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2012-4-23 06:28
The release last week of softer than expected Chinese growth data triggered a fresh bout of speculation that the country’s economy could be heading for a “hard landing”. But should investors worry?
David Shairp at JPMorgan Asset Management says that while there are signs that China is heading for a soft landing, it is too soon to sound the all-clear. “The Achilles heel of this economy – ironically – is the trade sector,” he says. “For an economy that has developed strongly over the past three decades, thanks to export-led industrialisation, the main risk to a soft landing now lies in a sharper export slowdown. There are some tentative signs that demand is recovering, with the PMI orders data ticking up, declines in inventories of raw materials and bank credit improving. “But while it may well be that China’s economy is bottoming out, the vagaries of post-lunar new year data mean it will be some time before the growth outlook is clarified. The most likely outcome is a ‘soft’ landing but the risk of a ‘harder’ landing remains significant. Indeed, unless the authorities ease policy further, a more unpleasant outcome could occur.” Nikolaus Keis, economist at UniCredit, agrees that the GDP data emphasise the necessity for further policy action by the Chinese authorities to boost domestic demand. “GDP growth at about 8 per cent is generally thought to be the threshold at which enough job creation for new entrants into China’s labour market can be assured,” he says. “We expect the reserve requirement rate for banks to be lowered by an additional 150-200 basis points over the coming months. A cut in key interest rates is also an option, as are further selective fiscal policy measures – although definitely not another huge stimulus programme like that rolled out in mid-2009. “Continued or intensified policy accommodation is the most important factor why our money is still on a “soft-landing scenario”. It is combined with our expectation that the drag of net exports on GDP growth should abate, given signs of stabilisation and subsequent recovery of the global economy, namely the US, and the defusing of the debt crisis in Europe.” Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, is even more bullish on the outlook for consumption. “Apparently the windfall from falling food prices in China did not pass through fast enough for households to act on it by the end of the first quarter – so consumer spending did not rise over the period,” he says. “But this pick-up in spending is inevitable, although it may take longer to materialise than we had initially expected. People need time to realise that they have more money left over after they have eaten. “Slowing the rate of food price increases is the most potent economic stimulus for this huge nation, where 1.3bn people spend 35-45 per cent of their earnings on food. Just as petrol price rises crowd out discretionary spending in New York and London, food price surges squash spending in China. Look for consumer demand to accelerate soon, boosting second-quarter GDP growth.” 您可能感兴趣的文章：
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中国上周公布的增长数据逊于预期，引发新一轮有关中国经济可能发生“硬着陆”的猜测。对此，投资者应当感到担忧吗？
摩根大通资产管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)的戴维?谢普(David Shairp)表示，尽管许多迹象表明中国经济将实现软着陆，但目前远不到解除警报的时候。 “具有讽刺意味的是，中国经济的致命要害恰好是贸易领域，”他表示。“得益于出口驱动的工业化，中国经济过去三十年发展迅猛。眼下，可能导致经济无法实现软着陆的主要风险在于出口下滑幅度加大。目前已出现需求回升的初步迹象：采购经理指数(PMI)中的订单数据有所改善，原材料库存在减少，而银行信贷也在好转。” “但是，尽管中国经济很可能正在触底回升，春节后各种怪异的数据却表明，一段时间之后我们才能看清中国经济的增长前景。最有可能发生的结果是‘软着陆’，但‘比较硬地着陆’的风险仍然不容忽视。实际上，除非当局进一步放松政策，否则可能会发生更糟糕的后果。” 意大利裕信银行(UniCredit)经济学家尼古劳斯?凯斯(Nikolaus Keis)也认为，国内生产总值(GDP)数据说明中国当局有必要采取进一步的政策行动，以刺激国内需求。 “人们通常认为，8%是中国GDP增长率的一个临界点，只有达到这个‘门槛’，才能保证为劳动力市场新增人员提供足够多的工作岗位，”他表示。“我们预计，未来几个月，中国将把银行存款准备金率再调低150至200个基点。调低关键利率也是一种选择，此外也有可能再出台选择性财政政策措施——尽管绝不会是2009年中庞大刺激计划的翻版。” “政策宽松度持续或加大，是我们的资金仍然押注‘软着陆结果’的最重要因素。另一个因素是我们的预测——鉴于全球经济、最重要的是美国经济出现企稳并复苏的迹象，以及欧洲债务危机出现缓和迹象，净出口对中国GDP增长率的拖累作用应会减弱。” 高频经济公司(High Frequency Economics)首席经济学家卡尔?温伯格(Carl Weinberg)对中国消费增长前景更为乐观。他表示，“很明显，因为食品价格下跌而省下的钱，中国家庭在第一季度结束前还没来得及做出相应的反应，因此这段时期消费支出未见增长。” “但是，消费开支增加的趋势是不可避免的，尽管可能会发生得比我们先前预测的要晚一些。人们意识到购买食品之后还富余更多的闲钱，是需要时间的。” “中国是一个有着13亿人口的大国，人们在吃喝上的开支占到收入水平的35%至45%。对于这样的国家，减缓食品价格上涨速度是最有效的经济刺激。正如汽油涨价会挤压纽约人和伦敦人的可支配开支，食品价格猛涨也会挤压中国人在其他方面的开支。我们预计消费需求不久后就会加速上升，从而推高第二季度GDP增长率。” 译者/邢嵬 您可能感兴趣的文章：
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