo, in a report, said estimates for bringing North Korea’s income per capita to half of South Korea’s would require somewhere between 800 trillion and 1000 trillion won ($696.56 billion-$870.70 billion). Credit ratings agencies, notably Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service, have warned that the massive government spending required to stabilize the North will weigh on South Korea’s sovereign rating.

Some in the South have called for the government here to set aside money that could be used to pay for unification. South Korea’s Ministry of Unification has proposed the creation of a special account, aiming to raise 55 trillion won over the course of 20 years.

RBS Economist Erik Lueth said in a report that a better idea is simply for South Korea to keep its debt levels low. South Korea’s sovereign debt is estimated to be around 33.3% of annual gross domestic product this year, and the government currently plans to balance the budget by 2013 and bring the debt level down into the 20% range.

“Reducing government debt rather than setting up a unification fund should be more cost effective, given that the interest paid on debt is probably higher than the risk-adjusted return to be earned on the fund,” Mr. Lueth wrote.

Looking for a miracle

Did Kim Jong Il know how sick he was and did he go looking for help from a South Korean company specializing in stem cell research?

That seems to be the suggestion from a Yonhap report today that says Kospi-listed RNL Bio Co. was contacted by a South Korean religious figure, not identified by the company or Yonhap, on behalf of Kim just in September. The person asked the company if they could take Mr. Kim’s stem cells and grow new cells on his behalf.

A company spokeswoman confirmed the Yonhap report, but said she couldn’t identify the person who made the contact. And she added that RNL declined the request, and even declined a second request from the same person a month later in October.

The funeral next week

Heading into the week when all the attention will be around Kim Jong Il’s funeral, the Korea Economic Institute has whipped together a cheat sheet of 10 people to watch, both at the funeral and in the weeks ahead as the regime tries to hold itself together.

On top of that group of people, there will also be a lot of attention on whether or not Kim Jong Il’s eldest son, Kim Jong Nam, and half-brother, Kim Pyong Il, will be in Pyongyang to pay their respects.

The half-brother was Kim Jong Il’s closet rival for power, but was dispatched to embassies in Eastern Europe in the 1970s and has been in Poland in recent years.

The eldest son is currently seen as the main rival for Kim Jong Eun, his little brother who was tapped by Kim Jong Il to take over leadership of North Korea. Kim Jong Nam occasionally meets reporters in Macau, where he has lived in recent years, and earlier this year said he wasn’t interested in taking power in North Korea.

And for those who really want to delve into Pyongyang-ology, Luke Herman at NK News has put together a spreadsheet that compares the ranking of the North Korean elite on the Kim Jong Il funeral committee with those who were on the funeral committee for the last major North Korean figure to die, Jo Myong Rok, who was vice chairman of the all-powerful National Defense Commission. Mr. Jo died in November 2010 and was one of the last people known to have fought with Kim Jong Il’s father, Kim Il Sung, against the Japanese in World War II.

Associated Press金正恩从其父金正日的遗体旁走过。图片截自朝鲜官方媒体播放的影像。
除了哭泣民众的照片，朝鲜也没多少新闻了。从外界人的角度发布的评论和报道也开始不再引起人们的兴趣，甚至变得有些古怪。

金正日去世的消息传出已有一周，以下是部分热点报道：

朝鲜说，为金正日的去世感到悲恸的并不仅限于人类。

相关报道绝不要低估朝鲜宣传机器的创造力。朝鲜中央通信社（Korea Central News Agency，简称：朝中社）发布了一系列关于潮水般涌入的唁电的报道（这些唁电来自从贝宁到古巴的多个国家），同时还发布了好几篇报道说，甚至就连“天地”都为金正日的去世动容。

其中一篇报道说，就在金正日去世前几分钟，朝鲜半岛最高峰白头山（Mount Baektu，即长白山）山顶的天空变得红彤彤的。而白头山火山口内结冰的湖面也开裂了。白头山横跨中朝边境，是一座界山。

朝中社在另一篇报道中说，上周三，靠近朝韩边境朝鲜一侧区域，电闪雷鸣，普降大雪。朝中社说，这是自然界对金正日的去世伤心悲恸的最好证明。

不过，朝中社没有报道的是，大约就在同一时间，上述区域以南不远的首尔都市圈漆黑的天空下也下起了小雪。

朝韩统一猜想

虽然很多韩国民众希望看到独裁残暴的金家政权倒台，但如果金氏政权垮台后朝鲜陷入崩溃和混乱，没有多少韩国民众愿意承担在这种情况下统一朝韩的成本。

金正日的去世令朝鲜政权崩溃成为一种可能，但由于这一政权并不透明，崩溃能达到什么程度目前尚不清楚。但朝鲜政局哪怕出现最细微的变动都足以在韩国引发有关朝韩统一成本的讨论。

韩国券商友利投资（Woori Investment）的经济学家Sun Yoo说，将朝鲜人均收入提升至韩国一半的水平将需要大约800万亿至1, 000万亿韩圆（约合6, 965.6亿至8, 707亿美元）的资金。以标准普尔评级服务公司（Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service）为代表的信用评级机构告诫说，为了稳定朝鲜所需的大量政府支出将对韩国主权信用评级构成重压。

韩国部分人士呼吁政府预留可以用于朝韩统一的资金。韩国统一部（Ministry of Unification）提议设立一个特别帐户，目标是在20年的时间内募集55万亿韩圆的资金。

苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)经济学家鲁斯(Erik Lueth)在报告中说，对韩国来说，更好的方法是维持低水平负债。据估计，今年韩国主权债务占年度GDP的比重在33.3%左右，而韩国政府目前打算在2013年之前达到收支平衡，并把负债水平降至20%以下。

鲁斯在报告中写道：减少政府负债应该比建立统一基金的性价比更高，因为债务利息很可能高于这只基金经风险因素调整后获得的回报。

期待奇迹

金正日当时是否知道自己病得有多重呢？他当时有没有向一家专门研究干细胞的韩国公司寻求帮助呢？

这些似乎是韩国联合通讯社(Yonhap)上周五一篇报道所暗示的问题。这篇报道说，就在今年9月，一位自称代表金姓人士的韩国宗教人物主动与在韩国证券交易所Kospi上市的生物公司RNL Bio Co.取得过联系。该公司与韩联社都没有对此人进行身份确认。这个人询问该生物公司，是否能以他的名义提取金氏的干细胞并培育新细胞。

这个公司的发言人证实了韩联社的这篇报道，但说不能确认这个联系他们的人的身份。此外，该发言人还说，公司不仅拒绝了这次请求，还拒绝了后来10月份这个人再次提出的同样请求。

本周的葬礼

本周，金正日的葬礼是人们关注的全部焦点。韩国经济研究所(Korea Economic Institute)已经制作了一张备忘单，上面有葬礼上以及未来几周需要关注的10个人，而此时朝鲜正试图维持政权不倒。

除这10个人外，还受到大量关注的是金正日长子金正男(Kim Jong Nam)以及金正日同父异母的弟弟金平一(Kim Pyong Il)是否会亲往平壤吊唁。

金平一曾是金正日掌权最具威胁的竞争对手，但在上世纪70年代，他被派驻东欧，曾在多个大使馆工作，近些年一直生活在波兰。

金正男目前被视作弟弟金正恩的主要对手。金正日指定金正恩为朝鲜政权的接班人。金正男近年来生活在澳门，有时会与记者在那里见面。今年早些时候他曾说，他对于统治朝鲜不感兴趣。

对于那些确实希望探究朝鲜的人们来说，网站NK News的赫尔曼(Luke Herman)给他们提供了一张表格，其中对比了金正日治丧委员会中朝鲜精英人士与赵明录(Jo Myong Rok)治丧委员会成员的官职地位。赵明录曾是朝鲜最高权力机关国防委员会第一副委员长，也是朝鲜最近去世的重要领导人。他在2010年11月去世，是已知的与金正日父亲金日成(Kim Il Sung)一同在第二次世界大战中反抗日本的最后一批人之一。

（更新完成）