【英语中国】中国投资者考虑竞购Potash

A consortium led by Chinese private-equity fund Hopu Investment Management Co. is considering a possible bid for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., a person familiar with the situation said, the strongest sign yet that China could emerge as a rival suitor to BHP Billiton for the big Canadian company.

The Hopu consortium has investors from Canada, the U.S. and Asia, and includes at least two sovereign-wealth funds, the knowledgeable person said. It also includes a Chinese strategic investor with interests in mining or fertilizers. The person declined to identify the other parties, but said no decision has been finalized on whether to proceed with a bid for the Canadian fertilizer maker.

After Potash's rejection of BHP's unsolicited $38.6 billion takeover bid earlier this month, speculation has been swirling that an investor from China might put together an offer to trump BHP's bid -- or at least take a sufficiently large chunk to complicate the Anglo-Australian mining giant's ambitions. Potash Corp. has been trolling for offers that can top BHP's bid.

Chinese companies -- mostly state-owned firms, often backed by state-owned banks -- have been on a global resources investment binge during recent years to secure the raw materials needed for the country's fast-growing economy. No Chinese company has done a deal of the magnitude of Potash Corp., although state-owned Chinalco, or Aluminum Corp. of China, together with Alcoa Inc., did buy a combined 9% chunk of Rio Tinto for $14.1 billion in 2008.

Some analysts credited that purchase with disrupting BHP's attempt to acquire Rio Tinto -- a bid that Chinese officials feared would have given the combined entity pricing power over iron ore.

Other Chinese bids for Potash Corp. could yet emerge. Sinochem Corp., a Chinese government-owned company, and the Canadian company have been in contact in recent days about developing a new alliance, a person familiar with the matter said. Sinochem's fertilizer unit, Sinofert Holdings Ltd., is 22%-owned by Potash Corp.

The person added that much of the interest in Potash Corp., including Sinochem's, is preliminary, and no proposals have been made.

Li Qiang, a spokesman for Sinochem, said that the company has 'cooperated for years' with Potash Corp. and that Sinochem is closely watching developments. He declined to say whether Sinochem has talked to the Canadian company since the BHP bid.

The interest in buying Potash Corp. 'is a manifestation of how open Canada is to foreign investment,'' said Mel Cappe, president of Canadian public policy think tank Institute for Research on Public Policy. If the Chinese bidder proves to be government controlled, however, that could change the reception if the company's interest is determined to conflict with the Canadian public's, said Mr. Cappe. Canada provides for an additional review for state-owned buyers to ensure they 'play by the rules of the private sector,' said Joel Schachter, a lawyer specializing in foreign investments at Toronto-based Goodmans LLP.

Potash Corp. Chief Executive Bill Doyle said in an interview Monday that the fertilizer company has received 'exceptional' interest from a broad range of companies, although he didn't name any.

'You shouldn't limit your imagination,' Mr. Doyle said regarding potential bidders in any auction. The price offered by bidders will be the most important factor in deciding whether the company, which on Monday formally rejected BHP's $130-a-share hostile bid, should sell itself, he said. 'No one thinks the low-ball bid of $130 has any traction whatsoever.'

A BHP spokesman declined to comment.

Potash, a key ingredient in fertilizer, isn't as big a commodity for China as iron ore or crude oil, but agriculture is an especially sensitive industry. China's leaders are wary of anything that affects food prices for its huge population, and Beijing has a longstanding policy of trying to avoid dependence on foreign suppliers for essential farm products and materials.

It isn't clear whether China's government, which hasn't commented on the BHP bid for Potash Corp., is pushing Chinese companies to make counterbids. But Beijing has generally encouraged Chinese companies in their global resources investments.

Wei Chengguang, a division chief at the China Inorganic Salt Industry Association, said China hopes to become self-sufficient in potash by 2019 or earlier. 'We hope to break the foreign [dominance of supply] some day.' Mr. Wei added China will import about three million tons of potash this year, while continuing to export and produce locally. China's domestic demand is about seven million tons a year, he said.

Hopu isn't government-owned, but it is well connected politically and commercially, and has a record of assembling diverse groups to bid on deals. The company was co-founded by Fang Fenglei, a close friend of Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan, who led the formation of Goldman Sachs Group's Chinese securities joint venture in 2004. Mr. Fang still owns a stake in that venture and remains its nonexecutive chairman.

Goldman is an investor in Hopu, along with Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd., the Singaporean sovereign-wealth fund. Hopu in June led a group that included Temasek and sovereign-wealth funds to invest in Chesapeake Energy Corp.

位知情人士说，由中国私募股权投资基金厚朴投资管理公司(Hopu Investment Management Co.)牵头的一个财团正考虑出价收购加拿大钾肥公司Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc.。这是迄今为止中国有可能半路杀出、同必和必拓(BHP Billiton)争夺这家加拿大大公司的最强烈信号。

这位知情人士说，厚朴牵头的财团包括来自加拿大、美国和亚洲的投资者，至少有两家主权财富基金。其中还包括一家对采矿或化肥行业有兴趣的中国战略投资者。这位人士拒绝透露其他投资者，只说它们还没有最后决定是否展开对加拿大这家化肥生产商的收购。

必和必拓曾主动提出以386亿美元的价格收购Potash，在本月早些时候遭到拒绝。后来有传言说，一家来自中国的投资者可能会联合其他投资者，提出一项比必和必拓更加优厚的收购要约，或至少收购Potash相当一部分股份，从而加大必和必拓实现其业务雄心的难度。Potash公司一直在寻找可以超过必和必出价的收购报价。

近几年，为获取中国经济高速增长所需的原材料，中资企业大举投资于全球资源。这些企业多为国有企业，常常有国有银行的支持。2008年，国有企业中国铝业公司(Aluminum Corp. of China)联合美国铝业公司(Alcoa Inc.)，以141亿美元的价格收购了力拓公司(Rio Tinto)9%的股权。但还没有哪家中国公司做过针对Potash公司这类规模企业的并购交易。

一些分析人士认为，中铝这起收购行动是为了扰乱必和必收购力拓的企图。中国官员担心，如果收购成功，那么由此形成的联合实体将会获得铁矿石的定价权。

其他中国投资者也有可能会对Potash公司发起收购。一位知情人士说，国有企业中化集团公司(Sinochem Corp.)和Potash公司近几天一直在接触，商讨开展新的合作。中化集团生产化肥的子公司中化化肥控股有限公司(Sinofert Holdings Ltd.)有22%的股权为Potash公司持有。

这位人士还说，包括中化集团在内，收购Potash公司的兴趣在很大程度上都处于初步阶段，还没有正式提出收购报价。

中化集团发言人李强说，公司与Potash公司有多年的合作，中化集团正在密切关注事态发展。他拒绝透露必和必拓发出收购要约后中化集团有没有同Potash谈判。

加拿大公共政策智库公共政策研究所(Institute for Research on Public Policy)所长凯普(Mel Cappe)说，对Potash的收购兴趣显示出加拿大对外国投资非常开放。不过，凯普说，如果事实证明这家中国竞购者是由政府控制的，可能会改变人们对它的接受态度，人们会怀疑该公司的利益是否会与加拿大公众的利益相抵触。位于多伦多的高文律师事务所(Goodmans LLP)专攻外国投资的律师沙赫特(Joel Schachter)说，加拿大会对国有买家再进行一次评估，以便确保它们遵守私营领域的游戏规则。

化肥公司Potash首席执行长多耶尔(Bill Doyle)周一在接受采访时说，该公司已经接到了来自各类公司的“极大”兴趣，不过他没有透露任何公司的名字。

多耶尔在谈到拍卖中的潜在竞购者时说，你不该限制自己的想像力。他说，竞购者的开价将是决定公司是否出售的最重要因素。该公司周一正式拒绝了必和必拓提出的每股130美元的恶意竞购。多耶尔说，没有人认为130美元的低价竞购有任何的吸引力。

必和必拓发言人拒绝置评。

钾盐是一种重要的化肥成分。对中国来说，钾盐并不是像铁矿石或原油那么重要的大宗商品，不过农业是一个尤其敏感的产业。在人口众多的中国，领导人对任何会影响到粮食价格的事都心存警惕，北京的一贯政策是努力避免在重要农产品和原料上依赖外国供应商。

不清楚中国政府是否在敦促中国企业提出反报价，不过它通常鼓励中国企业进行全球资源投资。中国政府没有就必和必拓对Potash的竞购进行置评。

中国无机盐工业协会钾盐行业分会前会长魏成广说，中国希望在2019年前或更早实现钾肥自给自足；希望有朝一日打破外国在供应上的主导地位。魏成广还说，在继续出口和本地生产的同时，中国今年将进口约300万吨钾肥。他说，中国的国内需求每年约为700万吨。

厚朴并非政府所有，不过在政界和商界有着广泛的联系，还有将不同机构联合起来进行竞购的纪录。该公司的创始人之一是方风雷，他是中国国务院副总理王岐山的一位密友，2004年曾牵头成立了高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group)中国证券合资公司。方风雷仍在该合资公司持有一定的股份，并为公司非执行董事长。

高盛是厚朴的投资者之一，其他的投资者还包括新加坡主权财富基金淡马锡控股(Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd.)。6月份，厚朴牵头包括淡马锡和主权财富基金在内的一个财团投资了Chesapeake Energy Corp.。