【英语中国】中国8月贸易顺差意外回落

China’s trade surplus narrowed last month, with imports growing much faster than expected though not enough to defuse political pressure on Beijing over the level of its currency.

According to figures released on Friday, the trade surplus was $20.03bn in August, down from $28.7bn a month earlier and short of analysts forecasts. Exports grew 34.4 per cent in August over the year before while imports increased 35.2 per cent.

While the trade surplus was below expectations, analysts said it was still relatively large and was unlikely to pacify critics in the US who are pushing for legislation that accuses China of manipulating its currency. The largest American industrial labour union on Thursday filed a complaint with the US trade representative to call for an investigation into Beijing’s support for its renewable energy industry.

“China’s trade surplus remained high, above $20bn for three consecutive months, which continues to add pressures on China’s exchange rate,” said Liu Ligang, economist at ANZ in Hong Kong.

China abandoned its currency peg against the US dollar in late June. Since then, however, it has allowed only very modest currency appreciation, prompting renewed criticism from Washington.

“Frankly they haven’t let the currency move very much so far,” said Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, on Bloomberg Television this week. “They know they’re just at the beginning of that process and I think we’d like to see them move more quickly.”

Mr Geithner is due to appear at a Congressional hearing next week on China’s exchange rate policy.

“China’s strong export growth and high trade surpluses weaken the argument that China cannot cope with currency appreciation,” said Brian Jackson, strategist at RBC in Hong Kong. The latest figures “should reinforce the case of those policymakers who argue that such a move would help address China’s domestic policy challenges while also reducing the potential for trade tensions.”

The year-on-year rate of increase in imports grew sharply from 22.7 per cent in July. While some analysts said this could be a temporary phenomenon linked to restocking of raw materials, others said it could be the result of firming domestic demand following gradual easing of policy in recent weeks.

中国上个月贸易顺差收窄，进口增速远超预期，但这并不足以缓和北京因人民币汇率而面临的政治压力。

周五公布的数据显示，中国8月的贸易顺差为200.3亿美元，较上月的287亿美元有所下降，低于分析师预期。8月出口较去年同期增长34.4%，而进口增长了35.2%。

虽然贸易顺差低于预期，但分析师表示，该差额依然相对较大，不太可能平息来自美国的批评。美方正在推动立法，指责中国实行了汇率操控。周四，美国最大的劳工组织向美国贸易代表提出申诉，要求后者调查中国政府为该国可再生能源业提供的补贴。

“中国贸易顺差依然保持在高位，已连续三个月超过200亿美元，这进一步提高了中国汇率政策面临的压力，”澳新银行(ANZ)驻香港的经济学家刘利刚(Liu Ligang)表示。

6月底，中国放弃了人民币盯住美元的政策。然而自那时起，中国仅允许人民币小幅升值，引发华盛顿新一轮批评之声。

“老实说，迄今为止他们从未让人民币大幅变动”，美国财政部部长蒂姆?盖特纳(Tim Geithner)本周在彭博(Bloomberg)的电视节目中说。“他们清楚自己处在一个进程的初期，而我认为我们更乐于见到他们行动更快些。”

下周，盖特纳将出席一场国会举行的有关中国汇率政策的听证会。

“中国强劲的出口增长，以及高额的贸易顺差，使中国无法应对货币升值的论调有所减弱。”加拿大皇家银行(RBC)驻香港的策略师布莱恩?杰克逊(Brian Jackson)表示。最新的数据“帮助一部分决策者的言论，即这种趋势将帮助解决中国国内的政策挑战，同时也可减少可能的贸易摩擦。”

较7月22.7%的进口同比增长率，8月进口猛然增速。一些分析师称，这有可能是重新储备原材料造成的短期现象，而其他分析师则称，也有可能是随着最近几周政策的逐渐放松，强劲内需推动的结果。

译者/麦可林