【英语生活】如何玩转危险的黄金游戏

In Part One of this series, I said there was a chance gold might be about to go vertical.

In Part Two, I explained why I don't trust it, and wouldn't want to risk a lot of my money on it.

Where does that leave you?

You can see signs of a gold rush everywhere, from the nonstop TV commercials in the U.S. to the Emirates Palace Hotel in Abu Dhabi, where a vending machine now dispenses gold coins.

If anything, the nine-year gold boom has intensified as traders nervous over the European financial crisis have flocked to the metal's perceived safety. The assets in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), an exchange-traded fund that tracks the price of gold, jumped by more than 10% in May alone.

The question for investors who have remained on the sidelines until now is whether there still is an opportunity to join the stampede -- and, if so, how to do it without getting crushed.

Gold prices have risen nearly fivefold since 2001. Yet, remarkably, some analysts say the rally might still have legs. John LaForge at Ned Davis Research notes that, adjusted for inflation, gold is little over half its peak 1980 price. Charles de Vaulx, the value-minded manager of IVA Worldwide Fund, says gold's long rally has merely put it in line with long-term averages in relation to the stock market.

Hedge-fund titans George Soros and John Paulson share the bullish view. They have big stakes in gold, and have recently invested in smaller mining companies such as Kinross Gold Corp. and NovaGold Resources Inc. in the hope these might jump higher than bigger miners if gold prices continue to rise.

But the long gold rally also is stoking fears of a bubble. While that would augur for more gains in the short term, it also could set the stage for a crash later on. A similar pattern unfolded in the 1970s: gold rallied for most of the decade, peaking in 1980 at around $850 an ounce. Then it plummeted, bottoming out at around $250 in 2001.

The lesson: gold can be dangerous, and its steep rise only makes it more so. John Hydeskov, senior currency analyst at Danske Bank in Copenhagen, warns that gold may be especially vulnerable to a short-term pullback now. Too much speculative money has already chased the futures market higher, he says.

That is why some investors are hoping to thread a needle, making bets they hope will pay off if prices go up, while limiting their losses if the market drops.

One way to do that is to buy call options on the GLD exchange-traded fund. Call options give you the right to buy the fund at a later date if prices rise further, while letting you walk away with only small losses if they tank.

So instead of risking $119 a share on the GLD fund, investors could, for example, pay $16 for $120 call options good until January 2012. That would give them the right to buy the shares at $120 if gold booms, and limit their losses to $16 if gold tanks. (These are per-share values. Options trade in lots of 100.)

The call-option strategy 'is a way of buying exposure cheaply,' says Alan Lancz, a money manager for institutions and wealthy clients in Toledo, Ohio. He says it lets investors use 'a small amount of money to get exposure even when prices are this high.'

'It's one way to avoid losing incredible amounts of money,' adds Larry Glazer, portfolio manager for Mayflower Advisors in Boston. 'At any given moment this thing could have a massive selloff.'

在黄金系列文章中的第一篇中，我说过黄金价格有可能将一飞冲天。

在第二篇中，我解释了自己不信任黄金、不会冒险把很多钱投入其中的原因。

相关报导


这给你留下了什么印象？

你可以在任何地方看到“淘金热”的蛛丝马迹，从美国无休无止的电视广告到阿布扎比的Emirates Palace Hotel酒店──阿布扎比的自动贩卖机中如今掉出来的都是金币。

随着因欧洲金融危机而紧张不安的交易员涌入黄金这个所谓的安全避风港，持续了九年的金价上涨势头只会加剧。仅5月份一个月，跟踪黄金价格的交易所买卖基金SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)中的资产就增长了10%以上。

目前为止仍保持观望的投资者面临的问题是，是否仍有机会加入“淘金热”；如果有机会，如何能在不被踩扁的情况下淘金。

自2001年以来，金价已经涨了近五倍。不过，值得注意的是，一些分析人士说金价或许仍有上涨空间。金融研究公司Ned Davis Research的拉弗吉(John LaForge)说，经通货膨胀因素调整后，目前的金价略高于1980年价格的一半。IVA Worldwide基金的价值型投资经理德维尔克斯(Charles de Vaulx)说，尽管金价经历了长期上涨，但其涨幅也只是与股市的长期平均涨幅处于同一水平而已。

Mark Matcho对冲基金大亨索罗斯(George Soros)和约翰•鲍尔森(John Paulson)也看涨黄金。他们在黄金上投下重注，最近投资了Kinross Gold Corp.和NovaGold Resources Inc.等规模较小的矿业公司，希望在金价继续上涨时，这些公司的股价涨幅有望超过规模较大的矿业公司。

不过，黄金的长期飙升也引发了对泡沫的担心。尽管金价上涨预示着短期内会有更大的收益，却也可能为之后的崩溃埋下祸根。70年代时出现过类似的模式：70年代的大部分时间黄金都在上涨，并在1980年达到了每盎司约850美元的高点；之后黄金暴跌，于2001年触及约每盎司250美元的底部。

从上面的例子可以得出以下教训：黄金可能是危险的，黄金的大幅飙升只会增大它的风险。哥本哈根丹斯克银行(Danske Bank)的高级外汇分析师海迪斯科夫(John Hydeskov)警告说，目前黄金可能尤其容易受到短期回调的影响。他说，太多的投机性资金已经推高了期货市场。

正因为如此，一些投资者希望能够完成这一艰巨的任务：投入的资金能在金价上涨时获得回报，在市场下挫时只遭受有限的损失。

一种方法是购买GLD交易所买卖基金的认购期权。认购期权使你可以在今后价格进一步上涨时有权买到基金，而在价格下挫时只遭受很小的损失。

举例来讲，投资者不应该冒险以每份119美元的价格买进GLD基金，而可以用16美元的价格买进2012年1月到期、执行价为120美元的认购期权。这样，如果金价上涨，投资者就可以用每份120美元的价格买进GLD基金；而如果金价下挫，投资者的损失只有16美元。（上述数字为每份价值。认购期权常常是成百份地进行交易。）

俄亥俄州的机构及大客户投资经理蓝兹(Alan Lancz)说，认购期权战略是以低价建仓的一种方法。他说，这使投资者可以在价格很高的时候，利用小笔资金来建仓。

波士顿金融顾问公司Mayflower Advisors的投资组合经理格拉泽(Larry Glazer)说，这是避免损失大量资金的一种方法，在任何时候，黄金都可能遭遇大规模的抛售。

（本文是黄金系列三部曲《黄金：好的、坏的和丑陋的》中的第三篇。)