【英语中国】中国减排动真格

China, the world’s largest energy consumer, will see fundamental shifts in its energy sources over the next decade that will reduce the country’s reliance on coal and oil.

Beijing is expected to announce measures in the five-year plan for 2011-15 that will boost the country’s supply of cleaner fuels, including nuclear power, hydroelectric power and natural gas.

The plan will probably include a firm target for reduction in carbon intensity, a measure of carbon consumption relative to gross domestic product (GDP). China announced last year that it would reduce carbon intensity 40-45 per cent by 2020.

China’s current five-year plan has a slightly different target: reducing energy consumption relative to GDP by 20 per cent from 2005 to 2010. For a long time it was unclear how seriously Beijing would take this pledge, or what impact the goal might have on energy consumption. But measures this year, including steel mill closures and a crackdown on energy-guzzling heavy industries, have reinforced the impression that China will go to great lengths to reach its energy-related targets.

These measures suggest that its carbon intensity target, when implemented, will also be enforced and could catalyse the shift in China’s energy fuel mix that is already under way.

Coal, which accounts for about 70 per cent of energy supply, could fall to 60 per cent within 10 years.

Natural gas and alternative fuels such as solar, wind, hydro and nuclear power, will step in to fill the gap, with natural gas consumption expected to double as a proportion of the country’s energy mix in the next five years alone.

China’s demand for coal will still rise in absolute terms, but the government will work to tighten the market by slowing new coal production, subsidising other fuels, and possibly raising taxes on coal mining in tandem with the tax rise that is being rolled out for oil and gas.

The carbon target will also force coal plants to become cleaner and could see stricter regulation of thermal emissions standards, which are patchily enforced at present.

Coal gasification technologies will become increasingly important as a way to burn coal more cleanly and eventually as a way to transport energy from far-flung coal regions such as Xinjiang.

Energy security will also drive China’s shift away from coal and oil. China became a net importer of coal last year, and could soon surpass Japan as the world’s top importer of thermal coal. China is also one of the world’s top crude importers, and imports are set to continue to grow as the country fills up its oil reserves.

“If China doesn’t make this shift toward natural gas and alternatives, it will have to import a lot more oil and coal,” says Laban Yu, an analyst at Macquarie. “So it needs to increase its use of natural gas and alternatives to provide a safety net for energy security.”

Government policies to promote the shift have gradually escalated. In June, the state-set price of natural gas was increased by 25 per cent, boosting incentives for gas producers.

Alternative energy sources such as wind and solar are subsidised at multiple stages of production, particularly by the availability of cheap land and capital. Wind-generated power is also subsidised, with preferential pricing from the grid.

“Non-fossil energy supply could reach 15 per cent by 2015, versus 7.8 per cent in 2009,” says David Hurd, head of oil and gas research in Asia for Deutsche Bank.

Hydropower is already playing an important role in that process, as power from huge projects like the Three Gorges dam starts to reach the energy-hungry south.

The shift will not be painless. The energy efficiency drive this year illustrates some of the challenges. For starters, government directives about energy policies are often ignored at the local level.

This year’s energy crackdown only got under way after months of high-level speeches and directives from Beijing were followed up with an inspection tour of Hebei province, which reported dozens of mill closures in September.

The enforcement of a carbon target will also depend on the government’s willingness to absorb the economic impact of a reduction in carbon intensity. The current energy efficiency goal was thrown off track by the Rmb4,000bn ($590.4bn) stimulus plan, which prompted huge investments in industries such as steel and cement.

Steel consumption relative to gross domestic product jumped in 2009 as a result in the boom in stimulus-fuelled construction. As a result, China became less energy-efficient in the first quarter of 2010.

The country is trying to reverse that effect by encouraging heavy industry plants to shut – at least until the end of the year, so that energy intensity targets can be met.

The economic impact of those closures could shave more than 2 per cent off China’s GDP, according to Morgan Stanley.

未来10年，全球最大能源消费国——中国的能源来源将发生根本性改变，减少中国对煤炭和石油的依赖。

预计在2011年至2015年的5年计划中，中国政府将宣布相应措施，增加更清洁能源的供应，包括核能、水电以及天然气。

该计划可能将包括降低碳强度的硬性目标。碳强度衡量的是单位国内生产总值(GDP)的碳排放。中国去年宣布，到2020年，将把碳强度减少40%至50%。

中国目前的5年计划目标略有不同：在2005年至2010年间，把单位GDP能耗降低20%。有很长一段时间，人们并不清楚中国政府对待这项承诺的认真程度，或者这项目标会对能耗产生何种影响。但今年的举措（包括关闭钢铁厂，打击高耗能的重工业）加深了人们的印象，即中国将竭尽全力实现能源相关目标。

这些措施表明，在实施碳强度目标时，这项目标也会得到坚决的执行，并会加速已在进行之中的中国能源燃料组合的变革。

煤炭在能源供应中所占比例可能会在10年内从大约70%降至60%。

天然气和替代能源（例如太阳能、风能、水能和核能）将弥补这一空缺，单单在未来5年，天然气消费占中国能源组合的比例预计就将上升一倍。

中国对煤炭的绝对需求仍将上升，但政府将努力收紧市场，其措施包括放慢新的煤炭生产，补贴其它能源，可能还会在即将推出的油气税上调后提高煤炭开采税。

碳强度目标还将迫使煤厂变得更为清洁，并可能对目前尚未全面实施的热排放标准进行更严格监管。

煤气化技术将变得越来越重要，这不仅是一种更清洁的燃煤方式，最终也是从新疆等偏远产煤区运送能源的一种方式。

能源安全还将推动中国从煤炭和石油转向其它能源。去年，中国已成为煤炭净进口国，而且可能很快会超过日本，成为全球最大的热煤进口国。中国也是全球最大的原油进口国之一，随着中国充实其石油储备，石油进口必将继续增长。

“如果中国不实现向天然气和替代能源的转变，就只能进口更多的石油和煤炭，”麦格理(Macquarie)分析师Laban Yu表示。“因此，中国需要加大对天然气和替代能源的利用，为能源安全提供保障。”

政府已在逐渐加大政策力度，促进这一转变。今年6月，政府制定的天然气价格上调了25%，加大了对天然气生产商的激励。

风能和太阳能等替代能源在多个生产阶段都获得了补贴，特别是可以获得廉价土地和资金。风力发电项目也得到了补贴，可享受用电优惠价格。

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)亚洲油气分析师大卫?赫德(David Hurd)表示：“到2015年，非化石能源供应的比例将从2009年的7.8%上升至15%。”

水力发电已在这一过程中发挥着重要作用，三峡大坝等大型项目的电力开始输送到亟需能源的南方地区。

这一转变不是没有代价的。今年的能效行动就说明了其中面临的一些挑战。首先，地方政府常常无视中央政府有关能源政策方面的指令。

在中央政府发表了为期数月的高层讲话和各项政府指令，继而又对河北省进行了视察之后，今年打击高耗能企业的行动才得以启动。据报道，河北省9月份有数十家工厂停产。

碳强度目标的执行还将取决于政府是否愿意吸收碳强度下降带来的经济影响。4万亿元人民币(合5904亿美元)的经济刺激计划，促进了对钢铁和水泥等行业的大规模投资，令目前的节能目标脱离了轨道。

去年，由于刺激计划引发的建筑热潮，钢铁消费占GDP的比例大幅上升。因此，今年第一季度，中国的节能表现不太好。

通过鼓励重工业工厂停产（至少到今年年底前），中国正在努力逆转影响，以便实现能源强度目标。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)称，工厂停产的经济影响可能会令中国的GDP下滑2%以上。

译者/梁艳裳