【英语中国】中国经济赶超日本 有喜亦有忧

China is expected to surpass Japan this year as the world's second-largest economy, an unprecedented position for a still-developing country and one that has brought strains as well as triumphs.

Second-quarter GDP figures from Japan reported Monday morning show that its economic output, at $1.288 trillion, fell short of the $1.339 trillion China reported for the three months ended in June.

That suggests that China is likely to pass Japan once and for all this year. China's output has topped Japan's before, in the last quarter of the year, when the Chinese economy tends to run hotter for seasonal reasons. Outpacing Japan in an early quarter is seen as a good indication that China has the momentum to zip past Japan for the full year.

Once final numbers for all of 2010 are compiled, many economists expect China to overtake Japan as the world's second-largest national economy in U.S. dollar terms. The gap between China's $5 trillion economy and the U.S.'s nearly $15 trillion output remains very large, and even at current growth rates-which may not be sustained-it would take China a decade or more to match the U.S.

The move would be 'a milestone for the global economy,' says Bruce Kasman, chief economist at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in New York. 'The impressive thing in China is how well they've gone through what has been a really difficult time for most countries and kept growing at a strong pace.'

A little over a decade ago, China was the world's seventh-largest economy at prevailing exchange rates. It passed Germany to wind up at No. 3 in 2007. For 2010, Germany is expected to rank fourth, France fifth and the United Kingdom sixth. The next emerging economy is Brazil, in eighth place after Italy.

China's exact global ranking is a function of how economies are measured. For example, in terms of purchasing-power parity, which takes into account the goods and services a country's currency actually buys at home, China has long since surpassed Japan for second place behind the U.S. By contrast, China's output per person, at about $4,000, is about a tenth that of Japan's.

China's shift in position has come as the Japanese economy has muddled through two decades of sluggishness, in stark contrast to China's sizzling growth.

Japan has seemed resigned over the past few years to the inevitability of its loss of economic pre-eminence in Asia. In an April survey of 2,392 people conducted by Asahi Shimbun, one of Japan's largest newspapers, 50% of the respondents said they considered Japan's economy being passed by China's and falling to the No. 3 spot a 'major problem'-but 46% didn't think it was.

The divergence in fortunes is evident to Tokyo taxi driver Koichi Yamata, who says he is picking up more Chinese tourists these days as cost-conscious Japanese take fewer cabs. However, he says, it is a sad reminder of how far Japan has fallen.

'It might not be right to say, but I honestly find it a little frustrating to see the Chinese enjoying the type of economic boom that we once had,' says Mr. Yamata.

In some ways, China is retracing the path Japan blazed during its boom of the 1980s, when Japan was the new economic heavyweight and its companies were putting money into building factories around Asia. China, to bolster its own position, has focused on reassuring neighbors about its plans for a 'peaceful rise,' spread aid and investment with fewer conditions than Western countries, and worked seriously in cultural outreach for the first time.

There is increasing awareness in foreign-policy circles that China's increasing economic weight can be threatening as well as attractive, and needs to be handled carefully.

'China has to consider its actions and its tone of voice, so that the world recognizes that we are a nice country and a nice people,' says Liu Jiangyong, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

China's collective national wealth is starting to translate into political clout, but also making it a target of criticism from other world leaders. Many Western officials see China's policy of export-led growth as the main cause of global trade imbalances. While China's economic strength may give it power and influence, it doesn't always win friends.

'There are very real limits to China's ability to translate its economic strength into soft power,' says Andrew Shearer, senior research fellow at the Lowy Institute of International Studies in Sydney. 'China always seems to overreach or underdeliver,' he says, pointing to a series of recent diplomatic tiffs with once-eager partners such as Vietnam, South Korea and Australia.

For South Korea, the March sinking of its patrol boat Cheonan in waters near North Korea has emerged as a turning point in its relations with China. The aftermath of that event, in which 46 South Korean sailors died, has underscored for South Koreans that while China may be their biggest trading partner, it is also the main ally of adversary North Korea.

A May investigation into the sinking, led by South Korea and involving investigators from the U.S., U.K., Sweden and Australia, blamed it on a torpedo attack by North Korea. China delayed for a month giving South Korea condolences on the sailors' deaths, and Beijing hasn't acted on South Korea's invitation to review the evidence of the investigation. China has also vocally criticized military exercises carried out by the U.S. and South Korea since the incident.

'China's behavior is quite the opposite of Korea's expectations,' says Han Suk-hee, a professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University in Seoul. 'It's a disappointment,' because some South Koreans had hoped strong economic ties would translate into better diplomatic and military relations. Earlier this year, a poll by the Pew Global Attitudes Project found 56% of South Koreans have an unfavorable view of China while 39% have a favorable one.

For Southeast Asian countries, China is a central economic partner: Last year, it became the largest trading partner of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, overtaking longtime leader Japan. But China's recent handling of long-simmering tensions over competing claims to islands and waters in the South China Sea has rung alarm bells.

At a forum last month that included Asean nations as well as China and the U.S., Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged all the countries with claims over the sea to participate in a joint process to resolve them. Diplomats said at least 12 countries supported the U.S. proposal to establish a dispute-settlement mechanism, which went against China's expressed preference for separate bilateral talks.

China reacted sharply to the coordinated push, and Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi spoke out against the U.S. proposal. China's foreign ministry, in a statement after the meeting that summarized Mr. Yang's comments, said Mrs. Clinton's 'seemingly impartial remarks were in effect an attack on China' and 'exposed the scheme of some to internationalize the South China Sea issue.'

That pushback from China lent credence to fears among smaller Southeast Asian nations that the increasingly strong Chinese navy could start to dominate important international waterways while Chinese diplomats played different countries off against one another.

'The response was a little off-script, and it unmasked what Southeast Asians all feared about China,' says Ernest Bower, director of the Southeast Asia program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies. 'This has cost [China] years of good work in terms of kinder and gentler relations.'

China's missteps have left an opening in Asia for older powers including the U.S. and Japan. In the face of China's growing regional presence, Japan has adopted a more sensitive approach to its Asian neighbors. The past five prime ministers have avoided visits to Yasukuni shrine, a site honoring Japan's war dead. Past visits had dredged up resentment across Asia over Japan's past militarism.

Last Tuesday, ahead of the 100th anniversary of Japan's annexation of the Korean peninsula, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan apologized to South Korea for its past colonization. Mr. Kan said he wanted to express 'deep remorse and heartfelt apology' for the great pain and damage caused by Japan's colonial rule. While other prime ministers have apologized in the past, Mr. Kan's apology was the first since the ruling Democratic Party of Japan took power last year.

预计中国将在今年超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体。对于仍然处在发展中的中国来说，这是一个从未享有过的地位，在带来胜利的喜悦之际，也给它带来了压力。

周一上午出炉的数据显示，日本第二季度国内生产总值(GDP)为1.288万亿美元，低于中国1.339万亿美元的二季度产出。

这意味着中国有可能在今年一举超过日本。中国过去曾有第四季度经济产出超过日本的情况，因为在一年的最后一季度，中国经济会出于季节性的原因而更加活跃。现在第二季度就超过日本，让人觉得中国的全年产出也很有把握将日本甩在身后。

很多经济学家预计，一俟2010年全年最终数据编制完成，中国将取代日本，成为按美元计算的世界第二大国别经济体。中国5万亿美元的经济规模同美国接近15万亿美元的产出之间差距仍然很大，即便是保持当前的增长速度，它也要花10年甚至更久的时间才能赶上美国，何况目前的增速还不一定能维持下去。

摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)驻纽约首席经济学家卡斯曼(Bruce Kasman)说，中国超越日本将是“全球经济的一座里程碑”。他说，中国让人印象深刻的是他们如何渡过了对多数国家来说都非常艰难的一段时期，并以强劲的步伐保持了增长。

10多年前，按当时汇率计算，中国是世界第七大经济体。2007年，它超过德国成为全球第三。2010年，预计德国将排在第四位，法国第五，英国第六。除中国以外最靠前的新兴经济体是巴西，预计它将排名第八，次于意大利。

中国在全世界的准确排名取决于各国经济规模如何衡量。例如按购买力平价计算，也就是考虑到一国货币在国内实际能购买多少商品和服务，那么中国早就超过了日本，成为仅次于美国的经济体。而相比之下，中国的人均产出为4,000美元左右，约为日本的十分之一。

这种地位的变化，时值日本经济停滞不前已经20年，跟中国的高速增长形成了鲜明对比。过去几年，日本似乎已经接受了将不可避免地失去亚洲经济领头羊地位的现实。

日本大报《朝日新闻》(Asahi Shimbun)4月份针对2,392人展开的调查显示，50%的受访者说他们认为日本经济被中国超过并滑落至第三位是一个“重大问题”，但有46%的人并不这样认为。

在东京出租车司机Koichi Yamata看来，两国命运的分化是很明显的。他说，这些日子，他接载的中国游客越来越多，而成本意识日益强烈的日本人却比以往更少乘坐出租车了。他说，这让人悲哀地联想到日本已经下滑了多远。

Koichi Yamata说，或许话不应该这样说，但看到中国人享受我们过去曾有的那种经济繁荣时，我真的觉得有些无可奈何。

某些方面，中国正在重走日本20世纪80年代繁荣时期在亚洲开拓出来的道路；当时，日本成为新的经济强国，其企业在亚洲各地纷纷投资建厂。为提高自己的地位，中国一直注重于安抚邻国，让它们对其“和平崛起”计划放心，其援助和投资的附带条件也少于西方国家。另外，它还第一次认真地实施文化输出工作。

外交界越来越真切地感觉到，中国经济实力的增强既有吸引力，也可以具有威胁性，需要小心处置。

北京清华大学国际问题研究所教授刘江永说，中国需要注意到自己的行为和语调，让世界认识到我们是友好的国家、友好的人民。

中国巨大的国民财富总量正在开始演变为政治影响力，但也因此而招致世界其他国家领导人的批评。比如很多西方官员认为，中国以出口带动增长的政策是全球经济失衡的主要原因。中国的经济实力可能会带给它权力和影响，但并不总是赢得朋友。

悉尼罗维国际政策研究所(Lowy Institute for International Policy)高级研究员希勒(Andrew Shearer)说，中国能不能把它的经济实力转化为软实力，存在着非常现实的约束因素。他说，中国似乎总是要么过头，要么不够，比如在近期，中国同越南、韩国和澳大利亚等曾经过从甚密的合作伙伴之间就发生了一系列外交争端。

对韩国来说，3月份韩国“天安”号巡逻舰在朝鲜附近水域的沉没成了对华关系的转折点。该事件的后果向韩国人凸显出，尽管中国或许是韩国最大的贸易伙伴，它也是对手朝鲜的主要盟友。“天安”号的沉没造成46名韩国船员遇难。

5月份展开的事件调查将责任归咎于朝鲜发射的一枚鱼雷。调查由韩国牵头，参与者包括来自美国、英国、瑞典和澳大利亚的调查人员。事件发生一个月后，中国才向韩国表达了对遇难船员的哀悼，北京方面也没有对韩国邀其评估调查证据一事作出反应。中国还直言不讳地批评事件发生后美国和韩国进行的联合军事演习。

首尔延世大学(Yonsei University)从事中国问题研究的教授韩硕熙(Han Suk-hee)说，中国的行为与韩国的期望恰恰相反，令人失望，因为一些韩国人曾希望强大的经济联系能转化为更好的外交和军事关系。今年早些时候，皮尤全球态度调查(Pew Global Attitudes Project)进行的一项民意调查发现，有56%的韩国人不喜欢中国，而有39%的人喜欢中国。

对东南亚国家来说，中国是一个重要的经济伙伴：去年，中国取代长期坐头把交椅的日本，成为东盟(Association of Southeast Asian Nations)10国最大的贸易伙伴。不过，对于围绕中国南海诸岛和海域的领土主权争议而酝酿已久的紧张关系，中国最近的处理方式给外界敲响了警钟。

在上个月东盟国家、中国和美国参加的一个论坛上，美国国务卿希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)敦促声称对该海域享有主权的各国参与到解决问题的联合行动中来。外交人士说，至少有12个国家支持美国提出的建立争端解决机制的提议，这与中国表露出来的进行单独双边谈判的想法相悖。

中国对各国协同努力作出了激烈反应，外交部长杨洁篪公开反对美国的提议。中国外交部在会后的声明中总结了杨洁篪的话，说“这种貌似公允的讲话实际上是在攻击中国”，“揭露了一些人推动南海问题国际化的图谋”。

中国的反驳使较小的东南亚国家对它的信任变为了担心，它们担心中国日益强大的海军可能开始主导重要的国际航道，而中国外交人士则在各国之间挑拨离间。

美国战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic & International Studies)东南亚项目负责人鲍尔(Ernest Bower)说，东南亚国家的反应有些出人意料，它暴露了东南亚各国对中国的顾虑，这使中国多年来树立的更友善、更温和的关系毁为一旦。

中国的失误为美国和日本等老牌大国带来了机会。在中国越来越多地参与地区事务之际，日本对亚洲邻国则采取了更加谨慎的做法。之前的五位首相都避免参拜供奉着日本战死军人的靖国神社。以往对靖国神社的参拜引发了亚洲各国对日本往日军国主义的怨恨。

上周二，在日本吞并朝鲜半岛100周年纪念之前，日本首相菅直人就过去的殖民统治向韩国道歉。菅直人说，他希望对日本殖民统治所带来的巨大痛苦和破坏表示深深的悔恨和诚挚的道歉。尽管其他首相过去也曾道过歉，但菅直人的道歉是日本民主党去年上台以来的首次。