【英语生活】我该把房子卖了吗？

Should I sell my home and liberate cash? If I sell today I will have made a 400 per cent return over 12 years. I am not English and will be leaving the country for an extended period, perhaps for ever. However, I don't have to sell and I love my home dearly.
Max Mulhern

Dear Max,

You need to move away from qualitative pros and cons, especially since few of the ones you give stand up to scrutiny. A quantitative estimate of costs and benefits is more useful.

Let's start with your estimate of a 400 per cent return over 12 years. You do not state whether this is before or after inflation, but who cares? It is the likely future return that matters for your decision. You do not know that and neither do I, but I suspect it will be poor.

Make a guess, and add the income you would expect if you let out your house – assuming this is what you would do. Those are the financial benefits of keeping the house.

On the other side of the equation, make a guess as to the return you could earn if you simply sold your home and invested the cash in the best available prospects. Bear in mind that you might even buy a home overseas; this would have the distinct advantage that you could live in it. These are the opportunity costs of retaining your existing house.

So, yes – the opportunity costs will outweigh the likely financial benefits of keeping your home. Fine. You imply that you are wealthy and declare that you love your home. Perhaps this affection is strong enough to outweigh the financial loss, but I doubt it. Behavioural economists warn of the “endowment effect”, in which people irrationally overvalue what they already have – the “bird in the hand” maxim inflated to unwise proportions. So make your choice: but first, figure out how much your sentimentality will cost you.

我应该把房产变现吗？如果我今天把它卖掉，12年后我将得到400%的回报。我不是英国人，而且我要离开这个国家很长一段时间，可能永远都不回来了。但房子并不是非卖不可，我深深地爱着这个家。

马克斯•马尔赫恩(Max Mulhern)

亲爱的马克斯，

不要再定性地分析利与弊了，尤其是在你给出的利弊中几乎没有几点经得起仔细推敲的情况下。对成本与收益进行定量分析会更有用。

让我们从你估算出的12年后400%的回报率说起吧。你没有说明，这个数值是在剔除通胀之前还是之后，但谁会在乎呢？这个未来回报或许关系到你的决定。你不知道回报会有多高，我也不知道，但我猜这个数字将会很低。

你可以猜一个数，再加上房子的预期租金收入——假设你打算出租的话。那么得到的数值就是你保留房子得到的经济效益。

在等式的另一边，猜一下如果你干脆卖掉房子，并以目前最佳方式进行投资，最后能赚到多少钱。别忘了，你可能会在国外购房，这种做法的明显优势在于，你可以住在里面。这是你保留现有房产的机会成本。

所以，是的，机会成本将超过保留房产可能带来的经济效益。没错，你在暗示自己是个有钱人，还表达出了你对房子的爱恋。或许这种爱恋非常强烈，足以让你不去计较经济损失，但我对此表示怀疑。行为经济学家对“禀赋效应”提出警告，根据这一理论，人们会非理性地高估自己已拥有的物品的价值，“双鸟在林不如一鸟在手”这条格言被夸大到了不明智的程度。所以你选吧，但首先你要计算出，感情用事会让你付出多大代价。

译者/章晴