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2010-9-10 02:15
Sungho Im, head of global investment at Mirae Asset Global Investments, tells The Wall Street Journal why Asian consumerism will present long-term investment opportunities.
WSJ: Why is Asia causing such a stir? Mr. Im: The [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development] forecasts that more than half the world's middle class could be in Asia by 2020, and Asian consumers could account for over 40% of global middle-class consumption. The world is looking to Asia to pick up the slack left by Europe and U.S. consumers, who are experiencing a period of austerity following the financial crisis. WSJ: How can investors capitalize? Mr. Im: Investors have often only considered the consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors. However, we believe that this major socioeconomic trend will bring enormous change to the regional economy as a whole and investors should consider consumer-related sectors also. WSJ: Which sectors in particular? Mr. Im: The Internet industry in China, which now has the most users in the world, is growing rapidly as more Chinese consumers are able to afford PCs or laptops. The online gaming and advertisement industries are growing quickly. In India, the infrastructure industry should benefit from consumers' purchasing power growth. With the power deficit in India growing as more Indians are able to purchase electric appliances, increased government infrastructure spending should benefit relevant industries. WSJ: Are there any risks? Mr. Im: Investors need to bear in mind the important variations that exist between countries in Asia. Indonesia currently enjoys low inflation, strong economic growth, a strong fiscal position and increased confidence about the nation's politics. However, as liquidity has flowed into the market, we find more attractive valuations in Singapore-listed stocks with exposure to Indonesia. In China, wage pressures will lead to higher disposable incomes and hence consumption. WSJ: What funds would you recommend? Mr. Im: There are a number of funds available, giving exposure to the Asian consumer theme. We believe that investors should look for a manager who treats the rise of the consumer as an indispensable analytical framework for studying the future direction of the regional and global economy. 来资产环球投资(Mirae Asset Global Investments)全球投资主管Sungho Im对《华尔街日报》道出了亚洲消费将提供长期投资机会的原因。
《华尔街日报》:为什么是亚洲引起这股热潮? Sungho Im:经济合作与发展组织(OECD)预测,到2020年前,全球超过一半的中产阶级将出现在亚洲,亚洲消费者在全球中产阶级消费中将占逾40%。世界预计亚洲接替欧美消费者的位置,在金融危机后,欧美消费者正经历着一段时间的节俭期。 《华尔街日报》:投资者如何获利? Sungho Im:投资者通常只考虑日常用品和非必需消费品类股。但我们认为这一重大社会经济趋势将给地区经济带来巨大变化,投资者也应该考虑消费相关类股。 《华尔街日报》:尤其是哪类股? Sungho Im:中国的互联网类股,目前中国互联网业拥有全世界最多的用户,由于更多中国消费者买得起台式电脑或笔记本电脑,因此中国互联网业正在快速发展,在线游戏和广告业迅速增长。在印度,基建业应从消费者采购力增长中获益。由于越来越多的印度人有能力购买家用电器,印度电力功率不足加剧,政府对基建业增加支出,应将有利于相关产业。 《华尔街日报》:有什么风险吗? Sungho Im:投资者需要谨记在心的是,亚洲各国存在严重差异。印尼目前通胀较低,经济增长迅猛,财政状况良好,而且人们对该国政治越来越有信心。随着流动性涌入市场,我们发现在新加坡上市、业务涉及印尼的股票估值更有吸引力。在中国,工资压力将提高可支配收入,因而将促进消费。 《华尔街日报》:你推荐什么基金? Sungho Im:有许多基金涉及亚洲消费业。我们认为,有基金经理把消费者崛起当作研究地区经济和全球经济未来发展方向不可或缺的分析框架,投资者应该寻找这样的基金经理。 |