【英语中国】调查显示中国经济增速放缓

=WSJ BLOG/China Real Time Report: Poll Shows Growth Is Slowing

China's economic growth is slowing from double-digit rates to around 8% as the government dials back its extraordinary economic-stimulus policies to more normal settings, a new poll by The Wall Street Journal shows.

The poll, the latest in a quarterly series by the Journal, asks economists for their estimates of China's growth in the same seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter terms used by other major economies. China officially reports changes in gross domestic product only relative to the same period a year earlier, which can make it harder to discern turning points in the economy. The current slowdown appears to be viewed largely positively by Chinese policy makers, who since early this year have been taking measures to reduce the risk to the economy from surging house prices and rapidly expanding debts. Markets seem largely unfazed as well: Chinese stocks have actually been rallying in recent weeks, as many investors expect the government will not take additional steps to cool the economy and may even take new measures to support growth.

'It is highly likely that the economy will slow down and stabilize in the future, but a 'double dip' is not very likely,' China's central bank said in its quarterly report on the economy last month. 'The current economic slowdown is a correction of the excessively rapid expansion in earlier periods...[and] helps the structural adjustment and sustainable growth of China's economy.'

Given the strong start to the year--official figures put economic growth in the first half at 11.1%--China is still likely to be one of the fastest-growing economies in the world in 2010. The World Bank is expecting growth for the full year to average 9.5%. Though most expect the slowdown in the second half to be moderate, the cooling-off could still be challenging for a country accustomed to a long run of double-digit growth.

According to the median estimate of the 13 economists surveyed, China's GDP in the second quarter expanded 8.4% from the previous quarter on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, slowing from the first quarter's estimated 10.4% growth.

Those calculations suggest a sharper deceleration than the official figures, which show 10.3% year-on-year growth in the second quarter following the 11.9% gain in the first quarter. The second-quarter slowdown was also more pronounced than economists had forecast in the previous poll.

Economists expect the slowdown to continue, with their forecasts centering on annualized growth of 7.9% in the third quarter and 8.3% in the fourth quarter, though they generally expect growth to pick up again to about 9% over the course of 2011. Forecasters were divided over when growth will re-accelerate, with some expecting that to happen as early as the fourth quarter of 2010 and others not until the second quarter of 2011.

Private-sector economists have to make their own estimates of China's seasonally-adjusted quarterly growth without much official guidance on the data, which means that calculations often vary widely. There is also disagreement among professional forecasters on the correct way to make seasonal adjustments to data from a rapidly-changing economy like China's, compounding the uncertainty around the figures.

The People's Bank of China did not give its own estimate of quarter-on-quarter growth in its latest report, which it had in previous quarters. Economists have in the past criticized the central bank's estimates of quarterly growth for showing an unrealistic trajectory for the Chinese economy. China's statistics agency has also said it will start publishing such seasonally-adjusted growth figures this year, but has not yet done so.

Participating in the Journal's poll were economists on the staff of Barclays Capital, Capital Economics, China International Capital Corp., Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Royal Bank of Scotland, Standard Chartered and UBS, as well as the independent economist Albert Keidel.

《华尔街日报》的一项最新调查显示，中国经济增幅正从两位数回落至8%左右，原因是中国政府在收回大规模的经济刺激政策，逐步使经济政策回归常态。

《华尔街日报》在这份最新出炉的季度性调查中，请经济学家们对中国经济的增长作出预测，具体预测经季节性因素调整后的季度环比增长率。其他主要经济体都会公布这一增长率，中国官方公布国内生产总值(GDP)数据时只公布同比增幅，即较上年同期的变化，这就增加了辨识经济拐点的难度。中国的决策者们似乎在很大程度上对目前的经济放缓持积极看法，他们从今年初开始就一直采取措施，使经济避免因高涨的房价和快速增加的债务而遭受风险。市场似乎也没怎么担心：实际上中国股市最近几周都在上涨，因为许多投资者预计政府不会再采取新的经济降温措施，甚至可能反而采取新的保增长举措。

中国央行上个月在其季度经济报告中说，中国经济将来放缓趋稳的可能性很大，但不大可能出现二次探底。它说，当前经济增长放缓是前期过快上涨的回调......有利于国民经济结构的调整和经济的可持续增长。

鉴于中国经济今年开局良好──官方数据显示上半年经济增速达11.1%──中国2010年仍有可能成为全球增长最快的经济体之一。世界银行(World Bank)预测今年中国全年的平均经济增速将达到9.5%。尽管多数人预计中国经济下半年只会温和放缓，但对于一个习惯了长期保持两位数增长的国家来说，这种降温依然不那么好受。

AFP/Getty Images合肥一名矿工准备从火车上卸煤13位接受调查的经济学家的预测中值是：中国二季度GDP经季节性因素调整后较上季度的增幅折合成年率为8.4%，增幅不及第一季度10.4%的估测值。

相比官方数据，这种估计所显示的经济减速更为严重。官方数据是第二季度经济同比增长10.3%，低于一季度11.9%的增长率。这次调查中得到的估计数字，也低于上一次调查时经济学家们的预测。

经济学家预计中国的经济增速将会继续减缓。他们对第三季度年化增长率的预测中值是7.9%，对第四季度年化增长率的预测中值是8.3%。但他们普遍预计中国经济的增长速度会再次回升，2011年的平均增速将达到9%左右。至于经济增长何时再次加速，经济学家们看法不一，有的预计最早会发生在2010年第四季度，其他人则预测要等到2011年第二季度。

民间经济学家需要在没有多少官方指导的情况下，自行估计中国经季节性因素调整后的季环比增长速度，所以他们的计算结果常常相差很大。而对于中国这样一个快速变化的经济体，究竟应该怎样对其数据进行季节性调整才合适，专业人士在这个问题上也没有统一的意见，从而进一步增加了数据的不确定。

中国央行在最近的报告中，没有像前几个季度那样给出它自己的季环比增长率数字。经济学家过去对央行的季环比增长率估测不乏批评，认为它没有反映出中国经济运行的现实轨迹。国家统计局也曾说，它将在今年开始发布这种按季节性因素调整后的增长率数据，但到目前为止还没有发布。

参与《华尔街日报》这次调查的经济学家分别来自于：巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)、Capital Economics、中国国际金融有限公司(China International Capital Corp.)、花旗集团(Citigroup)、德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)、高盛(Goldman Sachs)、摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、经济合作与发展组织(OECD)、苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)、渣打银行(Standard Chartered)和瑞士银行(UBS)。独立经济学家盖保德(Albert Keidel)也参与了调查。