【英语中国】中国高铁能驶多快？

At Siemens’train-making plant in Uerdingen, near Düsseldorf, engineers wear 3-D spectacles as they examine detailed projections of their company’s latest designs. The facility lets them rotate multi-dimensional projections of the train and its components to see how easily they can be maintained, how comfortable the driver will be and other minute details.

Similarly impressive work is undertaken at General Electric’s main locomotive plant in Erie, Pennsylvania, where the company works to cut fuel consumption and develop hybrid, power-saving techniques.

The world’s big-three passenger train manufacturers – Siemens, France’s Alstom and Canada’s Bombardier – along with GE and Caterpillar’s EMD Division, the dominant forces in diesel locomotives, have long bet advanced technology would keep them on top of the world’s rail supply market. All have transferred some technology to Chinese partners, largely trusting their designs will not be misused to develop other products.

All argue that, while their products might cost more to buy than those from emerging economies, their superior technology makes them cheaper and more reliable.

But the results of the latest rail market report commissioned by Unife, the European railway industry association, raise the possibility that the big manufacturers could lose market share to cheaper Chinese products.

According to Peter Ulrich, the Boston Consulting Group partner who oversaw production of the report, the question for the big rich world manufacturers is no longer how they should position themselves in the Chinese market. “It’s also: ‘How do I position myself with the Chinese or against the Chinese outside China?’ ” Mr Ulrich says.

The dilemma has already faced Siemens after it initially bid to supply high-speed trains for Saudi Arabia’s inaugural high-speed rail project – between Mecca and Medina – then instead decided to join a Chinese-led consortium.

Chinese manufacturers are expected to challenge to build infrastructure and supply trains in emerging markets, such as Brazil, Vietnam and South Africa, which are considering developing high-speed rail services. The country’s trainmakers could be natural choices to supply diesel locomotives to the many railways being built or modernised by Chinese companies in Africa.

Such developing markets may not feel their needs are met by sophisticated European and North American products, Mr Ulrich says.

But China’s suppliers face uncertainties. While there are many Chinese-built high-speed trains in China, all current models are based on European or Japanese technology, and under the technology transfer agreements, exported trains must be new and cannot be based on this.

According to Henry Posner, a US-based railway investor with experience of Africa, reliability problems have also been reported with some Chinese-built diesel locomotives exported to African countries.

European and North American suppliers’ technology is expected to retain an edge for some time.

“With European suppliers, with some products it’s taken time for us to develop the maintainability and reliability of our products,” Michael Clausecker, director-general of Unife, says. “There’s still a gap.”

Lorenzo Simonelli, chief executive of GE’s transportation division, hopes there will be space in the marketplace for all the suppliers. His company has some joint ventures with Chinese suppliers, as well as competing with them elsewhere.

“We focus on technology and making sure we provide what customers say they need,” he says.

Yet Mr Ulrich’s study predicts a slowdown in average annual growth rates in Asia’s rail markets to just 2.5 per cent in the period to 2015-16. That could leave factories supplying China’s high-speed network with spare capacity. “Those companies will look for opportunities outside China,” Mr Ulrich says.

在德国杜塞尔多夫附近的乌丁根(Uerdingen)，西门子(Siemens)火车制造厂的工程师们带着3D眼镜，审视着公司最新火车设计的详细投影图。这种设备让工程师们可以转动火车及零部件的多维影像，了解维护的难易程度，司机的舒适程度，以及其它各种细节。

在美国宾夕法尼亚州伊利市，通用电气(General Electric)的主要机车厂也同样令人印象深刻。通用电气的这家工厂致力于减少燃料消耗，开发混合动力节能技术。

作为柴油机车领域的主导力量，世界三大客运列车制造商——西门子、法国阿尔斯通(Alstom)和加拿大庞巴迪(Bombardier)，以及通用电气和卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)电动机车部(EMD Division)早已认定，先进技术会让它们处在全球铁路供应市场的最高端。所有这些公司都把部分技术转让给了中国合作伙伴，很大程度上是因为它们相信，自己的设计不会被滥用于开发其它产品。

它们都表示，尽管它们产品的售价可能高于新兴经济体的产品，但考虑到它们先进的技术，这些产品其实更廉价，而且更可靠。

但是欧洲铁路行业协会(Unife)发布的最新铁路市场报告表明，更廉价的中国产品很有可能挤占这些大型制造商的市场份额。

负责监制报告的波士顿咨询集团(Boston Consulting Group)合伙人彼得?乌尔里希(Peter Ulrich)表示，大型富裕国家制造商的问题不再是如何在中国市场定位，“而是在中国以外的市场选择与中国合作还是竞争”。

西门子已经遭遇了这种窘境——它最初独立竞标沙特阿拉伯首个高速列车项目（从麦加至麦地那）的高速列车供应，但随后决定加入中资牵头的财团。

在巴西、越南和南非等正考虑发展高铁项目的新兴市场，预计中国制造商将在基础设施建设和列车供应方面发起挑战。中国企业正在非洲承建许多铁路的建设或现代化改造，因此中国机车制造商可能成为供应柴油机车的当然之选。

乌尔里希表示，这些发展中市场可能觉得，欧洲和北美的尖端产品满足不了它们的需求。

但是中国的供应商面临不确定性。尽管中国国内拥有许多自己制造的高速列车，但目前所有的车型都是基于欧洲或日本的技术。而根据技术转让协议，中国出口的机车必须是新车型，不能建立在欧日的技术上。

曾有过非洲投资经验的美国铁路投资人亨利?波斯纳(Henry Posner)表示，据报道，中国出口至非洲国家的一些柴油机车还存在可靠性问题。

预计欧洲和北美供应商将在一段时期内保持技术领先优势。

欧洲铁路行业协会总干事迈克尔?克劳瑟克(Michael Clausecker)表示：“对于欧洲供应商和某些产品来说，我们早已发展了产品的可维护性和可靠性。中国仍然存在差距。”

通用电气运输部门主管洛伦佐?洛伦佐蒂(Lorenzo Lorenzotti)希望，所有的供应商都能有市场发展空间。通用电气与中国供应商成立了数家合资企业，但也在其它方面与它们竞争。

他表示：“我们专注于技术，确保能够提供客户表示需要的产品。”

不过，乌尔里希的报告预计，从现在起到2015-16年期间，亚洲铁路市场的年均增速将放缓至仅有2.5%。这可能会导致供应中国高速网络的工厂出现闲置产能。乌尔里希表示：“那些企业将在中国以外寻找机遇。”

译者/君悦