【英语生活】趁着危机扩张

The statistics say the economy is down just 5 per cent from its peak. From where I sit it feels a lot worse. Most companies I know have seen revenues fall by anything up to 20 per cent - and for a few the decline has been even more savage. No one I talk to can remember a tougher time to be in business.

So what can you do when your top line gets eviscerated? First of all, you cut costs like a dervish - just to stay solvent. But you cannot maintain that survival mentality forever. At some point every organisation has to progress or disintegrate. And in shrinking industries, for most businessess there is only one way to expand: you have to take market share.

In the Darwinian world of capitalism, during downturns plenty of weaker operators cease trading or choose to sell up. The priority for the ambitious is to be on the other side of that transaction, and seize the failing concern's customers, or simply buy its assets. A distributor we part-own has just closed a deal to bolt on a smaller rival's customer base. The additional volume will make an immediate contribution to our bottom line - while as a standalone entity the rival was too small to be profitable. For us the payback on our investment should be less than two years - even assuming no respite from these tough conditions.

Another of our holdings has snapped up a small competitor that went bust this year. We were able to streamline affairs rapidly by using our production, accounting, IT, purchasing, training, HR and marketing resources across both operations. I am hopeful that the positive cashflow from this acquisition will refund our purchase price within 12 months. Such apparent bargains are rare, but they do come up occasionally.

These types of opportunity are the result of tumultuous circumstances. Badly managed, heavily indebted and structurally unsound companies are sadly falling by the wayside like victims of the plague. And while capital is scarce, the actual cost of these sorts of deal is often modest compared with the price they would have commanded two years ago. The deciding factors in making a success of such moves are the ability to move swiftly - and having industrial logic on your side. You must be able to integrate any purchase and derive genuine synergies efficiently. This is not a forgiving climate if you overreach and under-deliver.

It takes bold vision to assume the additional risk of such manoeuvres in this ferocious storm. We may be too early: the downturn could get even bloodier. And there are plenty of us who have been battered and worry that we might have lost our nerve. But I believe now is the time to consider recharging the entrepreneurial batteries, and take the chance to consolidate - if you have the confidence, the cash and the people. As General Foch said during the battle of the Marne: "Hard pressed to my right; my left is in retreat; my centre is yielding. Situation excellent. Attack!"

There are all sorts of forced sellers out there, distressed companies that have breached bank covenants or are chronically lossmaking, with exhausted or insolvent owners. Buildings, contracts, equipment, stock - all manner of assets can be had - in some instances for cents on the dollar. The process is the market - as ever, self-correcting. Rampant overcapacity, from car manufacture to brewing, is being eliminated. This permits the winning players to exercise more pricing power, use operational gearing and squeeze economies of scale to deliver returns.

Inevitably, the hardest hit sectors - such as retail and financial services - probably offer the best value: if you have the balls to double up, that is.

Not all such initiatives have to be acquisitions. They could be organic growth plans - product launches, new hires or major capital expenditure. There is abundant human talent available, and property galore. But you need a superior business model and an appetite for hard work to cope with the challenges. No one is saying it is easy: finding and executing the right corporate purchases is an art, and requires lots of luck. But it sure beats stagnation.

lukej@riskcapitalpartners.com The writer is chairman of Channel 4 and runs Risk Capital Partners, a private equity firm

统计数据显示，经济仅从峰值下滑了5%。但就我了解到的看，情况可能糟糕得多。我所知的大多数企业，营收均下降了至多20%——某些企业的降幅甚至更高。与我交谈的人都认为，眼下是商界最困难的时期。

那么当营收大幅下降时，你能够做些什么呢？首先，你要像个苦行僧一样削减成本——这只是为了保持偿债能力。不过，你不能永远保持这种苟且求生的心态。到了一定阶段，每家企业都必须做出抉择，要么发展要么破产。而各行各业日益收缩之时，大多数企业的扩张方式只有一种：你必须抢占市场份额。

资本主义弱肉强食的世界里，在经济低迷时期会有大量较为弱小的经营者停止营业或选择出售。对那些有抱负的经营者来说，当务之急是站到交易的另一边，抢占破产企业的客户，或只是收购其资产。我们拥有部分股份的一家分销商刚刚敲定一笔交易，锁定了一家较小规模的竞争对手的客户群。营业额的增加很快就会对我们的利润做出贡献——尽管作为一家独立实体，该竞争对手因规模太小而无法实现盈利。对我们而言，这笔交易应该不到两年就能回本——即使眼下的艰难局面未出现任何缓解。

我们持股的另一家企业收购了一家于今年破产的小型竞争对手。我们能够利用自身的生产、会计、IT、采购、培训、人力资源和营销等资源来迅速优化这两家企业间的事务。我希望，此次收购带来的正现金流会让我们在12个月内回本。这类有目共睹的好买卖虽然罕见，但确实会偶尔出现。

这类机会是市况动荡的结果。与倒在瘟疫中的受害者一样，管理糟糕、负债累累和结构不健全的企业令人遗憾地中途出局了。尽管如今资金匮乏，但此类交易的实际成本与两年前相比往往并不高。收购取得成功的决定性因素，在于有能力迅速行动、并遵循行业逻辑。你必须能够有效地整合任何收购，并从中获得真正的协同效应。如果你目标过多而兑现太少，市场不会对此宽恕。

我们要做到有勇有谋，这样才能承担起在这场猛烈风暴中实施并购策略带来的额外风险。我们可能会行动得太早：经济低迷可能会加重。我们有许多人已遭受过打击，并担心自己可能已丧失勇气。但我相信，如果你有信心、资金和人员，那么现在是时候考虑重振企业家精神、抓住机会实施整合了。正如福煦元帅(General Foch)在马恩河战役期间所说的：“我的右翼吃紧，我的左翼在回收，我的中军在退让。形势大好！进攻！”

被迫遭出售企业的多种多样：这些境况不佳的企业或违反了与银行的约定，或长期陷入亏损；其所有者或身心俱疲，或无力偿债。楼宇、合同、设备、股票等各式资产，在某些情况下可以很低的折扣价收购。和过去一样，这个过程是市场的自我修正。从汽车制造业到酿酒业，各个行业严重的产能过剩正被消除。这使得赢家可行使更多的定价权、运用经营杠杆并力求通过规模经济来获取回报。

可以预料的是，零售业和金融服务业等受打击最严重的行业，很可能提供了最佳的价值：如果你有可用于收购的资金，那它们就是最好的机会。

此类积极之举并不一定就是指收购。它们还可以是自然增长计划——发布产品、招聘新员工或重大资本开支。市场上的优秀人才和资产都很充裕。但是，你需要建立卓越的商业模式和艰苦工作的欲望来应对挑战。没人会认为这是件容易的事：发现并正确实施企业收购是门艺术，需要大量的运气。不过，此类举措必将打破眼下的萧条局面。

本文作者是英国第四频道(Channel 4)董事长，并经营着私人股本集团Risk Capital Partners。



译者/君悦