【英语中国】Lex专栏：中国国航“起飞”了吗？

Airlines are airborne once more. Recapitalised by rich parents and governments, or hammered together in mergers, carriers are surveying a competitive landscape stripped of most marginal operators. Half of the world’s top 30 airlines by market capitalisation are poised to make at least a double-digit return on equity this year.

Yet this is an industry that has consistently vaporised more shareholders’ funds than almost any other. Even in China, where total air traffic grew by almost a third in the year to June, airlines can take nothing for granted. Take Air China, the flag carrier. Highlights from this week’s interim figures seem great: passengers carried up more than a third to 26m, 13 new domestic routes opened, and a merger with Shenzhen Airlines gives Air China a third hub to add to Beijing and Chengdu.

Yet this is not as good as it was supposed to be. Three years ago, Li Jiaxiang, the former chairman, outlined a vision of turning Air China into an “international supercarrier”. But despite having all the might of the state behind it (Mr Li now heads the industry regulator, the CAAC), the airline has struggled for traction. While domestic passengers have almost exactly doubled since its interims in 2007, international passengers have shrunk from 3.5m to 3.1m. Back then, international revenues were 41 per cent of the whole; they’re now 35 per cent, driven mostly by cargo. Expansion plans were put on hold by a bitter domestic price war. Air China’s revenue per passenger has fallen from Rmb1,306 ($192) in 2007 to Rmb1,089 now.

Yes, the group is more profitable: this year’s earnings per share should be more than double the 2007 figure. Air China’s $18bn market cap is the world’s biggest, equal to Europe’s top three combined. But regional, let alone global, dominance is a long way away.

航空公司正再次起飞。在获得资金充沛的母公司和政府的重新注资、或者通过并购实现重组之后，航空公司正在俯瞰一个新的竞争环境——大多数小型航空公司已被逐出市场。在全球市值最高的30家航空公司中，有一半今年将取得至少两位数的股本回报率。

然而，航空业一向是令股东资金蒸发最多的行业。即便在中国——在截至6月的一年中，中国航空运量增长近三分之一——航空公司也无法心存侥幸。以中国旗舰航空公司国航(Air China)为例。本周该公司的中期业绩似乎相当抢眼：客运量增长逾三分之一，至2600万，新开13条国内航线，与深圳航空合并令国航获得除北京和成都之外的第三个航空枢纽。

然而，现实并非像人们期待的那样好。3年前，国航前任董事长李家祥提出将国航变成一个“国际超级航空公司”的理想。然而，尽管有政府撑腰（李家祥现任行业监管机构民航总局(CAAC)局长），但该公司一直难以壮大。尽管自从2007年发布中期业绩以来，国航的国内客运量几乎增加了一倍，但国际客运量却从350万降至310万。2007年时，国际业务收入占总收入的41%；如今却下滑至35%，而且主要是由货运贡献的。由于国内激烈的价格战，国航的扩张计划陷于停滞。如今，国航来自每位乘客的平均收入已从2007年的1306元人民币(合192美元)降至1089元。

确实，国航提高了盈利性：今年该公司的每股盈利应比2007年高出一倍。国航市值高达180亿美元，为全球最高，相当于欧洲三大航空公司的总和。然而，要称霸这一地区都还有很长的路要走，更别称霸全球了。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

译者/梁艳裳