【英语生活】我要不要“大跃进”？

I was recently given notice that my position will be eliminated at the end of the month. My employer is offering two months' severance.

I'm thinking about changing industries, from finance to clean tech, and moving from the US to Europe. I'm in my late twenties, single, and able to relocate – something less likely to be the case after my next position.

Making such a drastic change may prove difficult and take longer than two months. On the other hand, I can stay here and take a job in the same industry relatively quickly. Should I go big and risk a long unemployment or play it safe and take a job now?

Jeremy

Dear Jeremy,

“Behavioural economics” work on the boundary between psychology and economics offers relevant insights here. Unfortunately, it provides two entirely contradictory messages.

On one hand, you may be suffering from “hyperbolic discounting” – a tendency to weigh immediate costs too heavily and ignore longer-term benefits. You have three or four decades ahead of you, and yet you are focusing on a few weeks' unemployment.

On the other hand, economist Johannes Spinnewijn has discovered that job-searchers tend to be far too optimistic about their chances of finding a new job quickly. So you are probably underestimating the risks at the same time as you focus too much upon them.

So let me put aside the contradictions of behavioural economics and rely instead on economic history. Experience suggests that grand transformative projects – Mao's Great Leap Forward, the UK's nuclear power “jackpot” – end in disaster. A gradual approach is better. Your own plan is to switch industries and continents from a precarious position on the dole. Would it really be impossible to reach your dream career step by step instead?

亲爱的经济学家：

我最近得到通知，我的职位将在本月底被取消。我的雇主将向我支付两个月的遣散费。

我在考虑转行，从金融转向清洁技术行业，并且从美国搬到欧洲。我现在二十大几，单身，还有能力迁移——在下一份工作之后，就不太可能有这种能力了。

如此重大的转变可能会被证明是困难的，而且要花费两个月以上的时间。要么，我可以继续待在这里，相对较快地在金融业找到一份工作。我应该胸怀大志、冒可能会长时间失业的风险；还是应该求稳，先找一份工作呢？

杰里米(Jeremy)

亲爱的杰里米，

将心理学与经济学相结合的“行为经济学”，提供了这方面的见解。不幸的是，它提供了两个截然相反的信息。

一方面，你有可能面临“双曲线贴现”——即有过分看重眼前成本、忽视较长期收益的倾向。你今后还有三四十年的职业生涯，但你只关注眼下几周时间的失业。

另一方面，经济学家约翰内斯•斯平耐维恩(Johannes Spinnewijn)发现，求职者往往对于自己能很快找到一份新工作的几率太过乐观。所以，你在过于关注风险的同时，或许也在低估风险。

所以，让我们撇开行为经济学自相矛盾的理论，来看看经济学历史吧。历史经验告诉我们，伟大的变革性项目——比如毛泽东的大跃进(Great Leap Forward)、英国的核能“赌注”——均以灾难性的失败告终。渐进的方式会更好。你的计划是在依靠救济金这种不稳定的处境下，变更自己所在的行业与工作的大陆。难道你真的不可能一步步地实现你梦想的职业生涯吗？

译者/董琴