【英语中国】7月份数据显示中国经济增长放缓

China data issued Wednesday showed industrial production and fixed-asset investment growth eased in July, indicating the country's economic activity continued to slow, and consumer price inflation picked up because of a spike in food prices.

The slowdown in output and investment growth come as the effect of stimulus measures fades and reflect government clamp-downs on property market speculation and polluting, energy intensive industries.

'China's growth is slowing, but we see no sign of a hard landing,' Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Lu Ting said in a note.

However, other economists disagreed, reflecting the lack of consensus on how worrisome the slowdown in those indicators is for broader economic growth, and how Beijing should respond.

'The main message from the data is that slowing demand could be adding to growth worries, which could possibly trigger the government to take a more accommodative policy stance,' said ING economist Prakash Sakpal.

Industrial production growth slowed to 13.4% in July from 13.7% in June, but came in slightly above economists' expectations of a 13.2% rise.

Urban fixed-asset investment in the January-July period rose 24.9% from a year earlier, down from the 25.5% rise in the January-June period. Economists had expected a 25.3% rise.

China's consumer price index rose 3.3% from a year earlier in July, up from June's 2.9% rise, because of higher food prices amid severe flooding in many areas across the country.

The rise in consumer prices was slightly below economists' expectations of a 3.4% rise. Analysts said they don't see great cause for alarm as the rise is mostly the result of one-off factors and they expect inflation pressures to decline in the months ahead.

'Inflation is always a cause for some concern, but there's nothing to suggest CPI will rise above 4% in the near term,' said Royal Bank of Scotland economist Ben Simpfendorfer, adding he expects the CPI's rise to be near the central government's 3% target for the remainder of the year.

Food prices, a major component of the consumer price index, rose 6.8% from a year earlier in July, up from the 5.7% rise in June. Non-food prices rose 1.6%, unchanged from June's 1.6% rise.

Underscoring receding inflationary pressures, the producer price index rose 4.8% in July from a year earlier, down from June's 6.4% rise and well below economist expectations of a 5.4% rise.

National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Sheng Laiyun welcomed the slowdown in industrial output and fixed-asset investment, saying it is the result of China's macroeconomic policies. A slowdown in economic growth will be good for China's economic restructuring and will help prevent economic overheating, he said at a news briefing.

Other economists said they were concerned about the rapid slowdown in loan growth in July and said it may be necessary for China to loosen its full-year lending target of 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.108 trillion), in effect an economy-wide credit quota.

Financial institutions in China extended 532.8 billion yuan worth of new yuan loans in July, central bank data showed Wednesday, bringing the total for the January-July period to 69% of the government's annual target.

The lending total for July was below the 600 billion yuan forecast in a poll of economists and lower than the 603.4 billion yuan worth of new loans extended in June.

Data also showed China's broadest measure of money supply, or M2, was up 17.6% at the end of July from a year earlier, down from the June's 18.5% rise and below expectations, which were for flat growth compared with June.

Goldman Sachs economist Yu Song said the slowdown in money supply and credit growth is alarming.

'We believe this level of broad money supply growth is clearly too restrictive as it will put more downward pressure on domestic demand growth in the near future,' he said in a note.

The People's Bank of China has said it won't change its 7.5 trillion yuan new loan target for 2010, but Yu said he feels it may be necessary.

中国周三公布的数据显示，7月份工业增速和固定资产投资均放缓，暗示中国经济活动持续减慢，消费者物价因食品价格上升而上涨。

工业增加值和投资放缓是刺激政策效应消退的结果，而且反应了政府对地产市场投机和污染、能源密集型产业的严格管制。

美银美林（Bank of America-Merrill Lynch）经济学家陆挺在研究报告中说，中国经济增长正在放缓，但我们没有看到硬着陆的迹象。

但其他经济学家持不同意见，反映这些经济指标下降让范围更广的经济增长有多不安以及中国政府应如何回应，这些经济学家缺乏统一的看法。

荷兰国际集团（ING）经济学家莎克帕（Prakash Sakpal）说，数据传递出来的主要信息是，需求放缓可能加剧经济增长忧虑，这或许导致政府采取更宽松的政策。

7月份工业增加值较上年同期增长13.4%，增速低于6月份的13.7%，但略高于经济学家预计的增长13.2%。

1-7月城镇固定资产投资较上年同期增长24.9%，增速低于1-6月的25.5%，经济学家此前预计增长25.3%。

受全国范围水灾的影响，食品价格上升，7月份消费者价格指数（CPI）较上年同期增长3.3%，增速高于6月份的2.9%。

消费者价格指数增幅略低于经济学家此前预计的3.4%的涨幅。分析师表示，他们认为这不会引起恐慌，因为涨幅主要是一次性因素导致的，他们预计未来几个月通胀压力将下降。

苏格兰皇家银行（Royal Bank of Scotland）经济学家贝哲民（Ben Simpfendorfer）说，通胀总会引起一些忧虑，但没什么信号暗示短期内消费者价格指数将升逾4%。他补充说，预计年底前消费者价格指数升幅将接近中国政府设定的3%目标。

作为消费者价格指数重要组成部分的食品价格，7月份同比上涨6.8%，高于6月份涨幅5.7%。非食品价格上涨1.6%，涨幅与6月份一致。

7月份生产者价格指数同比上涨4.8%，较6月份涨幅6.4%下滑，并远低于经济学家预测的涨幅5.4%。这说明通胀压力正在缓解。

国家统计局发言人盛来运对工业产出和固定资产投资的下降表示欢迎，他说，这是中国宏观经济政策的结果。他在新闻发布会上说，经济增长放缓有利于中国经济结构的调整，并将有助于防止经济过热。

其他经济学家说，他们对7月份贷款增长的迅速放缓感到担心，并说，中国可能有必要放宽其7.5万亿元（合1.108万亿美元）的全年新增贷款目标。这个目标实际上是一种提供给整个经济体的信贷配额。

周三发布的央行数据显示，中国金融机构7月份新增贷款5,328亿元，1-7月的新增贷款总额达到了政府全年目标的69%。

7月份新增贷款总额远低于一项调查中经济学家预测的6,000亿元，也低于6月份新增贷款总额6,034亿元。

数据还显示，截至7月底，中国最广义的货币供应指标M2同比增长17.6%，增幅低于6月份的18.5%，也低于预期。经济学家曾预计7月份增幅和上月持平。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家宋宇说，货币和信贷供应的放缓发出了警示信号。

他撰写简报说，我们认为这种水平的货币供应增速明显过于紧缩，因为短期内它会给内需的增长施加更多下行压力。

央行曾说，它不会改变2010年新增贷款7.5万亿元的目标，但宋宇说，他觉得可能有必要改变这个目标。