【英语生活】麦凯恩犯傻

Time is running out for John McCain's campaign. He is behind in the polls and the gap is widening. His campaign has decided to shut up shop in Michigan, a state it recently believed it could win. Tomorrow's televised debate with Barack Obama – just one more encounter is scheduled, on October 15 – has therefore assumed an even greater significance. Mr McCain must stop the rot. His disadvantages in the race are such that it is difficult now to see how.Mr McCain finds himself in a curious position. He entered the race as an experienced and well-known candidate, much-liked, with years in the Senate behind him. He was running against a virtually unknown novice, with barely any legislative achievements to boast of – and a black man with a funny name, to boot. Mr McCain was the known quantity, the safer choice, literally the elder statesman and Mr Obama had everything to prove. Yet with four weeks to go, the election is being run by both sides as though the opposite were true.

Mr Obama looks unhurried and presidential, exuding natural authority. He is running as though he were the popular incumbent. Meanwhile, the eager Mr McCain dashes to and fro, hoping to shake things up, striving for attention with one daring stroke after another.

His boldest move, of course, was to select Sarah Palin as his running-mate. (Yawns had greeted the announcement that Joe Biden would be Mr Obama's choice.) That wild ride now appears to be at an end – to little net effect.

To begin with, the nomination of Ms Palin was a great success and conceivably an election-winner. She thrilled the conservative base of the Republican party and turned the heads of many an independent with her speech at the St Paul convention. Democrats sealed her triumphant entry to national politics by expressing their contempt for her and for people like her – all of whom have votes. Mr McCain edged ahead in the polls.

Then came the television interviews, awful beyond belief. Democrats rejoiced, Republicans hid under their blankets. Much of the nation turned to last Thursday's vice-presidential debate with voyeuristic anticipation: what would it be like to see a politician reduced to tears on live television? Ms Palin bounced back with a confident and comfortable performance. It was too late to undo the harm of the past week or two: she remains a modest net plus for Mr McCain, because of her appeal to the party's base, but her power to attract independents is diminished. Mr McCain, for all the excitement, is back where he started.

Mr McCain's next audacious move was his attempt to lead efforts in Congress to pass a financial rescue plan. Promising to suspend his campaign, he rushed back to Washington. His intervention was embarrassingly ineffective. First he was outmanoeuvred by Democrats, who announced (prematurely, as it turned out) that they had reached agreement without him; and then by Republicans in the House of Representatives, who threw out the revised deal to which he had half-heartedly attached his support. He looked irrelevant at best; at worst, an obstacle to progress, seeking only to score political points.

Mr Obama characteristically rose above it all. Did he have a plan of his own? No. Did he exert much influence on the plan that eventually passed the House? No. The youngster won praise for standing gravely to one side. (And you must admit, he made it look effortless.) Mr McCain, with the wisdom of years, made a fool of himself by rolling up his sleeves and getting in everyone's way.

The fact that the country has a uniquely unpopular president helps to explain this reversal of roles. Mr McCain has had to run against the administration of George W. Bush as well as against Mr Obama. As an avowed maverick, he could do that well enough – but it is difficult to be both a maverick and a safe choice.

In this subtle way, the unpopularity of the Bush administration undercut Mr McCain's advantage in seniority. It is not so much that Mr McCain is branded with the record of the Bush administration. The Obama campaign's constant charge that McCain is McSame seems to me to have mostly fallen flat. The problem is that in both opposing Mr Obama and putting distance between himself and President Bush, Mr McCain became an unknown quantity and hence a risk.

The abruptly worsening economic crisis had a reinforcing effect. It pushed the burden of explanation away from the Democratic contender, whose anti-market talking-points blend easily with the popular mood, and towards the Republican, now obliged to clarify his support for deregulation and other dubious doctrines. Never very convincing on economic issues, this is something Mr McCain has struggled to do.

Circumstances, in short, gave Mr McCain an uphill task. Give Mr Obama credit for having the wit to see it: he has spent the past few weeks watching his opponents wear themselves out. Mr McCain's temperament redoubled his difficulties. Voters can tolerate only so much unpredictability in a politician. Zeal to reform government is fine. A passion to win difficult wars can be admirable. A daring taste in running mates is refreshing. All of the above, however, begins to make people nervous. Voters start to wonder if orthodoxy is being defied for its own sake. They wonder if it all hangs together. They look out for gimmicks and mistakes: there have been plenty of both. They start to use words like “erratic”.

The electorate may not know Mr Obama, but they seem inclined to trust him. Given everything else, that is all it will take.

对于约翰•麦凯恩(John McCain)的竞选活动来说，时间已经不多了。他在民调中输人一筹，并且差距正在扩大。他的阵营已决定放弃最近还以为有望获胜的密歇根州。今日与巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)的电视辩论因此具有更加重要的意义（此外他们还有一场较量，安排在10月15日举行）。麦凯恩必须收住下滑的脚步。他在竞选中明显处于劣势，看来已很难扳回。麦凯恩发现自己处于奇怪的境地。他作为一名经验丰富的知名候选人参选，为许多人所喜欢，拥有在参议院工作多年的经验。他的对手则是初出茅庐，几乎不为人所知，在立法上没有点滴成就可以夸耀，而且还是一位有着奇怪名字的黑人。麦凯恩是“已知数”，是更加安全的人选，堪称政界元老，而奥巴马事事都有待证明。然而，在距离大选还有4周的时候，双方的竞选形势对比却恰恰相反。

奥巴马显得从容不迫，有总统气势，散发出天生的威信，好像是受人欢迎的现任总统。与此同时，急切的麦凯恩横冲直撞，希望重整局面，并接连打出重拳来吸引人们的注意力。

当然，他最大胆的举措就是选择莎拉•佩林(Sarah Palin)作为竞选伙伴。（奥巴马选择乔•拜登(Joe Biden)的消息则让人们兴致全无。）这一奇招如今看来已经用完了——净效应微乎其微。

一开始，提名佩林获得了巨大成功，人们认为这有可能让他们在竞选中获胜。她在圣保罗大会上的演讲，令共和党的基础派别保守派激动不已，也让许多中间派点头称是。民主党封住了她通往全国政治舞台的胜利之路，他们对她和像她一样的人嗤之以鼻——所有这些人都握有选票。麦凯恩在民调中取得微弱优势。

接着是电视采访，情景糟得让人难以置信。民主党人欢喜不已，共和党人蒙羞。上周四，许多人带着偷窥的心理，观看副总统辩论。他们想，一位政治家在电视直播现场被惹得伤心落泪会是什么情景呢？佩林迅速恢复元气，表现得自信而轻松。修复过去一周或两周所造成的损害却已太晚：她对于麦凯恩仍是轻微的净效应，因为她对共和党选民具有吸引力，但对中间派的吸引力减弱了。激动过后，麦凯恩又回到了起点。

麦凯恩的下一步大胆行动是试图在国会发挥领导作用，推动金融救援计划的通过。他暂停竞选，匆忙赶回华盛顿。令人难堪的是，他的插手毫无作用。他先是栽在民主党人手里，后者宣称（事实证明这么说早了一点），在没有他的情况下，他们已经达成共识；接着又栽在众议院的共和党人手上，他们抛出修订后的方案，对该方案他并未全力支持。往好了说，他显得无关紧要；往坏了说，他是进步的障碍，不过是为了谋求政治上的加分。

奥巴马卓然地超脱了这一切。他提出自己的方案了吗？没有。他对国会最后通过的方案施加影响了吗？没有。这位年轻的候选人因立场坚定而受到称赞。（你必须承认，他这么做来毫不费劲。）麦凯恩虽有岁月的智慧，却把自己弄得像个傻瓜：他捋起袖子，挡住了每个人的去路。

当今美国有一位特别不受民众欢迎的总统，有助于解释这种角色的颠倒。麦凯恩必须同时应对布什政府和奥巴马。他自认是一位特立独行的人，他确实可以那么做——但是一位特立独行的人很难同时是安全的人选。

以这种微妙的方式，布什政府的不受欢迎削弱了麦凯恩在资历上的优势。并不完全是布什政府的执政记录在麦凯恩身上打下了烙印。奥巴马阵营一再攻击麦凯恩是“麦沿袭”(McSame)的做法，在我看来没有多大用处。问题在于麦凯恩既要对抗奥巴马，又要与布什拉开距离，他因此成为了一个“未知数”，因而也是一个风险。

经济危机的突然恶化产生了增强效应。民主党候选人无需进行解释，其反市场论调与大众情绪一拍即合。反观共和党候选人，如今他必须解释对于放松监管及其它可疑教条的支持。在经济问题上从来不曾让人十分信服，这是麦凯恩的艰难所在。

简而言之，时势让麦凯恩陷于艰难境地。奥巴马具有静观的智慧：过去几周，他一直在观察对手们如何把自己弄得筋疲力尽。麦凯恩的性情使自己困难加倍。选民们只能容忍在政治家身上有一定的不可预测性。热心改革政府是好事；想打赢艰苦的战争令人钦佩；在挑选竞选伙伴上勇于尝试让人耳目一新。然而，所有这一切开始让人们紧张。选民们开始怀疑，正统学说是否因为自身的原因而受到挑战？他们怀疑，它是否完全一致？他们留心察看花招和错误：两者都不少。他们开始使用“反复无常”这样的词语。

选民或许不了解奥巴马，但他们似乎愿意相信他。综合所有其它因素，这一点才是最重要的。

译者/岱嵩