【英语生活】为表白不怕流落街头？

Dear Economist:

I am a third-year university student and I share a flat with a student on the same course as me from the year below. We are good friends, but I, alas, want us to be more than that. The risks of my confessing my feelings are quite high. If it works out, I have a girlfriend; if it doesn't, I'll end up homeless, looking for an (almost prohibitively expensive one-person) apartment, having lost my best friend. If I keep her in the dark I'm guaranteed to have a roof over my head for the two remaining years. Can economics provide an answer to my dilemma?
Unnamed student, London

Dear student,

The cost-benefit analysis here is deceptive, so let me walk you through it. Your mistake has been to frame your dilemma as a static choice problem: either you confess now and take your chances, or you never confess.

That is wrong. There is, dare I say it, a third way. Simply wait and see whether anything is clearer tomorrow, or the next day, or the day after that.

In technical terms, you have an option on making a pass at this lucky lady, and you will continue to have that option until either you actually do so, or until either you or she falls for someone else. The option is valuable and should not be exercised lightly, and thus expended. Option valuation models suggest that you should make your move only if you are absolutely sure (you clearly are not) or if other suitors are circling and your option is about to vanish anyway.

Even in the latter circumstance, you shouldn't make your move if you feel the odds are against you. I suspect they are. The chances are that this young woman knows exactly how you feel. Since she has done nothing to encourage you, I expect she is praying you'll keep your feelings to yourself.

亲爱的经济学家：

我是名大三学生，和一个与我同专业但低一年级的学生合租一套公寓。我们是好朋友，但是，唉，我希望我们的关系能更近一层。但我表白心迹的风险非常高。如果成功了，我就会有一个女朋友；如果失败，我最后将无家可归，要去寻找（几乎昂贵得难以承受的单人）公寓，同时还失去了最好的朋友。如果对她隐瞒情感，我可以确保自己在接下来的两年内有栖身之处。经济学能为我的两难困境提供一种解决办法吗？

匿名学生，伦敦

亲爱的学生，

这里用成本效益分析是靠不住的，那么让我来帮你理清问题吧。你的错误是，一直将你的困境设定为一个静态选择的问题：要么现在坦白，碰碰运气，要么永远都不说。

这是错的。我敢说，还有第三条路，就是再等等，看看明天、后天、或大后天，事情是否会更明了一些。

从技术角度来讲，你拥有是否对这位可爱的女士展开追求的选择权。而且，在你真的这样做，或者在你或她爱上别的什么人之前，你都一直拥有这个权力。这种选择权很宝贵，你不应轻易行使，从而浪费掉。选择权评估模型认为，只有在你绝对有把握时（现在你很显然没有），或是周围出现其他追求者，你的选择权不管怎样都即将消失的情况下，你才应当采取行动。

就算是在后一种情况下，如果感到形势对你不利，你也不应有所行动。我觉得形势的确对你不利。很有可能这位年轻的女士完全清楚你的感受。鉴于她丝毫没有鼓励你的行动，我想她正在祈祷，你可千万别表白。

译者/陈云飞