【英语中国】化解中国大堵车路在何方

What is the deal with that huge traffic jam in China? The epic snarl has attracted and confounded so many, Driver's Seat decided to consult an expert to sort out what it all means.

In his bestselling 2008 book 'Traffic: Why We Drive the Way We Do (and What It Says About Us),' Tom Vanderbilt examined road development and trends and patterns in traffic flow, among other things.

The book revealed a lot about how our driving routines and habits contribute to traffic troubles and how broader cultural trends determine a lot about how we use our vehicles and roads.

Driver's Seat asked the author a few questions about how the monumental traffic jam near Beijing reflects broader traffic trends and what it could mean for the future of driving in the U.S.

Driver's Seat: Do you see patterns in the Chinese traffic jam that are familiar? Could the same thing happen in the U.S.?

Tom Vanderbilt: From what I can tell, this was something of a 'perfect storm,' traffic-wise - you have a road under construction in a remote area that is experiencing a frenetic burst of economic activity. There are other cases that have been extreme -the last weekend in France in August, for example, when everyone's returning from holiday, or the episode in Pennsylvania earlier this year when extreme icing stranded a huge number of drivers for a dozen hours.

But we should also remember the 'non-linear nature' of traffic: One stalled vehicle on a two-lane road can cut the entire capacity in half, because of the bottleneck. It doesn't take much to start a jam, and it takes longer for drivers to emerge from it than it takes them to get into it.

But I saw a comment from a truck driver that was telling: 'Everybody has to use this road as the other is too expensive, it should be free.' That's the root of the problem here. When a scarce good is under-priced, we trade the savings in money for costs in time - more people will queue for it. The other road may be overpriced, but I can guarantee that no traffic problem has ever been solved by making a crowded road free.

Does the traffic congestion in China today reflect more of the past or future of traffic in the U.S.?

I think we've moved past what's happening in China. One, where China is on a massive upward rise in motorization, we've seen in the U.S. declines in vehicle ownership and annual vehicle miles traveled. Some of this reflects the economic turndown, but some researchers argue we've basically reached saturation - the last census found more cars than people. We've also gotten smarter, through much painful experience, about managing 'non-recurring' congestion, like during construction - working at night, closing roads entirely to get the job done faster, extensive warning campaigns. I'm not sure any of those things were present on the road to Inner Mongolia.

Is it a case of the road system needing to catch up with the volume of cars, or is that an oversimplification?

It's always tough to say what the 'natural' demand for traffic on a road is because the road influences the traffic. And in many cases, China's road network wasn't intended for the level of motorization currently going on.

In the U.S., building more roads when they're already under-funded doesn't seem workable, and given that most roads are only congested part of the time, it's not really the most efficient solution anyway. A former Disney engineer told me, when I asked why they didn't just build more rides at their theme parks instead of worrying about new ways to manage the long queues, 'you don't build a church for Easter Sunday.'

But being able to clear a stalled car quickly because sensors detect the traffic flow has changed, knowing which routes are crowded in that moment, and possibly charging accordingly - there's countless innovative solutions out there that are more sophisticated, and more sustainable, than simply laying more asphalt.

And we shouldn't forget simpler solutions - if one out of every five or six drivers simpler shared their car with someone else, or got on public transportation - you'd wipe out congestion (though absent incentives to manage demand, it would just fill back up). As I mentioned before, traffic is non-linear - you don't need to cut the number of drivers 50% to reduce congestion by 50%. Small reductions can have large effects.

How much worse might the overall traffic situation get in China?

Considering how low the ownership rate is - just 63 million a year ago - I'd say congestion is going to be a growth market in China for some time.

What steps can we in the U.S take to solve ours?

I've seen all kinds of novel attempts to combat congestion worldwide; I've just returned from Bogota, Colombia, where a major two-way street becomes one-way on the stroke of five to accommodate the outflow of the evening rush, and cars with certain numbered license plates are not allowed in the city on certain days.

The future, I think, lies in what's called 'ITS,' for intelligent transportation systems - everything from sensors that detect slowing traffic and set new speed limits to avoid severe traffic 'shockwaves,' to real-time pricing based on the current occupancy of the road. We can't reasonably build our way of traffic, but we can think - and pay - our way out.

国京藏高速的交通拥堵到底是怎么回事？这次蔚为壮观的堵车吸引了太多人的注意，同时也使人们感到困惑。《华尔街日报》Driver’s Seat栏目决定就此事咨询有关专家，以探讨这个问题的深义。

范德比尔特(Tom Vanderbilt)在他2008年畅销书《开车经济学：我们为什么这样开车》中，主要考查了美国的道路发展以及交通流量的变化趋势以及模式。

该书讲述了很多有关开车路线和开车习惯如何造成交通问题等内容，还讲了更广泛的文化趋向是我们车辆与道路使用方式的主要决定因素。

Driver’s Seat向该书作者提出了几个问题，主要是有关京藏高速大堵车如何体现交通发展大趋势以及这次堵车对于未来在美国开车意味什么。

Driver’s Seat：你见过与中国堵车规模类似的大堵车吗？美国是否会出现这种堵车？

范德比尔特：在我看来，这次大堵车是一场“完美的风暴”，说明交通运输业发达，在建公路所处的偏远地区经济活动十分活跃。还有其它一些极端例子，比如上周末，众多法国人在度假结束的返家途中遭遇大堵车，还有今年早些时候，美国宾夕法尼亚州由于路面上冻极其严重，出现12小时的大面积堵车。

不过我们也要知道交通的“非线状特性”，即一条两车道的路上如有一台车子熄火，就可能因瓶颈问题使该路的整体通行能力减半。形成拥堵并不是一件麻烦事，摆脱拥堵的时间比陷入拥堵所需的时间长得多。

不过我看见有一条卡车司机的评论是这样说的：大家都只能跑京藏高速，因为其它高速收费太贵，应该免费才对。这才是问题的症结所在。一件稀有商品如果定价过低，我们就会为了省钱而不惜花时间，会有更多人排队购买。另一条高速可能收费过高，但我敢肯定，对车流量大的道路实行免费不能解决任何交通问题。

当今中国的交通堵塞是否折射出美国过去或将来更多的堵车现象？

我认为美国已度过了中国现在所处的阶段。中国现在机动车保有量大规模增加，而美国机动车的拥有数量以及年行驶里程都在下降。其中，部分原因可能是美国经济衰退造成的，但是一些研究者认为这是由于美国车辆基本达到饱和──上一次美国人口普查发现机动车数量大于人口数量。从很多惨痛教训当中，美国人在管理“非反复”拥堵方面也学聪明了，例如道路建设期间，只在晚上作业、路段全部封闭以期加快建设速度及大规模宣传提醒司机绕道等。不知内蒙古方向的这条道路有没有任何采取上述措施。

这是不是一个路网建设需跟上机动车数量增长的问题，还是说这样的归纳过于简单？

要说清楚路网对交通流量的“天然”需求总是很难，因为道路影响流量。很多情况下，中国的路网规模在设计之初并未考虑到现在庞大的车流量水平。

美国在资金不足的情况下修建更多道路的方法似乎并不可行，绝大多数道路仅在部分时段出现拥堵，但不管怎么说，这不是一个真正有效的解决方案。一位曾在迪士尼(Disney)工作过的工程师告诉我，当他问到迪士尼为什么不在主题公园里多建一些机动游乐项目而总是想办法管理排队问题时，得到的回答是“没人会专门为过复活节建教堂”。

可以尝试使用一些新方式，如探头发现路上车流量增大后能迅速清除抛锚车辆、知道当下哪条路段较为拥挤并采取相应的收费政策等，除此之外，还有数不清的更先进、更具有持续性、有创意的解决方案，而不仅仅是铺设新的柏油马路这一种方法。

同时我们也不应忘记一些简单易行的方法──五、六个开车人当中如果能有一个与他人拼车或乘坐公交出行，就能解决堵车问题(虽然缺乏激励措施，但多少能起到一定作用)。我前面提到说，交通是非线性的，不是说要减少一半的堵车就得让开车人的数量减少一半。小幅控制有时可以产生很好的效果。

中国总体交通状况恶化的程度能有多糟？

想想看机动车拥有量在一年前只有6300万辆，因此我认为拥堵状态在一段时间内还会加剧的。

美国能采取什么措施解决我们自己的堵车问题？

我看到世界各地都在尝试各种新办法，希望能解决堵车问题。我刚从哥伦比亚首都波哥大(Bogota)回来，那里一条双向干道每到下午五点，为迎接出城车流高峰就变为单行线，而且某些牌照的车子在特定日期不得在城里上路。

至于未来，我想，主要依靠智能交通系统(ITS)，包括发现车流量缓慢、设定新限速以避免严重交通“冲击波”，及按照现行道路占有率进行实时定价收费等。虽然我们无法通过合理修路来适应交通流量，但是可以想办法并通过支付一定的费用来加以解决。