【英语中国】中国迎来环保企业上市潮 定价是关键

Propelled in part by the backing of powerful Beijing bureaucrats, green-themed Chinese companies are poised to reap billions of dollars from public offerings to new investors in coming months.

But investors may want to ask at what price are they willing to jump on the trend.

Among a spate of clean-energy initial public offerings heading to market over the next few months is Chinese wind-turbine maker Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co., which scrapped a US$1.2 billion Hong Kong IPO in June. It is reviving its plans with a US$1 billion Hong Kong offering in the next few weeks. Mingyang Electric is planning to raise between US$300 million and US$500 million from a U.S. IPO later this year. China Suntien, the renewable-energy division of Hebei provincial government's investment arm, is seeking about US$500 million in Hong Kong.

Add to that Huaneng New Energy Industrial Co., China Huaneng Group's wind-power unit, which is looking to tap markets for a US$1.5 billion IPO in October, and Chinese clean-technology IPOs this year alone could reach record levels.

Wind-power generator China Longyuan Power Group Corp. already raised $2.2 billion in an IPO in Hong Kong in December last year, in one of the biggest clean-energy deals in Asia. Many are hoping to follow the success of China battery and car maker BYD Co., which won backing from U.S. billionaire Warren Buffett and has seen its shares surge in recent years.

The predominance of IPOs by Chinese companies is a testament to Beijing's push to support environmentally friendly energy sources. China wants to increase use of renewable-energy sources to 15% of its total by 2020, from 9% in 2008. Many such firms are subject to a preferential tax rate of 15%, compared with a 25% tax on other corporations, as well as other benefits, including government power-purchase agreements that guarantee demand.

'The sector has strong growth potential given that the Chinese government policy is clearly supportive,' said Derek Sulger, a partner at Shanghai-based private-equity firm Lunar Capital. 'We have also observed that many public market investors have looked toward alternative energy as a way to gain exposure to China's demand for cleaner, more diversified energy sources.'

But for the new alternative-energy deals coming to the market, valuations are key. Hong Kong-listed China Longyuan is trading at a multiple of 30 times net profit for the current year, above the MSCI China Index at 22.5 times and the MSCI Global Index at 17.5 times.

'With pre-IPO investment opportunities also unreasonably priced, we like so-called expansion-stage companies that are one to two years away from IPOs,' said Chris Rynning, chief executive of Origo Partners, a London-listed private-equity firm based in Beijing, noting that many publicly listed earlier-stage clean-technology firms are trading between 10 and 20 times their sales.

'Expansion-stage companies typically have commercially scaled their technologies but need capital to grow and often are at a tipping point in terms of sales and profit,' Mr. Rynning said.

There is no denying the promise of renewable energy. The cost per unit of electricity generated by solar panels is falling 20% a year, meaning it could reach levels charged by coal-fired electric firms in about five years, said Tim Buckley, portfolio manager at Sydney-based clean-energy fund house Arkx Investment Management.

Geoff Evison, Arkx's joint managing director, said 'There's been a lot of hype around renewable-energy IPOs, so we'd be interested only if the valuations warrant it, and the earnings aren't made up of some coal, for instance.' Arkx counts in its portfolio of 22 renewable-energy stocks China's BYD and China Wind Power, among others.

'But with the needs for energy security and energy demand from countries like China, the move to renewables is unstoppable, and you're increasingly seeing renewable-energy companies that are good value,' Mr. Evison said.

The government tailwind could be key, investment pros said. For example, those who bought renewable-energy stocks from coal-rich Australia, where the government doesn't back renewables in the same way as China, will find their investments there have fallen 31% over the past 12 months. At the moment, China still faces pressure to push alternatives to fossil fuels, both to meet its own energy needs and to stay competitive in a hot global market. That means a strong and supportive policy and regulatory environment.

But that doesn't guarantee success, or necessarily justify high valuations.

Investors would do well to remember that no ride lasts forever.

分借助强有力的北京官方的推动，未来几个月里，以绿色环保为主题的中国企业已做好了从首次公开募股(IPO)中斩获数十亿美元的准备。

不过投资者可能要问，什么样的价格才会让他们欣然加入这股IPO大潮？

未来几个月里，将有大量洁净能源公司的IPO上市发行，其中就包括制造风涡轮机的新疆金风科技股份有限公司。该公司取消了原定6月在香港IPO融资12亿美元的计划，改为未来几周内香港IPO融资10亿美元。广东明阳电器集团有限公司计划今年晚些时候在美国招股，集资3亿至5亿美元。新天绿色能源股份有限公司亦计划通过香港IPO融资5亿美元，这是河北省政府下属国有投资企业的一个可再生能源子公司。

此外，华能集团旗下从事风电业务的子公司华能新能源产业控股有限公司计划10月通过IPO发行筹集15亿美元。这样说来，今年中国仅是清洁能源方面的IPO规模就有望突破历史最高纪录。

风力发电商的龙源电力集团股份有限公司通过去年12月香港IPO发售共筹得22亿美元，成为亚洲规模最大的清洁能源交易之一。很多公司希望效仿电池和汽车制造商比亚迪股份有限公司的成功之路，该公司赢得了美国亿万富翁巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的支持，其股票价格近年一路飙升。

中国企业IPO的主导地位说明了北京对环保能源业的大力支持。中国希望到2020年全国可再生能源的使用比例从2008年的9%提高至15%。很多清洁能源公司执行的是15%的优惠税率，而从事其它行业的公司的税率则是25%，此外，清洁能源企业还享受其它补贴政策，包括保证需求的政府购电协议等。

上海私募股权公司云月资本管理公司(Lunar Capital)合伙人苏丹瑞(Derek Sulger)说，鉴于中国政府的政策十分支持清洁能源的发展，这个行业的增长潜力非常巨大。他表示，我们注意到，很多股市投资者都着眼于可替代能源，以此获得针对中国对更清洁、更多元化的能源需求的投资敞口。

但对于新上市的替代能源交易来说，估值是个中关键。在香港上市的中国龙源电力集团以当前财年净利润计算的市盈率为30倍，高于MSCI中国指数(MSCI China Index)的22.5倍和MSCI全球指数(MSCI Global Index)的17.5倍。

在伦敦上市的北京私募股权投资公司Origo Partners首席执行长林宁(Chris Rynning)说，由于IPO前夕的投资机会定价过高，我们青睐处于所谓扩张阶段、还要一两年才会进行IPO的公司。他指出，许多处在更早发展阶段的上市清洁技术公司市销率都在10倍至20倍。

林宁说，处于扩张阶段的公司通常都已经将其技术商业化，但需要资金发展壮大，而且在销售和利润方面通常还处于引爆点。

可再生能源的前景无可否认。悉尼清洁能源基金公司Arkx Investment Management的投资组合经理巴克利(Tim Buckley)说，太阳能电池板发电的单位成本正以每年20%的速度下降，这意味着大约五年时间就能达到煤电公司的收费水平。

Arkx的联席董事总经理埃维森(Geoff Evison)说，可再生能源IPO已经被说得天花乱坠，因此只在估值合理、并且公司利润不是来自于煤炭之类的东西时，我们才会感兴趣。Arkx公司投资了22只可再生能源股票，其中包括中国的比亚迪(BYD)和中国风电(China Wind Power)。

但埃维森说，考虑到中国等国家对能源安全的需要和它们的能源需求，投资可再生能源的趋势是不可阻挡的，而估值合理、值得买入的公司也正越来越多。

投资专家说，政府的支持有可能成为其中的关键。例如在煤炭资源丰富的澳大利亚，政府并不像中国那样支持可再生能源，所以购买该国可再生能源股的投资者，会发现他们的投资在过去12个月已经缩水31%。中国不管是为了满足自身能源需求，还是为了在白热化的全球市场保持竞争力，当前都仍旧背负着发展化石燃料替代品的压力。这就带来了一种坚实而有利的政策与监管环境。

但这不是成功的保证，高估值也不一定因此就合理。

记住天下没有不散的筵席，投资者会获益良多。