【英语中国】日本担忧中国增持日本国债

government bonds in the latest of a series of sour notes in a traditionally tense bilateral relationship that both sides had worked hard to steady.

China’s purchases of JGBs is an especially sensitive issue as it plays into anxieties in Japan about the strengthening yen and its impact on the economy.

Tokyo and Beijing also clashed this week after Japanese authorities arrested the captain of a Chinese fishing boat in the disputed waters of the East China Sea.

“There is something unnatural about the fact that China can buy Japanese government bonds while Japan cannot [buy Chinese bonds],” Yoshihiko Noda, the Japanese finance minister said.

“There is room for both governments to hold discussions with an eye towards improving that situation.”

In the first seven months of this year, Chinese net purchases of JGBs were about Y2,300bn ($27.4bn), according to the Japanese finance ministry.

While Mr Noda did not link Chinese purchases of Japanese bonds to the rise of the yen, he said Japan wanted an explanation for China’s purchase of a “huge amount of short-term” JGBs in May.

“I do not know what their true objectives are, but we would like to clarify their objectives,” Mr Noda said.

His comments come as the Japanese government faces mounting pressure to counter the yen’s rise, which is hurting the competitiveness of Japanese exporters and undermining their profits. The yen this week hit another 15-year high against the US dollar.

Although China’s net purchases of Japanese bonds are at a record, some analysts say they have a negligible effect on the currency market.

“It would be a real stretch to argue that it is Chinese bond buying that is appreciating the currency,” said Christian Carrillo, a strategist at Société Générale. He said the net flows from Japan’s balance of payments dwarf China’s net purchases totalling Y2,316bn.

In addition, the buying is tiny compared with Japan’s total government bond issuance of Y162,414bn planned for the fiscal year ending March 2011.

But other analysts disagreed. “I think Chinese buying [of JGBs] is putting upward pressure on the yen,” said Tohru Sasaki, foreign exchange strategist at JPMorgan.

Ichiro Ozawa, the Democratic party heavyweight challenging premier Naoto Kan for the leadership next week, has been vocal about the possible need to intervene in currency markets to stem the yen’s rise.

Tokyo’s criticism of China’s closed market – which restricts investments through capital controls – came after Larry Summers, chief economic adviser to US president Barack Obama, visited Beijing this week partly to try to convince Chinese authorities to allow the renminbi to appreciate further.

Mr Noda’s remarks also follow a period of renewed speculation about China’s management of its massive stock of foreign exchange reserves.

As well as increased purchases of Japanese bonds, traders say China has also been a buyer of South Korean, Canadian and Australian debt.

日本对中国近期大幅增持购买日本国债表示关切。在历来紧张、但两国政府都致力于稳定的日中关系中，这是最近一系列刺耳声音中的最新音符。

中国购买日本国债是一个格外敏感的问题，因为它加剧了日本对日元走强及其对经济冲击的焦虑。

本周，日中还因为日方在东海有争议海域逮捕中国一艘渔船的船长而发生争执。

“中国能够购买日本国债，而日本无法（购买中国债券），这种局面有点不正常，”日本财务大臣野田佳彦(Yoshihiko Noda)表示。

“两国政府举行商讨、以求改善这种局面的空间是存在的。”

根据日本财务省的数据，今年头七个月，中国净买入日本国债大约2.3万亿日元（合274亿美元）。

尽管野田佳彦没有将中国购买日本国债与日元走高联系起来，但他表示，日本希望就中国在5月份购买“巨额短期”日本国债得到一个解释。

“我不知道他们的真实目标是什么，但我们希望澄清他们的目标，”野田佳彦表示。

野田佳彦发表此番言论之际，日本政府正面临越来越大的压力，要求其采取行动遏制日元升值，日元升值正在损害日本出口商的竞争力，影响它们的利润。本周日元兑美元汇率升至又一个15年高点。

虽然中国对日本国债的净购买量达到创纪录水平，但一些分析师表示，这些购买对外汇市场的影响可以忽略不计。

“要说中国购买日本国债推高了日元汇率，那真的很牵强，”法国兴业银行(Société Générale)策略师克里斯蒂安?卡瑞罗(Christian Carrillo)表示。他说，日本国际收支的净流量，使中国对日本国债2.316万亿日元的净购买量相形见绌。

此外，与日本在截至2011年3月的财年计划发行的162.414万亿日元国债总额相比，中国的购买量微不足道。

但是，其他分析师不同意这种看法。“我认为中国购买（日本国债）正给日元带来升值压力，”摩根大通(JPMorgan)外汇策略师Tohru Sasaki表示。

下周将挑战日本首相菅直人(Naoto Kan)领导权的民主党重量级人物小泽一郎(Ichiro Ozawa)公开表示，可能需要干预汇市，以遏制日元升值。

日方批评中国市场封闭（即通过资本管制限制投资）之前，美国总统巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)的首席经济顾问拉里?萨默斯(Larry Summers)本周访问了北京，此行的部分目的就是试图说服中国政府让人民币进一步升值。

野田佳彦发表上述言论前，外界对中国管理庞大外汇储备的方式亦再度展开了猜测。

交易员们表示，除了增加购买日本国债外，中国还在购买韩国、加拿大和澳大利亚的债务。

译者/和风