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2010-5-30 09:01
When my neighbour was desperately searching for staff to run her guesthouse, I, after due deliberation about whether to get involved and much trouble, eventually found her a married couple who complied with all her demands. She now thanks God for bringing them to her.
Do you think she's confusing me with God? If so, should I gently remind her that I'm a simple earthly being and such high praise is making me feel a little uncomfortable? I would prefer you not to use my real name; I don't want any more people contacting me in search of miracles. In any case, my husband thinks this business has gone to my head. Mrs S., South Africa Dear Mrs S. I would say that a more likely explanation of your neighbour's actions is that she is trying to ingratiate herself with God, not you. I can imagine how aggravating this is for you, given the trouble you've gone to, but this attitude makes sense if God is subject to flattery. God is, after all, omnipotent, so it must be better to have God on your side than plain Mrs S. The question is, does God pay attention to supplicants? No less an authority than Nobel laureate James Heckman has investigated the answer using highly fashionable statistical techniques. (Some claim that Heckman's paper is a parody of sloppy statistical practice. I couldn't possibly comment.) Heckman observes that “the empirical conclusion from this analysis is important. A little prayer does no good and may make things worse. Much prayer helps a lot.” This is fascinating, suggesting that sit-on-the-fence agnostics are choosing a very foolish approach. Your neighbour has taken this lesson to heart: given the importance of extremely fervent prayer, small wonder that she is giving God all the credit for your hard work. 当我的邻居四处物色人手帮她经营旅馆时,我在慎重考虑是否介入后,经过一番辛苦,帮她找到了一对完全符合要求的夫妇。她现在感谢上帝把他们送到她身边。
你看她是不是把我和上帝搞混了?如果是的话,我是不是应该委婉地提醒她,我只是一介俗人,她这么抬举我让我有点不知所措?在这里,我宁愿不用真名,我不希望再有人为了寻找奇迹与我接触。不管怎么说,我丈夫认为我已被这件事冲昏了头脑。 南非 S女士 亲爱的S女士: 我得说,对于你的邻居的行为,一个更合理的解释是:她试图讨好的是上帝,而不是你。鉴于你付出的辛苦,我想象得到,这会让你非常恼火。但假如要讨好的对象是上帝,这种态度是可以理解的。毕竟,上帝是无所不能的,因此,有上帝罩着,肯定比有凡人S女士相帮要好。 问题是,上帝会垂顾向他祈求的人吗?利用时行的统计学方法研究过这个问题的,不止诺贝尔奖得主詹姆斯•赫克曼(James Heckman)一位权威。(有些人声称,赫克曼的论文是拙劣的统计学实践的戏作。对此我不好评判。) 赫克曼指出:“从这一分析中得出的实证结论十分重要。少量的祈祷无济于事,可能使事情变得更糟。大量祈祷却很有用。”这令人着迷,说明骑墙派的不可知论者正选择一种非常愚蠢的方法。你的邻居将这一点谨记在心:鉴于极度虔诚祈祷的重要性,难怪她会把你的功劳归于上帝。 译者/岱嵩 |