【英语中国】德国奇迹？还是中国奇迹？

When Peter L?scher, Siemens' chief executive, told the Financial Times in May last year that Germany would emerge from the recession to “spearhead a fresh wave of industrial revolution”, it seemed a rash prediction. At the time, Europe's largest exporting country was in the middle of its deepest recession in more than 60 years.

Just 15 months on, Mr L?scher's vision is becoming reality. The German export engine has surged back to life and is leading the continent out of the crisis, emerging faster from the downturn than many of its neighbours. Germany's gross domestic product jumped 2.2 per cent in the second quarter from the preceding three months, taking the front rank in the eurozone. Friday's data prompted several economists to predict that its economy will grow by at least 3 per cent this year.

Production levels, exports and profits are rising rapidly in important sectors such as machinery, cars and chemical goods, while unemployment has reached the lowest level in several years. The strength of this “XL upswing” – as Rainer Brüderle, economics minister, calls it – is such that he clichéd German angst has evaporated. German businesses are basking in a summer optimism that contrasts sharply not only with the country's oft-seen pessimism but also with the dark mood in the US and the uncertainty that pervades other parts of Europe. Business confidence in Germany last month reached its highest in three years.

Yet there remain risks that threaten to derail the upswing – and not only because some sectors of the economy might be in danger of overheating. Growth is likely to slow in the remainder of the year, when government austerity measures kick in and companies' inventory restocking is expected to wane. But many executives are even more concerned that Germany's “new economic miracle” – as the domestic media call it – could really be a Chinese economic miracle.

In large parts of the economy, from premium cars to textile machines, demand is being heavily driven by China – raising questions over the extent of the country's dependence on a market whose growth has already started to slow.

For now, however, German industrialists have plenty of reasons to be cheerful. Many plants are running at full speed again, some companies are expanding capacity and many are re-hiring contract workers. Orders in the engineering sector, Germany's economic backbone that includes industrial giants such as Siemens as well as swaths of midsized family-owned companies, shot up by 32 per cent year-on-year in the first six months, following a drop of 38 per cent in the past year.

The order boom is spurring a new willingness to invest. After several years in which companies squirreled away most of their cash, many are ready to replace old equipment and expand their businesses. SAP, the world's largest business software maker, says its German sales grew at a double-digit rate in the first half of this year. “If you think about a company like SAP with such a mature brand and a well-founded marketplace growing at that rate, it speaks to the depth of the turnaround,” says Bill McDermott, co-chief executive.

Several large manufacturers – from Siemens to companies such as Audi, the premium carmaker that is part of Volkswagen – are heading towards record profits this year, driven by a weak euro and a strong position in Asia. Daimler, Audi and BMW all reported record operating profit margins of more than 9 per cent in their luxury automotive businesses in the second quarter, thanks to rapidly rising demand for their high-margin top-class models but also helped by hefty cost cuts initiated in the past few years.

“Germany is benefiting from its industrial strength and export power,” Siemens' Mr L?scher says, pointing to the country's technological edge in growth areas such as infrastructure and green products. Industrial products such as cars, machinery and medical devices make up almost one-quarter of gross domestic product – much more than in most European countries. Germany sold goods worth $13,681 (

西门子(Siemens)首席执行官罗旭德(Peter L?scher)去年5月时曾向英国《金融时报》表示，德国将摆脱衰退、继而“引领新一波工业革命”。这个预言显得有些轻率，当时，这个欧洲最大的出口国正处在其60多年来最严重的衰退之中。

在仅仅15个月后的今天，罗旭德的愿景正在成为现实。德国的出口引擎迅速恢复了活力，并正在引领欧洲大陆走出危机。与许多邻国相比，德国摆脱衰退的速度要更快。今年二季度，德国国内生产总值(GDP)环比增长2.2%，增幅位居欧元区前列。上周五公布的数据使得一些经济学家预测：德国经济今年将至少增长3%。

机械、汽车和化工品等重要部门的产出水平、出口及利润正在迅速攀升，失业率则触及数年来的最低点。这一“特大号复苏”（德国经济部长莱纳?布吕德勒(Rainer Brüderle)的说法）的力度是如此强劲，甚至冲散了德国人所惯有的不安感。德国企业正陶醉在夏日的乐观情绪中，这不仅与该国常见的悲观情绪形成鲜明对比，也与美国的阴郁气氛和弥漫在欧洲其它各处的不确定性反差强烈。德国商业信心指数上月升至三年来的高点。

不过，可能危及德国复苏的风险依然存在，这不仅仅是因为该国经济的某些部门存在过热的危险。随着政府紧缩措施发挥效力、企业补充库存的力度如预期般减弱，在今年剩余时间里，德国的增长很可能会放缓。但令许多高管更担心的是，德国国内媒体所称的德国“新经济奇迹”，实际上可能只是一个“中国经济奇迹”。

从豪华轿车到纺织机械，德国许多经济部门的需求都严重依靠中国推动。这使得人们纷纷质疑，德国对增长已开始减速的中国市场依赖度过高。

但就目前而言，德国工业家有充足的理由感到乐观。许多工厂恢复了全速运转，有些企业正在扩大产能，不少企业正重新雇用合同工。德国的经济支柱——由西门子等工业巨头和无数中型家族企业组成的工程部门，订单数在去年下滑38%后，今年上半年同比激增了32%。

订单激增将会刺激新的投资意愿。此前多年，企业都将大多数现金储存了起来，如今许多企业正准备更换旧设备、扩大自己的业务。世界最大企业软件制造商SAP表示，上半年，其在德国的销售一直在以两位数的速度增长。该公司联席首席执行官孟鼎铭(Bill McDermott)表示：“你想想，一家像SAP这样拥有成熟品牌及稳固市场地位的公司，都在以如此快的速度增长，复苏的深度由此可见一斑。”

由于欧元疲软，且它们在亚洲具有强势地位，一些大型制造商——从西门子到豪华轿车制造商奥迪(Audi)等公司——今年有可能会实现创纪录的利润。奥迪是大众(Volkswagen)的子公司。由于高利润率顶级车型的市场需求迅速爬升，加之过去几年启动了大规模的成本削减，戴姆勒(Daimler)、奥迪、宝马(BMW)均报告称，其二季度豪华轿车业务的营业利润率创下新高，超过9%。

西门子的罗旭德表示：“德国正受益于它的工业优势与出口能力。”他指的是该国在基础设施与绿色产品等增长领域的技术优势。汽车、机械、医疗设备等工业产品，占到了德国GDP的近四分之一——远远高于大多数欧洲国家的比重。去年德国人均出口额为13681美元，远远超出法国，是排名第三位的意大利的两倍。

德国咨询公司Simon Kucher & Partners董事长赫尔曼?西蒙(Hermann Simon)表示，其中一个原因是，德国对世界持开放的态度。“德国人去全球各地度假，而其它欧洲国家的人则倾向于待在家里，所以无法认识世界，”他说道。

确实，德国工业集团常常会比其它集团更快速地涉足欧洲以外的市场。例如，大众汽车30多年前就进入了中国，从而为这一多品牌制造商今天的市场统治地位播下了种子。一些较大的家族所有中小型工程公司，已经进入中国达数十年之久，比如，金属加工机械制造商SMS集团(SMS Group)。

西蒙表示，德国在优质利基市场的专业性，使得它的许多工业产品都不可或缺。“企业可以推迟这类投资，但他们无法完全省掉这些投资。”他以激光切割机生产商Trumpf为例说道：“如果Trumpf制造的所有机械突然消失，全球经济肯定会崩溃，因为所有精密金属加工公司将会被迫关门。”

着眼于利基市场与出口（甚至连小型家族所有工程公司，通常都将逾80%的产品出口），导致德国工业很容易发生波动，这与该国崇尚稳定的心态非常不符。乌尔里希?莱芬豪舍(Ulrich Reifenh?user)拥有一家以他名字命名的塑料机械制造商。他对过去两年的描述是：“开始我们是急速螺旋下降，现在我们是急速爬升。”

不过，过去十年，大多数公司都提高了自身的竞争力，并从根本上改善了劳动力的灵活性，所以有能力应付这种过山车式的状况。在自身的灵活性措施与政府资助的缩短工时计划的帮助下，许多企业在危机期间保住了核心员工。根据缩短工时计划，因工时缩短发生的工资损失，政府负责补偿其中的三分之二之多。

大型特殊化学制品公司朗盛(Lanxess)首席执行官贺德满(Axel Heitmann)表示：“德国在危机期间表现出色。雇主与雇员间达成的共识，使得管理者得以专注发展业务。”该共识的主要支柱是，包括德国金属业工会(IG Metall)在内的工会组织，愿意重点关注工作保障，而不是在危机期间要求加薪。

尽管实施这种“过冬”策略要付出劳动生产率短期下降的代价，但它取得了良好的效果，因为它推动企业加速摆脱了衰退。莱芬豪舍公司就是一个典型的例子。2009年当订单量减少逾一半时，该集团解雇了120名临时员工，并让1200名固定员工中的大多数人参加了缩短工时计划。今年，随着业务强劲复苏，该集团很快又开始聘用临时工、并重新全力投产，有些地区甚至还专门增设了班次。

尽管名为Kurzarbeit的缩短工时计划，单今年就将花费德国政府60亿欧元（合80亿美元），但它却帮助将整个危机期间的失业率维持在较低水平。这支撑了德国人民的消费意愿，尽管该国消费仍同往常一样处于低谷。7月份德国失业率为7.6%，是多年来的最低水平之一。

目前的复苏明显是V型复苏，在这种复苏的初始阶段，最令人担心的是供应问题，而Kurzarbeit等灵活性措施则帮助解决了大多数此类问题。尽管一些较小的供应商在上半年难以满足需求，但大多数公司都迅速恢复了产能。不过，芯片等一些周期性最强的行业仍然是个问题。例如，微型芯片制造商英飞凌(Infineon)的生产就滞后于需求的复苏。6月份，由于Harman Becker组装音响所需芯片供应不足，奥迪和保时捷(Porsche)的部分工厂几乎被迫停工。Harman是这两家汽车生产商汽车音响的供应商。