【英语中国】中国经济不会硬着陆？

China’s manufacturing sector made a modest recovery last month, boosting confidence that the economy will avoid a hard landing this year as Beijing strives to cool the property market and restrain bank lending.

Equity markets in Asia and some commodity prices rose yesterday after two separate business surveys showed signs that manufacturing was stabilising after several months of slowdown, although shares fell on the Chinese mainland.

The government’s purchasing managers’ index rose from 51.2 in July to 51.7 last month, while a separate index compiled by HSBC bank rose from 49.4 to 51.9.

Although China’s purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) tend to perform more strongly in an average August than in July, the figures provided investors with reassurance that, at the very least, the slowdown in the economy was not gathering pace, as many had feared a few weeks ago.

“The worst-case scenario of a hard landing in the fourth quarter can be ruled out,” said Shen Jianguang, an economist at Mizuho Securities in Hong Kong.

Uncertainty has surrounded the outlook for the Chinese economy since the government launched a tough campaign in April to reduce speculation in the property market and engineer a drop in house prices. The authorities have also taken steps to rein in bank lending.

Government officials in-sisted yesterday that the new figures showed the economy would not suffer a hard landing.

“The modest rise in the August PMI shows there will not be a deep correction in the Chinese economy,” said Zhang Liqun, a government researcher.

The main risks to the economy over the coming months are a continued increase in inflation, which could prompt higher interest rates and put a lot of pressure on the huge volumes of bank loans issued last year, and a slump in exports as demand in the US and Europe weakens. However, the government’s PMI sub-index for new export orders also increased in the August survey.

Signs have also emerged of a recovery in trans-actions in the property market, which was moribund for some time after the government started its damping campaign in April.

According to the Australian bank Macquarie, sales of properties in 20 Chinese cities were up 30 per cent in August over the month before and have rebounded 46 per cent from their trough, although they are still 30 per cent below levels seen in April.

Although the renewed activity has encouraged speculation that some local authorities are already relaxing policies, property developers believe that the central government will want to see much stronger evidence of lower prices before it eases restrictions on the sector, and predict that some companies could face cash problems in the coming months.

Economists cite anecdotal evidence, meanwhile, that investment in infrastructure projects, especially in western China, is beginning to pick up again, which would also temper the slowdown in the second half of the year.

New projects that have begun recently include a reservoir in Sichuan province, a large investment in energy transmission in Xinjiang region and new railway lines in Inner Mongolia to transport coal.

Details of the Chinese PMIs also gave some new grounds for optimism. Not only did the sub-index for new orders rise to 53.1 from 50.9, but levels of inventories of finished goods dropped three points to 46.9. “The combination of higher orders and lower stocks is constructive for the outlook,” said Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland.

中国制造业上个月出现温和复苏，提振了今年国民经济将避免硬着陆的信心，尽管中国政府正努力给房地产市场降温并控制银行放贷。

两份独立的商业调查显示，有迹象表明制造业在经历了数月的放缓之后开始企稳，昨日亚洲股市及部分大宗商品价格随之上涨，尽管中国内地股市下跌。

中国官方发布的采购经理人指数(PMI index)从7月份的51.2升至8月份的51.7；另一个由汇丰银行(HSBC Bank)编撰的指数则从49.4上升至51.9。

尽管中国的采购经理人指数通常8月份的表现都要比7月更加强劲，但上述数字让投资者确信，至少经济没有像几周前许多人担心的那样进一步放缓。

“第四季度出现经济硬着陆的最糟糕情况可以被排除了，”瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)驻香港经济学家沈建光(Shen Jianguang)表示。

自从今年4月份中国政府展开有力行动，以减少房地产市场投机活动、并促使房价下降以来，围绕中国经济前景出现了许多不确定性。政府相关部门还采取举措限制银行放贷。

昨日政府官员强调称，最新数据显示中国经济不会出现硬着陆。

“8月采购经理人指数的小幅反弹，表明中国经济不会出现深度调整，”政府研究人员张立群(Zhang Liqun)表示。

未来几个月，中国经济的主要风险是通胀率的继续攀升，以及随着欧美需求放缓出现的出口下降。通胀率攀升可能会迫使官方加息，并给去年发放的巨额银行贷款施加巨大压力。然而，官方PMI中的新出口订单分类指数8月亦有所上升。

此外有迹象表明房地产市场交易出现复苏，自4月份政府启动打压行动以来，一段时间内，房地产交易一直萎靡不振。

澳大利亚麦格理银行(Macquarie)的数据显示，8月份，中国20个主要城市房地产销售额环比增加30%，与最低谷时相比反弹了46%，但仍比4月份的数据要低30%。

尽管交易活动恢复促使人们猜测，部分地方政府已经开始放松政策，但房地产开发商认为中央政府希望看到房价下降的更有力证据，然后才会放宽对房地产行业的限制，他们还预测称，部分房地产企业在未来几个月可能会面临现金问题。

与此同时，经济学家引用坊间证据称，基础设施项目投资（尤其是中国西部）开始再度提速，这同样会限制下半年的经济放缓势头。

新近动工的基建项目包括四川省一座水库、对新疆能源输送项目的大规模投资、以及内蒙古运输煤炭的新铁路线。

中国采购经理人指数的详细内容也为乐观情绪提供了新的依据。不仅新出口订单分类指数从50.9上升至53.1，产成品库存分类指数也下降3点，至46.9。“订单增长而库存降低，这一组合意味着前景向好，”苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)的经济学家贝哲民(Ben Simpfendorfer)表示。

译者/管婧