【英语中国】中国经济形势对南非货币有重要影响

As South African President Jacob Zuma visits China this week, he will be acutely aware of how important the world's largest country is to his own nation's currency.

South Africa's rand is sky-high despite shaky economic fundamentals and violent strikes in recent months. The government is so concerned about the rand's rise, and its effect on exports, that it is considering a tax on financial inflows to bring the currency back down, a move that could supercharge the country's cost of borrowing.

And yet, the main factor behind the rand's strength, and a possible drop in the future, is China, which is South Africa's biggest trade partner and a major consumer of its metals exports. Mr. Zuma wants to strengthen those ties, which is why he is visiting China this week as the head of a delegation of business and political leaders. The China trip comes after similar ventures to Brazil, Russia and India, the other so-called BRIC countries.

For now, the Chinese economy is motoring along fine, indirectly supporting South Africa and the rand in the process. But if China slows down sharply, the rand could take a hit, too.

South Africa's currency is a symbol of big themes in global financial markets over the past two years. Along with other emerging-market currencies, the rand plunged as investors fled to safety when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed in 2008. Since then, however, it has become one of the fastest-climbing currencies in the world.

In real terms, the rand has strengthened about 40% over that period, data from Morgan Stanley show, putting the rand a shade behind the Brazilian real in the global rankings.

Strong currencies make exports appear more expensive abroad and rarely please politicians. South Africa is no exception. This month, a document released by its ruling African National Congress party proposed capital controls -- taxes on inflows -- as a way to rein in the currency. The document, which lays out topics for discussion at September's party assembly, noted that 'the state must respond more effectively to factors that impose unnecessary costs on business and the economy, notably around the value of the rand.'

While currency analysts criticized the party's plans, they also expressed doubts over its effects, and the rand barely moved. Brazil took similar steps last year, and they did nothing in the long term to hold down its currency.

'It's a very difficult decision, and one they may not take,' Andre Roux, co-head of global fixed income at Investec Asset Management in Cape Town, said of the government's plans. 'A slowdown in China is more of a risk. There's a big risk there.'

The rand's strength comes against a backdrop of persistently high unemployment and public-sector strikes over pay that could, if successful, push South Africa's inflation rate, already predicted to be above 5% by the end of this year, even higher.

But with resource-hungry China, South Africa's economy has had a strong supporter in recent years. Overall, China accounts for more than 11% of South Africa's total exports.

Right now, the Chinese economy is expanding fast, playing a big role in keeping South Africa ticking.

The danger now, analysts said, is that signs of stress in the U.S. economy could slam the brakes on Chinese growth in coming months, sending shock waves as far as South Africa.

'People are thinking that they should go with the flow on the rand as long as metals prices remain above a certain level. If something hit those metals prices, like a slowdown in China, that would hurt,' said Elisabeth Gruie, an emerging-markets currencies analyst at BNP Paribas in London.

非总统雅各布•祖马(Jacob Zuma)本周访华，他将十分清楚中国这个世界上最大的国家对南非货币的重要性。

尽管经济基本面十分孱弱，近几个月还发生了几起暴力性罢工，南非货币兰特的汇率依旧居高不下。南非政府对兰特升值及其对出口带来的影响十分担忧，于是考虑对流入资本征税，以降低兰特的含金量，这一举动可能会拉高南非的借贷成本。

然而兰特坚挺以及日后可能出现的贬值等，究其主要原因是中国──南非最大的贸易伙伴和其金属出口的主要目的地国。祖马希望加强两国经贸关系，这也是他本周率团访华的目的，该代表团主要由商界和政坛领袖组成。中国是这支代表团继访问巴西、俄罗斯与印度之后的第四站，也是所谓“金砖四国”之旅的最后一站。

就目前而言，中国经济表现良好，这为南非及其货币兰特提供了间接支持。但如果中国经济增速突然放缓，兰特可能也会因此受挫。

南非货币在过去两年成为全球金融市场一些重大题材的标志。2008年，雷曼兄弟公司(Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.)破产后，投资者纷纷寻求避风港，于是兰特和其它一些新兴国家的货币暴跌。不过此后，兰特成为世界上升值最快的货币之一。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的数据显示，扣除物价因素，兰特这两年升值幅度高达40%左右，仅次于升值幅度名列全球前茅的巴西货币雷亚尔。

一国的货币若是坚挺，其出口价格就会显高，这几乎是各国领导人都不愿看到的事情，南非也不例外。本月，南非执政党非洲人国民大会(African National Congress)下发了一份有关资本控制的建议文件，要求对流入本国的资本征税，以遏制兰特升值。该文件为非国大九月即将召开的代表大会安排了讨论议题，并指出“对于在南非企业和经济身上、特别是兰特价值身上施加非必要成本的因素，国家应作出更为有效的反应”。

虽然货币分析人士批评了非国大的资本控制计划，但他们也对该计划的效果持怀疑态度，而兰特的汇率并未因这一计划的提出而发生什么变动。巴西去年也实施了类似举措，但长期来看，这些措施未能起到抑制雷亚尔升值的作用。

开普敦Investec资产管理公司全球固定收益部门的主管Andre Roux表示，实行这项资本控制计划是一项重大决定，南非政府可能不会采用。他说，中国经济放缓是一个更具威胁性的因素，这才是重大风险之所在。

在兰特保持坚挺之际，南非失业率居高不下，公职人员举行大罢工要求加薪，而罢工如果成功，则有可能将预计年底前会超过5%的南非通胀率推至更高。

不过由于中国对自然资源的渴求，南非近年来在经济上有了一个强有力的支持者。南非出口总量中，有超过11%都输往中国。

眼下中国经济发展迅猛，对南非保持正常经济运转发挥了巨大的作用。

分析人士说，目前的风险在于，美国经济显示出的疲软迹象未来几个月有可能导致中国经济增长急刹车，并波及到南非经济。

法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)驻伦敦的新兴市场货币分析师Elisabeth Gruie表示，人们现在认为只要金属价格保持在一定水平之上，就应任由兰特升值，但如果金属价格受到中国经济放缓等因素的打击，兰特则会遭受重创。