【英语中国】降能耗还是保增长？中国陷两难

A slowdown in China's factories may prove to be more than just a seasonal matter, if Beijing's plans to cut energy use trump its desire to keep growth motoring ahead.

China's official purchasing managers index fell in July to its lowest level since February 2009. Economists were quick to attribute this to seasonal factors, such as the annual summer overhaul for China's factories: July PMI readings tend to be around 1 point lower than the previous month, Goldman Sachs says, as they were this year.

There's another factor at play: China's plan to cut energy intensity -- or the amount of energy used to produce each dollar of gross domestic product -- by 20% between 2006 and 2010. In 2007, the latest year for which comparative data is available, China's energy intensity was 4.2 times that of the OECD, U.S. Energy Information Administration data show.

But China's in danger of falling short of its goals. Energy intensity fell by 15.61% from 2006 to 2009, but actually rose in the first quarter of 2010. Heavy industry, the most energy-hungry sector, is going to have to bear the brunt of any catch-up, particularly if Beijing is eager to meet its own target for this year. Closing down inefficient plants is a quicker fix than making technological upgrades.

The trade-off is with slower overall economic growth. Tao Wang, China economist at UBS, estimates that Beijing will have to accept a two percentage point reduction in second half GDP growth if it also wants to hit the energy efficiency target. That, she says would help take second-half growth to 8.8% on-year or even lower, down sharply from 11.1% in the first half.

True, slowing property construction could lead to less heavy industry output without the need to close so many factories. Plus, there's always the chance of changes to past data to make the five-year-plan targets less challenging. Last month Beijing revised its energy-intensity reduction rates upward for each of the years 2006-9.

Data revisions, though, are unlikely to get Beijing fully off the hook of a dilemma of its own making.

如果中国政府打算削减能源使用的决心胜过了它保持增长的愿望，那么中国工厂扩张的减速或许就不仅仅是一个季节性问题了。

中国7月份官方采购经理人指数（PMI）降至2009年2月以来的最低点。经济学家很快将其归咎于一些季节性因素，如中国工厂一年一度的夏季检修：高盛（Goldman Sachs）说，7月份PMI一般来说要比前一月要低一个点左右，去年亦是如此。

不过还有一个因素在起作用：中国计划2006到2010年期间使单位国内生产总值（GDP）能源消耗降低20%。据美国能源情报署（U.S. Energy Information Administration）掌握的最新可比较数据显示，中国2007年的单位GDP能耗是经合组织（OECD）的4.2倍。

然而中国有可能完不成这一目标。2006至2009年期间其能耗虽然下降了15.61%，但今年第一季度实际上却出现了上涨。 而为追赶这一目标付出的任何努力都会使能源使用最高的重工业领域不得不承受冲击，尤其是当北京迫切希望到达自己设定的2010年降耗目标时。直接关闭效率低下的工厂是比进行技术升级更为立竿见影的做法。

要达到降耗目标，用来交换的就是降低整体经济增速。瑞士银行（UBS）中国问题经济学家汪涛估测，如果北京想达到能效目标，将不得不接受下半年GDP增速减少两个百分点。她说，这将使下半年GDP较上年同期的增速降至8.8%，甚至更低，远远不及上半年11.1%的增速。

诚然，房地产建筑活动的减少会在无需关闭如此多工厂的情况下降低重工业产出。而且，对过往数据进行修正的可能性也一直存在，这会让降低能耗的五年计划变得更加容易实现。上个月北京就上调了2006至2009年期间各年的降耗率。

然而，修改数据不大可能帮助北京完全摆脱这一由它自己造成的两难处境。