【英语中国】格老索罗斯看多中国为哪般？

A bull in China's shop is still charging. And he has some famous friends.

Over the last several years, China-oriented letters have turned in some of the strongest sustained performances ever recorded by the Hulbert Financial Digest, despite the recent stumble. ( See May 20 column.)

I just checked in with China Stock Digest. Its China portfolio is still some 83.5% invested and it says flatly that 'China has resumed its economic boom in full. It is as if the global economic crisis had never happened.'

'Chinese stock markets don't reflect the facts yet, but China clearly has a much healthier economy than the United States.'

I must say I flat-out don't believe this. Plus, I suspect no one really knows what's going on in China. ( See Feb. 11, 2007, column.)

Still, that doesn't mean that they can't make money.

China Stock Digest was also optimistic at the beginning of this year, ( See Jan. 4 column.) But over the year to date, it's down 17.8% by Hulbert Financial Digest count versus 0.7% for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index.

Nyaah, nyaah. But to be fair, that could be a silly measure.

China Stock Digest makes an elaborate case for its bullishness. But editor Jim Trippon also instances a recent interview with former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan by CNBC's Maria Bartiromo.

He writes: 'Greenspan blamed the banks for failing to provide liquidity to the ailing U.S. economy. 'Three trillion dollars are held in cash by the banks, but they're not lending,' Greenspan lamented. He called the banks a major barrier to recovery.'

'But that wasn't what surprised me. It was what he said next. 'China,' he said, 'is the most dynamic capitalist economy in the world.' '

Emphasis in original -- but emphatically endorsed.


Trippon went on: 'I would add that China's ability to pull the levers of a command economy enabled the nation to pull out of an economic nosedive while other countries were caught up in political bickering. China ordered its banks to lend abundantly, and they put more than a trillion dollars worth of liquidity into the economy.'

'U.S. banks, although they received hundreds of billions in taxpayer bailouts, have failed to perform in the interests of an American recovery.'

Whether this is true or not, it seems to me that it conclusively proves China is not a 'capitalist economy' -- that it is indeed a 'command economy.' There's a difference. In the long run, this means trouble.

Trippon continued: 'Another great capitalist, George Soros, is also getting on the bandwagon. Soros says he wants to invest in clean energy in China rather than other countries because Beijing has made fighting pollution an important part of public policy.'

'It's good to have Soros and Greenspan on board at last!'

My response to this: a resounding hmmmmm. (Full disclosure: Several hundred years ago, Soros and I discussed my helping him with a book.)

I'm not sure Soros is a 'capitalist' -- I think he's a speculator.

Nothing wrong with that. But it's not the same thing.

Plus, I also don't believe China or any other 'command economy' cares about fighting pollution.

Currently recommended in China Stock Digest's China Portfolio:

Acorn International Inc. (ATV 3.67, -0.11, -2.86%)

Changyou.com Ltd. (CYOU 26.66, +0.37, +1.41%)

China Medical Technologies Inc. (CMED 10.42, +0.03, +0.33%)

Himax Technologies Inc. (HIMX 2.41, -0.01, -0.41%)

Huaneng Power International Inc.(HNP 23.30, -0.14, -0.59%)

iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (EWH 16.04, -0.01, -0.06%)

Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (SCR 9.00, +0.07, +0.78%)

位看多中国的人振振有词地开腔了，而且他还有一些有名的朋友。

过去几年里，《赫伯特金融小艾摘要》（Hulbert Financial Digest）记录了有史以来中国企业保持的最强劲的表现，尽管近期有所走软。

我刚刚查阅了《中国股票文摘》（China Stock Digest），其中国投资组合仍有约83.5%的投资，它直截了当地说，中国全面恢复经济繁荣，就像全球经济危机从未发生过一样。中国股市虽未反应现实，但中国经济比美国经济要健康地多。

我必须说，我根本不相信这些。另外我怀疑没人真正知道中国的情况。

但这并不意味着他们不能赚钱。

《中国股票文摘》今年初时也很乐观，但年初至今，按《赫伯特金融小艾摘要》计算其投资组合下跌17.8%，而把股息再投资的道琼斯威尔夏5000指数（Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index）仅下跌0.7%。

但公平地说，这是个愚蠢的衡量指标。

《中国股票文摘》还对它的看多观点举了个详细的例子。其编辑特里庞（Jim Trippon）以近期CNBC记者巴蒂罗姆（Maria Bartiromo）对美联储（Fed）前主席格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）的采访为例。

他写道，格林斯潘指责银行未能向境况不佳的美国经济提供流动性，令格林斯潘深感遗憾的是，3万亿美元以现金的形式存在银行里，但银行没有放贷出去。格林斯潘认为银行是经济复苏的主要障碍。

特里庞说，但这没有让我吃惊，他下面的话才让我吃惊，“中国是世界上最有活力的资本主义经济体”。

虽然他只是强调了格林斯潘的原话，但明显是持同意的态度。


特里庞继续说道：我还要说，中国有能力撬动指令性经济的杠杆，这使中国经济能够摆脱直线下跌，而其他国家却被政治争吵束缚住了手脚；中国命令它的银行大量放贷，这些银行将价值一万亿美元以上的流动性注入了中国经济。

他接着说，美国的银行虽然接受了纳税人数千亿美元救助资金，但却没有从美国经济复苏的利益出发履行其职责。

不管是真是假，对我来说中国显然不是一个“资本主义经济体”，它确实是“指令型经济”。这二者之间是有差别的。从长远来说，这意味着麻烦。

特里庞继续说，另一个伟大的资本主义者──乔治•索罗斯(George Soros)也在追逐潮流。索罗斯说他想投资中国的清洁能源业，而不是其他国家，因为中国政府已经将与污染作斗争当作了一项重要的公共政策。

特里庞说，与索罗斯和格林斯潘坐在同一条船上总是件好事。

我对此的回答是：一派胡言。(我招供：几百年前索罗斯和我曾讨论过我帮他写本书的事。)

我不能确定索罗斯是“资本主义者”──我认为他是一名投机者。

他是投机者也没什么大不了的。但这二者不是一回事。

还有，我也不相信中国或任何其他“指令型经济”会关心与污染作斗争。

《中国股票文摘》目前建议持仓的中国股票有：

橡果国际(Acorn International Inc., ATV 报3.67美元，下跌0.11美元，跌幅2.86%)

北京畅游时代数码技术有限公司(Changyou.com Ltd., CYOU 报26.66美元，涨0.37美元，涨幅1.41%)

中国医疗技术公司(China Medical Technologies Inc., CMED 报10.42美元，涨0.03美元，涨幅0.33%)

奇景光电(Himax Technologies Inc., HIMX 报2.41美元，下跌0.01美元，跌幅0.41%)

华能国际电力股份(Huaneng Power International Inc., HNP 报23.30美元，下跌0.14美元，跌幅0.59%)

iShares摩根士丹利资本国际香港指数基金(iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund, EWH 报16.04港元，下跌0.01港元，跌幅0.06%)

先声药业集团(Simcere Pharmaceutical Group, SCR 报9.00美元，涨0.07美元，涨幅0.78%)