【英语中国】中国经济重心开始内移？

Almost every Chinese city has an industrial park or two but few are as attractively named as the Big Peach Flower industrial zone in Hefei. And even fewer are growing as quickly. Gree, the country's biggest maker of air conditioners, opened a plant less than two years ago that already employs 10,000 people. Next door Midea, another air conditioner-maker, also has a vast factory.

What is most remarkable about these new plants is their location. Hefei is the capital of Anhui province, a rural backwater 400km inland from Shanghai, whose main role in the boom of the past three decades has been to supply labour to the factory towns on the south and east coasts. Now, however, the modern industrial world of the coastal region is coming inland to Anhui.

This shift inland could prove vital to China's economic prospects over the next few years. At a time of uncertainty about the country's ability to maintain high growth, the accelerated development of the centre of the country is providing an important fillip.

After an impressive rebound from the global crisis, China is running into new headwinds. The government is scaling back its massive monetary stimulus, prompting a slow-down in the growth of activity. Meanwhile, rising demand for exports from consumers in the US and Europe can no longer be relied upon. Increasing domestic demand is more important than ever given the mounting signs that the recovery in the rest of the world is faltering. Yet there are plenty of doubts about where any new growth will come from.

To answer that question, it helps to think in terms of economic geography. The country can be divided roughly into three zones. There is the prosperous, industrialised coastal belt from Beijing in the north through Shanghai in the east to Guangdong in the south. Then, to the far west, there is a vast expanse that has received heavy public investment but remains relatively poor and underdeveloped in spite of a few pockets of prosperity.

It is the third region – the centre – that is providing the new boost to the economy. In provinces such as Anhui, Hunan and Jiangxi, previously unfashionable cities are entering a phase of “industrial take-off”. A combination of rising costs and wages on the coast, better rail and road infrastructure, and stimulus spending is encouraging Chinese companies to join a rush that started as a trickle a decade ago. Hefei is one of the most striking examples.

“This is a process whose time has come,” says Paul Cavey at Macquarie Securities. “The possibility that central China can take on the baton of development from the maturing eastern provinces is clearly good news for national growth.”

The boom in Anhui and other parts of the centre is the result of a mix of government push and market pull. Public spending on transport infrastructure has transformed the sense of distance in parts that used to feel much more isolated from the coast.

Anhui, for instance, will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of heavy investment in high-speed railways, including the north-south line that will link Shanghai and Beijing, and the east-west line from Shanghai to Chengdu. The train journey from Hefei to Shanghai used to take eight hours. It can now be done in three and a half.

Ha Jiming, an economist at China International Capital Corporation, points out that Japan's investment in the Shinkansen high-speed rail network in the 1960s and 1970s helped redraw the economic map of the country, reducing the dominance of Tokyo and Osaka, and allowing places such as Nagoya and Fukuoka to emerge as industrial centres. The new rail lines will accelerate the “catch-up in central China”, he says. “It is creating a virtuous cycle. Relocation of companies creates new job opportunities and that will also encourage an increase in consumption.”

Yet it is not just government planners who are opening up cities in the central zone – it is also market forces. The south of the coastal area, in particular, has been hit in recent months by a wave of strikes by workers asking for higher wages, and many businesses have begun to question the competitiveness of producing in the region. A handful have decided the answer is to move to Vietnam, say, or Bangladesh. Many more, however, have opted instead to move inland.

A decade ago, Anhui received hardly any direct investment from other provinces. From 2006, however, the amount has nearly doubled every year and, according to the provincial government, it reached Rmb464bn ($69bn, ￠52bn, ￡43bn) last year – a huge sum for a relatively small, poor province. Alongside improved logistics, cheaper labour is among the main attractions. The minimum monthly wage in Shanghai is Rmb1,120; in Anhui, it is Rmb720.

Gree is one example of the investment surge. Founded in the early 1990s in Zhuhai, the southern city near Hong Kong, it has become one of the world's biggest manufacturers of air conditioners. It started production in Hefei only 18 months ago, but its plant now covers 730,000?sq?m – 18 times the size of a large football stadium – and produces 6m units a year.

On a smaller scale, Andier Electrical Equipment has a factory that employs 100 people in the southern city of Shenzhen, making aluminium tubes and steel pipes. This year it opened a plant of similar size in Hefei. Wang Gang, the general manager, says it made the move because production costs are 10 per cent lower than in the coastal regions and because so many of its clients were also moving production to Anhui and other parts of the centre.

The change in the flow of investment is shifting the dynamic of migration. Anhui is infamous for exporting its young to coastal regions to work on construction sites and factories. As many as one-fifth of its 67m population are working in other parts of the country. At New Year, hundreds of thousands pack the trains going back to the province.

That is beginning to change as jobs are being created locally. Liu Erlin, a 21-year-old Anhui native, found his first job in a factory on the south coast. But he returned last year and now works on the quality control line at the Gree plant in Hefei. “It is much easier now for me to go back to my family,” he says.

He Deqiu, who runs an online employment agency in Hefei called goodjobs.cn, says the number of local vacancies advertised on the site has risen 30-40 per cent annually in recent years. “You can see very clearly that the economy is developing from the coastal areas into central China,” he says. “There are plenty of people who have moved back to work locally, especially from southern China.”

If the flow of investment and returning migrants is sustained, it will transform other aspects of the local economy. Workers with reliable jobs will need homes, fuelling investment in the property sector. They will also look for smarter places to spend, boosting consumption growth. HSBC, which caters to high-end customers, has opened a branch in Hefei – a sign that there is a booming managerial class. Tesco, Wal-Mart and Carrefour have opened supermarkets for the new middle class.

Y et there are also signs that the growth in the centre could run aground. Like so many other boom towns, Hefei has its share of vanity projects. A government district has been built 10 miles from the centre, including a town hall with two 30-storey curved towers that look on to a man-made water feature called Swan Lake. The planned airport is designed in the shape of a fish.

中国几乎每座城市都有一两个工业园，但很少有名字像合肥大桃花工业板块那样吸引人，能赶上它那种增长迅速的就更少了。不到两年前，中国最大空调制造商格力(Gree)在这里建了一家工厂，如今已有雇员1万人。另一家空调制造商美的(Midea)在隔壁也有一家大型工厂。

这些新厂最引人注目之处在于它们的地理位置。合肥是安徽省省会，这个内陆农业省份距上海400公里。在过去30年的经济热潮中，安徽的主要作用是向东南沿海工业城镇输送劳动力。但如今，沿海地区的现代工业正在向内陆、向安徽进军。

现代工业向内陆转移，对于中国未来几年的经济前景可能至关重要。在中国保持高增长的能力面临不确定性之际，中部地区的加速发展将成为中国经济的重要推动力量。

在从全球危机中有力复苏后，中国遇到了新的困难。中国政府正在逐步撤销大规模货币刺激，造成经济活动增长放缓。与此同时，中国无法再依赖美欧消费者对出口需求的增长。越来越多的迹象表明，世界其它地区的复苏日趋不稳，因此国内需求的扩大变得比以往任何时候都更重要。然而，对于新增长将来自何方，人们还存在很多疑问。

要回答这种疑问，从经济地理的角度去思考问题会有所帮助。中国可以大致分为3个区域。首先是北起北京、东至上海、南达广东的沿海繁荣工业带。其次是幅员辽阔的西部地区，虽然中国对这里投入了大量公共资金，少数地区实现了繁荣，但整体上仍然相对贫困而且不够发达。

第三个区域是正在为中国经济提供新的增长动力的中部地区。在安徽、湖南和江西等省份，一些以前默默无闻的城市正在进入“工业腾飞”期。沿海地区成本和薪资上升，内陆铁路和公路基础设施改善，再加上刺激性支出，正鼓励中国企业纷纷涌向内陆地区，将10年前开始的涓涓细流变成了汹涌洪流。合肥就是最引人注目的例子之一。

“这个过程的时机已经到来，”麦格理证券(Macquarie Securities)的保罗?凯维(Paul Cavey)表示。“中国中部地区有可能从成熟的东部地区接过发展的指挥棒，这对于全国的增长显然是个好消息。”

安徽和中国中部其它地区的繁荣，是政府推动和市场拉动合力的结果。交通基础设施领域的公共投资，改变了一些过去感觉与沿海地区更为隔绝的地区的距离感。

例如安徽，就将成为大规模高速铁路投资的最大受益者之一。这些铁路包括纵贯南北的京沪铁路线和横跨东西的沪蓉高铁。过去，从合肥到上海乘坐火车需要8个小时。现在已缩短为3个半小时。

中金公司(CICC)经济学家哈继铭指出，日本上世纪六、七十年代对新干线(Shinkansen)高速铁路网的投资，重新描绘了日本的经济版图，降低了东京和大阪的优势地位，使名古屋和福冈等城市得以成为工业中心。新的铁路线将加快“中国中部地区的赶超步伐”，他表示。“这正在形成一个良性循环。企业搬迁会创造新的就业机会，进而刺激消费的增长。”

然而促成中部地区城市开放的不仅仅是政府的规划者，也有市场力量。特别是最近几个月，中国南部沿海地区受到一波员工加薪罢工潮的冲击，许多企业开始质疑在当地生产的竞争力。少量企业认为，解决办法是迁往越南或柬埔寨。然而，更多的企业选择了迁往中国内地。

10年前，安徽几乎没有任何来自其它省份的直接投资。然而，从2006年以来，来自外省的直接投资几乎每年翻一番。安徽省政府的数据显示，去年，安徽的省外直接投资达到4640亿元人民币（合690亿美元）——对于一个相对较小的贫穷省而言，这可是一笔大数目。除了物流得到改善外，更廉价的劳动力也是一个主要吸引因素。上海的最低月工资为1120元人民币，而安徽为720元。

格力就是省外投资飙升的一个例证。该公司于上世纪90年代初在毗邻香港的珠海市创建，如今已是全球最大的空调制造商之一。18个月前，格力在合肥投产，厂房面积现已达到73万平米——相当于18个大型足球体育场，年产空调为600万台。

安迪尔电器(Andier Electrical Equipment)在深圳的工厂有100名员工，生产铝管和钢管。今年，该公司在合肥建了一家类似规模的工厂。总经理王刚表示，该公司之所以这么做，是因为这里的生产成本比沿海地区低10%，而且许多客户也把生产迁到了安徽及中部其他地区。

投资流向的变化正在改变移民的格局。安徽以将年轻人输出到沿海地区建筑工地和工厂工作而闻名。安徽的6700万人口中，有五分之一在省外工作。在春节期间，数十万安徽人需要挤火车回家过年。

随着本地创造的就业机会增多，这种情况正在开始发生改变。21岁的安徽人刘二林的第一份工作是在南部沿海地区的一家工厂。但他去年回到家乡，如今在格力合肥工厂的质量控制线上工作。他说：“我现在回家方便多了。”

何德球在合肥经营着一家名为新安人才网(goodjobs.cn)的在线招聘机构。他表示，最近几年，该网站上本地职位的招聘数量每年增长30%至40%。“你可以非常清楚地看出，经济正从沿海地区向中部发展，”他表示。“很多人回来工作，特别是从南部沿海地区。”

如果投资流和移民返乡的趋势保持下去，当地经济的其它方面也将随之发生改变。拥有可靠工作的员工会需要住房，进而促进房地产领域的投资。他们还会寻找更时尚的场所进行消费，从而促进消费增长。迎合高端客户需求的汇丰银行(HSBC)已在合肥开了一家分支机构——表明那里拥有一个蓬勃发展的管理阶层。特易购(Tesco)、沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)和家乐福(Carrefour)也开设了超市，为新兴中产阶层服务。

不过也有迹象表明，中部地区的增长有可能搁浅。与许多其它新兴城市一样，合肥也有许多形象工程。政府在距离市中心10英里的地方建了一个政务文化新区，包括一座市政大厅和两座弧形设计的30层大厦，前面是一片名为天鹅湖的人工水域。规划中的新机场设计成鱼的形状。

过去一年许多城市出现的房地产热潮也蔓延到了合肥。巨大的广告牌上满是托斯卡纳和滨湖时代广场等楼盘的名字。在合肥市中心南部，多达50个高层住宅项目正在建设之中，即将形成一片巨大的新社区。当地房地产经纪机构安徽房产网(Ahhouse)的李新华表示，合肥房价去年上涨了50%，主要受到当地人购房的推动，但也有来自外省的投资者。他表示：“确实有一些投机性买房。”

然而，就像其它城市一样，自中央政府今年4月宣布了抑制房地产投机的措施以来，合肥的房地产市场一直陷于停滞。当地观察人士相当乐观，认为这里不会出现大规模崩盘。他们表示，房价会下跌10%左右，然后将重回上升通道。但没有人能够确定，政府能否令市场实现软着陆。