【英语中国】中国上半年增持韩国国债一倍以上

China more than doubled its direct holdings of South Korean treasury bonds in recent months as it turned to regional markets to invest some of its $2,450bn in foreign exchange reserves in currencies other than the US dollar and the euro.

Chinese holdings of Korean treasury bonds stood at Won3,990bn ($3.4bn) by the end of the June from Won1,870bn at the end of last year, according to the South Korean Financial Supervisory Service, the country’s financial watchdog.

The composition of China’s foreign exchange reserves, the largest in the world, are a closely guarded secret. The only Chinese investor allowed to make sizeable offshore bond purchases is the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe), which manages the reserves under the central bank.

Safe’s relatively small expansion into Korean government debt coincides with its purchase of a record Y1,733bn ($20.3bn) of Japanese bonds in the first half of the year, according to Japanese government data. That was almost seven times its whole purchases for 2005.

The bulk of China’s reserves have always been invested in US dollar securities, mostly Treasury bonds. But as the reserves have grown rapidly in recent years, Safe has been moving into other currencies and assets.

“The euro had been the key diversification tool for reserve managers in recent years but clearly the events since the end of last year have made the euro less attractive,” said Richard Yetsenga, HSBC’s global head of emerging markets foreign exchange strategy.

“It makes sense that Asian central banks have been looking at other diversification plays and Korea is an obvious choice.”

China appeared to trim its holdings of US Treasuries by $32.5bn in May and by $24bn in June, according to US government data. But analysts cautioned the drop did not necessarily signal a large-scale diversification.

They said monthly US Treasury data does not identify the original source of investment, so Safe may have increased its US holdings over that time through offshore subsidiaries and third-party fund managers.

US and Chinese officials both say fears that Beijing may dump US dollar assets are misplaced because there is no other market that is large or liquid enough to absorb China’s enormous holdings. “China will only reduce its US dollars by a very small amount and it will not have much impact on the market,” said Ding Zhijie, of Peking University.

Chinese Korean bond purchases accounted for more than one fifth of foreign inflows into the market in the first half of this year, compared with 10 per cent last year.

近几个月来，中国直接持有的韩国国债数额增加了一倍多。这说明它正转向地区市场来投资外汇储备，以求把本国2.45万亿美元外汇储备中的一部分投向美元和欧元之外的货币。

韩国金融监管机构——金融监督院(Financial Supervisory Service)的数据显示，截至今年6月底，中国持有的韩国国债增至3.99万亿韩元（合34亿美元），而去年年底时只有1.87万亿韩元。

中国外汇储备规模居全球第一，其构成则处在严格保密之中。隶属中国央行、负责管理外汇储备的国家外汇管理局(SAFE)，是中国唯一获准大量购买海外债券的投资机构。

在相对小规模增持韩国国债的同时，中国外管局还购买了大量日本国债。日本政府数据显示，今年上半年中国购买的日本国债达到创纪录的1.733万亿日元（合203亿美元）。这一数字几乎相当于中国2005年全年日本国债购买额的7倍。

中国的大部分外汇储备一直投资于美元证券，主要是美国国债。但随着中国外汇储备近几年来迅猛增长，外管局已开始把投资目标转向其它货币和资产。

汇丰(HSBC)新兴市场外汇策略全球主管理查德?耶岑加(Richard Yetsenga)表示：“近些年来，欧元曾是外储管理者手中主要的分散投资工具，但去年底以来发生的事情显然降低了欧元的吸引力。”

“亚洲各国的央行一直在考虑其它分散投资方案，这么做是明智的。而韩国是显而易见的投资选择之一。”

美国政府数据显示，中国似乎在5月份减持了325亿美元美国国债，在6月份减持了240亿美元。但分析师们告诫称，上述减持并不一定意味着中国在进行大规模的外储分散投资。

他们说，美国财政部月度数据并不辨认投资的原始来源，因此，外管局也可能在那段时间里，通过海外附属机构和第三方基金管理公司增持了美国国债。

美中两国官员都表示，对中国政府可能抛售美元资产的担心是杞人忧天，因为再也没有别的市场具备足够的容量和流动性来消化中国海量的外汇储备。北京对外经济贸易大学(UIBE)的丁志杰表示：“中国只会减持很少量的美元资产，不会对市场造成多大影响。”

今年上半年，在外资购买的韩国国债中，中国的购买额占五分之一以上，这一比例高于去年的10%。

译者/汪洋