【英语财经】蒙古和缅甸：亚洲的投资新热点

For the most part of 2012, Europe and US have been mired with their own fundamental economic weaknesses and persistent political impasse, with no solutions in sight for 2013 or beyond. Excitements among investors, however, are elsewhere. Several frontier markets around the world are becoming investment magnets.The sweetest destinations of all are Mongolia and Myanmar, the M & M in Asia.

Mongolia, the landlocked lower middle-income country sandwiched between Russia and China with a tiny 2.8 million population and a per capital income of $2300, is the talk of the region for the past few years. With the discovery of copper and gold twelve years ago in OyuTolgoi and consecutive plans to develop coal mine TavanTolgoi, investor interests in Mongolia have been unabated, in spite of the limited size of its domestic economy, geopolitical tension with its two big neighbors and harsh winters. On harsh winters: in Ulaanbaatar, expats don't talk about how many years they have spent there, but how many winters they have survived. In my recent trip to Ulaanbaatar three weeks ago, my driver Suyen told me, in straight face, that it was a particularly ※warm§ day, at -16 degree C.

2012 and 2013 are crucial years for Mongolia. In June 2012, the newly established Development Bank of Mongolia managed to pull off a five-year $580 million bond issuance priced below 6% that was 10 times oversubscribed. In November, Mongolia, a country that has been rescued five times by IMF over the past two decades completed its firstever sovereign issuance of $1.5 billion at 4.125% for five-year note and 5.125% for ten-year, again beating all predictions.The election in June 2012 ended the 21-year uninterrupted dominance of the re-fashioned former communist party, now named as Mongolia People's Party and resulted in a fragile coalition between the center-right Democrats and the ultra-left Justice Coalition.

When I was in Ulaanbaatar late September, right after the new government was finally formed after three months of post-election political posturing and maneuvering, the discussions I had with a number of key cabinet ministers and members of parliament were surprisingly practical in nature. The new coalition government, while fragile due to the slim margin it commands in the parliament, has filled the cabinet with a list of experienced and energized ministers. The newer generation of Mongolian politicians, several of whom I know well, are western educated, politically savvy, intellectually curious and passionately dedicated to their causes.

By early 2013, after 12 years since Ivanhoe started active exploration and $5 billion of investments already made by the sponsors, it is likely we will see the start of open pit operations of OyuTolgoi. Initial underground production will probably start late in 2014. The potential involvement of major multilateral development institutions such as EBRD, IFC and MIGA strengthen the project, especially the social and environment safeguard aspects of the project. Once fully operation, OyuTolgoi, is expected to contribute to 35% increase of Mongolia's GDP, and will play a major role in setting Mongolia on the right track towards a high income country. In 2013, we can also expect to see major advancement of the country's ambitious railway plan and related infrastructure development projects.

In the much warmer Myanmar, which would compete with Mongolia for the most talked about investment destination in the region, the difference does not stop at weather. Myanmar is a country with a 60 million population, and strategic location between China and major Southeast Asia countries that is going through a magically rapid reengagement with the world. The World Bank Group opened our new office in Yangon this July, with a new two-year interim strategy approved by our Executive Board in October. Major donor countries such as Japan are stepping in with substantive assistance to solve many roadblocks in sight.

After nearly three decades of relative isolation from the international community, Myanmar needs every assistance it could find from the world, be it capital or technological know-how, but it is well-endowed with natural and agricultural resources. My recent visit to Yangon and Nay PyiDaw, the commercial and political capitals of the country respectively, reveals an economy with a great need for power and basic infrastructure. Only 25% of the country is connected to the national power grid. The country could supply only 70% of the electricity it needs today, in spite of the gas reserves at 22.5 trillion cubic feet. It is a country that has everything in its economic fundamentals but needs everything else to translate these fundamentals into productivity and wealth.

While in Myanmar, I was impressed by the beaming airports in both cities, but much more so by how vibrant and normal life in Yangon seems to be, against what we read in the mainstream Western media about this outcast. The recently built new capital Nay PyiDaw, however, while perfectly designed and manicured, still smells fresh paint and is less lively. Driving between government complexes in Nay Pyidaw, from Ministry of Revenue and Finance to the Ministry of Electric Power for example, feels like driving in Disney World in Orlando from Magic Kingdom to Universal Studio. Everywhere is nice but there is nothing in between other than greenery.

Politically, the former military government and Aung San Suu Kyi's opposition have settled into a well-choreographed routine, with strong mutual interests in making the best out from the international engagement for the country. When I discussed foreign investments with Aung San Suu Kyi in Bangkok in May during her first trip abroad for 25 years, she articulated to me a clear vision on how she sees the role of foreign investments for the country, especially in the area of youth employment. In Nay PyeDaw in September, nearly all of my meetings with half a dozen cabinet ministers were substantive and conducted in English, with nothing lost in translation.

Focusing on the M&M of Asia∫ necessarily means that I am missing several other hot investment destinations in the region, notably Vietnam and the Philippines. Vietnam is getting over its macro problems such as inflation, weakened currency, excessive credit growth, a weak financial sector and high interest rates. The government has embarked on a new round of reforms aiming for fiscal and monetary discipline, as well as structuring and reforms of state-owned enterprises. In Philippines, President Aquino and Secretary Purisima launched ambitious Public Private Partnership (PPP) program two years ago. After some initial delay, the PPP program is finally bringing projects to the bidding stage, notably the NAIA Expressway and LRT Line 1 Extension projects.

In all the discussions in these countries on economic development and foreign investment, China features prominently. For Mongolia, the economic success of the country to a large extent depends on whether it could find a balanced way to handle China, between the increasingly nationalistic attitude towards its towering neighbor to the south and the unusually strong economic linkages where 89% of Mongolia's export finds its way to China. For Myanmar, there is a strong sense that China had a run of almost three decades without much external competition and that its window of opportunity may have passed, now with the broader international community knocking on Myanmar's door. In Vietnam, the government has essentially followed China's path of economic liberalization, without shaking the core of large SOEs or the political upper architecture. While China itself under the new leadership is seriously looking at SOEs and political issues such corruption, Vietnam will have to chart its own way.

Kevin Lu is Director of the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), the private sector investment guarantee arm of the World Bank Group. He is a member of the Emerging Markets Advisory Council at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) based in Washington, DC, as well as a member of the World Economic Forum's Global Agenda Council on China. The Forum also named him a Young Global Leader. This column focuses on policy issues related to international finance and political economy, especially those relevant to the emerging economies. It also examines many fundamental changes that are occurring in the advanced economies, in the context of the significant shifts of economic weight towards emerging markets. The opinions are his own.

凯闻

2012年，欧美在持续的经济衰弱和政治僵局中挣扎，在2013年甚至更长的时间也看不到解决的方案。真正让投资者兴奋的长期投资机会不在这些发达经济体，而是在世界各地的几个前沿新兴市场。在亚洲，像磁铁一样吸引着大量投资者的是蒙古（Mongolia）和缅甸 (Myanmar)，它们被视为亚洲的M&M。

蒙古是一个深居内陆的中等偏下收入国家，夹在俄罗斯和中国之间，只有区区280万人口，人均收入只有2300美元，但这几年成为投资者的热门话题。蒙古开发TavanTolgoi煤矿的计划一直不断，并且12年前在OyuTolgoi发现大量铜矿和金矿。投资者对蒙古一直兴趣高涨，尽管其国内经济规模有限、与两大邻国的地缘政治关系紧张，并且有漫长而酷寒的冬天。和住在乌兰巴托的外国人聊天，问他们在蒙古住了多长时间，他们从来不以“年”计，而是告诉你他们已经在乌兰巴托过了多少个“冬”。我三个星期前探访乌兰巴托，我的司机Suyen有一天一本正经地说今天很“暖和”，而当时有零下16℃。

2012年和2013年对蒙古至关重要。2012年6月，新成立的蒙古开发银行发行了5.8亿美元的五年期债券，利率低于6％，而且是10倍超额认购。2012年11月，蒙古这个在过去20年间五次被IMF解救的国家, 发行了它的第一个15亿美元的主权债券，五年期利率仅为4.125％，十年期5.125％，令人大吃一惊。 2012年6月的选举中蒙古人民党结束了21年的执政，中间偏右的民主党和极左的“正义联盟”（Justice Coalition）组成了一个脆弱的执政联盟。

去年9月下旬，我去乌兰巴托拜访了各党派经过三个月艰苦谈判组成的新政府。在与一些内阁部长和国会议员的讨论中，我发现新的联合政府非常务实。新政府在议会中只占微弱优势，因此比较脆弱，但新的内阁有一大批经验丰富、充满活力的部长。我所熟知的新一代蒙古政治家，大多数受过西方教育、政治敏锐、思想开放，并且对国事充满热情。

经过12年的探矿和50亿美元的投资，OyuToigoi矿的露天开采在2013年初终于要开始了，地下开采可能会在2014年底开始。欧洲复兴开发银行、国际金融公司和世界银行多边投资担保机构的参与加强了项目的社会和环境保障。一旦全面运行，OyuToigoi矿预计对蒙古国内生产总值增长的贡献率将达到35%。在2013年，我们也有望看到该国庞大的铁路计划和相关的基础设施建设项目的重大进展。

缅甸比蒙古暖和多了，但缅甸与蒙古的差别远远不只是天气。缅甸有6000万人口，而且地理位置独特，位于中国及主要的东南亚国家之间。缅甸正在迅速重新融入国际社会。世界银行集团去年7月在仰光开设了新的办事处，其执行董事会在10月批准了一个新的为期两年的对缅甸中期捐助战略。包括日本在内的主要援助国正在扫清障碍加紧实质性援助。

经过了近30年远离国际社会的相对孤立状态后，缅甸需要一切必要的协助，不管资本还是技术。此外，缅甸具有非常丰富的自然、矿产和农业资源。我最近刚刚访问了缅甸的商业中心仰光 （Yangon）和政治中心内比都（ Nay PyiDaw），发现缅甸非常需要电力和基础设施。尽管缅甸有非常丰富的天然气资源，但目前只能提供70％的电力需要，只有25％的地区连接到国家电网。缅甸物资丰富，但需要大量的投资才能把这些物资转换成生产力和财富。

当在缅甸访问的时候，仰光和内比都光鲜亮丽的机场给我留下了深刻的印象，仰光人生气勃勃的生活方式，与我们在西方主流媒体上看到的描述大相径庭。新首都内比都，设计和建造的美轮美奂，甚至可以闻到新鲜油漆的味道。在内比都的政府建筑群里游走（比如从财政部到电力部）就好像从迪斯尼乐园的魔法世界穿行到环球影城。沿途到处是绿色植被，美不胜收。

在政治上，前军政府与昂山素季的反对党在促进缅甸与国际社会的融合上已经达成了默契，因为这符合双方的共同利益。去年5月我在曼谷与昂山素季讨论了缅甸的外国投资状况（这是她25年来第一次出国），她就外国投资对缅甸的利与弊给了我一个非常清晰的表述，尤其是在促进年轻人就业方面的作用。去年9月我还在内比都拜会了好几位新上任的内阁部长，会谈全部用英语进行，没有一个部长需要翻译，而且会谈内容非常有实质性。

这里没有足够的篇幅介绍亚洲的其他几个投资热点，特别是越南和菲律宾。越南正在努力解决其面临的宏观问题，如通货膨胀、货币贬值、信贷增长过快、金融部门脆弱和过高的利率。政府已展开了新一轮的改革，提高财政和货币纪律，以及推动国有企业改革。在菲律宾，阿基诺总统和财政部长普里西马两年前推出了雄心勃勃的基础建设公私合营计划（Public Private Partnership ,PPP）。在拖延了一段时间后，第一批PPP计划项目终于进入了招标阶段，包括NAIA高速公路和轻轨列车1号线扩建项目。

中国自然是一个又躲不过的话题。对于蒙古来说，经济成功在很大程度上取决于是否它能够找到一个平衡的方法来处理和中国的关系。一方面，蒙古民族主义日益高涨，另一方面，蒙古和中国的经济纽带异常紧密，蒙古89％的出口都去往中国。在缅甸，随着大幅度的对外开放，中国在过去30年几乎垄断了对缅甸投资的现象已经一去不复返。在越南，政府基本上遵循了中国的经济自由化但不触动大型国有企业或政治制度的道路，而中国的新任领导人正在认真地研究国有企业和诸如腐败等政治问题，越南可能将不得不勾画自己的蓝图。

（作者凯闻是世界银行集团多边投资担保机构（MIGA）亚太局局长，华盛顿国际金融研究所（IIF）新兴市场顾问委员会委员和达沃斯世界经济论坛全球议程中国理事会委员。本专栏旨在关注与新兴市场和中国最为相关的国际财经政策问题,并在新兴市场日益强大的背景下对西方政治经济体系发生的结构性变化发表评论。文中所述仅代表他的个人观点。

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