【英语生活】Lex专栏：别了，陆克文

Most politicians, noted Harold Macmillan, are undone by developments no manifesto or focus group can anticipate. The tragedy of Kevin Rudd, deposed on Thursday as Australian prime minister, was that there were no “events.” The economy barrelled through the global financial crisis, thanks in large part to China's ferocious appetite for its resources, and an oligopolistic banking system that never had to chase yield in strange places. Then, while politicians elsewhere were squaring up to their banks, Mr Rudd decided to go one better, and take on the miners. By this act of hubris, he becomes a historical curio: the only Australian prime minister to have fought just one election.

Finding ways to slow the exploitation of coal and metals is not, in itself, bad policy. But so bungled was the communication, and so obviously populist the timing – the Labour party, with strongholds of support in regions unblessed by minerals, must hold an election by April – that Mr Rudd's credibility never recovered. Having described the industry's threats of pulling investments as “balderdash” and “bunkum,” he was wrong-footed when they did so. Spending A$39m on an advertising blitz might have been justifiable, had the prime minister not effectively outlawed the practice two years earlier, describing tax-funded ads as “a cancer on democracy.”

Despite some shrill claims from the miners, there is little evidence that Australia has been de-rated by the resource row. The Aussie dollar is the second best-performing G10 currency this month; compared to the S&P 500, Australian equities are more expensive now, on a price/book basis, than three-year average valuations. Still, Julia Gillard, the new prime minister, is in a tricky spot. Diluting a tax designed to raise A$9bn could leave big holes in budgets. Yet the miners, having buried one premier, will not settle for anything less.

英国前首相哈罗德·麦克米伦(Harold Macmillan)曾说过，多数政客是被任何竞选宣言或焦点小组都无法预测的情况赶下台的。对于周四下台的澳大利亚总理陆克文(Kevin Rudd)来说，悲剧在于没有“情况”。澳大利亚经济安然度过全球金融危机——很大程度上得益于中国对澳洲自然资源的旺盛需求，同时也是由于该国银行业体系由少数大银行垄断，从来不需要到陌生的地方去追逐收益。于是，在其它国家的政客们准备对付国内银行之际，陆克文决定胜人一筹，对矿商开征资源暴利税。由于这一狂妄之举，他成为了一个历史上的异类：唯一仅参加一次大选的澳大利亚总理。

想办法减缓开采煤炭和金属资源的步伐，本身不是什么坏政策。但陆克文政府在沟通上弄得一团糟，在时机选择上又表现出如此明显的民粹主义——工党政府最迟必须在明年4月举行大选，而该党“票仓”所在地区没有矿藏——以至于陆克文的可信度再也无望恢复。他对矿业威胁撤销投资不屑一顾，形容其为“胡说”和“瞎话”，结果被该行业的实际行动搞得措手不及。花费3900万澳元进行广告宣传本来找得到理由，但陆克文在两年前实际上将这种做法列为非法，称纳税人资金资助的广告是“民主制度身上的癌症。”

尽管矿商发表了一些刺耳的说法，但没有什么证据表明，澳大利亚因资源问题上的争吵而排名下滑。澳元本月的表现在G10货币中名列第二；按市净率衡量，澳大利亚目前股价高于三年平均估值，与美国基准股指标普500(S&P 500)形成对比。不过，新总理朱莉娅·吉拉德(Julia Gillard)处于一种棘手境地。若要淡化一项原本要筹集90亿澳元的税收，可能使预算产生巨大漏洞。但矿商既然已经把一位总理赶下了台，是不会善罢甘休的。

Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

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