【英语中国】中国大规模进口玉米引猜疑

China's first big purchases of U.S. corn in more than a decade have triggered a debate over whether exports of America's biggest crop are entering a new golden era. But the one party that could potentially settle the question -- China's government -- is hardly talking.

Excitement was sparked in June when a ship loaded with U.S. corn arrived at the port of Longkou on China's eastern coast, the first ship fully loaded with U.S. corn to dock in China in about 15 years. It was followed by four more.

China has now imported about 1.2 million metric tons of corn this year from the U.S., the world's largest producer, compared with total imports from all countries of less than 100,000 tons in previous years.

Farmers, traders, and agricultural economists are divided over the implications of this surge. Some see it as the arrival of a long-anticipated age of big corn exports to China to feed its increasingly wealthy population. Others think it's probably a short-term blip caused by recent droughts.

'Whatever is happening, this year is definitely quite different from anything' occurring in recent years, says Jay O'Neil, an economist with Kansas State University's International Grains Program.

He added that China's recent corn imports 'means there are fewer countries supplying the needs of a growing world and the potential for crop production shortfalls is a greater risk to everyone.' The change 'obviously leads to more uncertainty in the world commodity markets and tends to lead to higher commodity prices and greater price volatility.'

Predicting China's corn demand is complicated by the Chinese government's intense secrecy. The Communist Party has long considered grain self-sufficiency a core element of national security, and the leadership reaffirmed earlier this year that China aims to produce at least 95% of the grain it consumes through 2020. But details of the policy are closely guarded.

Self-sufficiency is widely believed to have been the reason China imported almost no corn in the past, even when domestic prices were higher than global prices.

No one outside the Chinese government is certain whether the shipments allowed in this year are temporary or indicate a longer-term shift. The government keeps the size of its grain reserves secret, and some observers question the accuracy of the statistics it does publish, says a western industry official who watches Chinese grain policy.

The confusion over corn is indicative of a larger clash between China's growing economic clout and government practices that in some respects have changed little during three decades of market reforms. China is expected to surpass Japan this year as the world's second-largest economy after the U.S., but major policies are still set in secret by a small group of party leaders. Outside experts frequently complain about the lack of transparency in official data, and uncertainty over Beijing's policies has roiled global markets for other commodities like oil.

Seeking greater clarity can be risky: Vague state-secrets laws have been used to imprison some analysts for collecting commercial information that China deems sensitive. Last month, U.S. geologist Xue Feng was sentenced to eight years in prison for his research on the location of oil wells.

China's Ministry of Agriculture declined an interview request on corn policy, saying the subject is too sensitive. The Ministry of Commerce and the National Development Reform Commission, China's main economic planning agency, also declined interview requests. Even Western experts in China refused to discuss the issue publicly.

Reflecting the sensitive nature of China's corn situation, the Obama administration has purposefully said little about the recent U.S. shipments to China, even though the administration has made expanding exports of U.S. goods a big part of its economic strategy.

In a rare statement on the subject on its website last week, the NDRC played down the recent corn imports. It said the recent imports were driven by higher domestic prices for corn, but stressed that they wouldn't hurt Chinese corn farmers and that China's grain reserves are adequate. The statement didn't address how long the recent influx of corn imports would last.

Most analysts agree China's corn supplies have been strained by the appetite of its growing middle class, who consume increasing amounts of pork, milk and eggs from animals that eat corn feed. Severe droughts across China's northeastern corn belt over the past two years exacerbated supply concerns.

China used to be a major net exporter of corn, competing with the U.S., but its exports fell to just 130,000 tons in 2009 from more than three millions tons in 2006, according to data from China's National Grain and Oil Information Center.

Reuters在长治，一名妇女在自家门前摆放玉米中国逾十年来首次向美国大规模购买玉米的交易引发了一场争论，即美国最大的农作物出口是否正进入一个新的黄金时期。但有可能解答这一疑问的一方──中国政府却几乎缄口不言。

当一艘载有美国玉米的船只6月份抵达中国东部沿海的龙口港时，引发了人们的兴奋之情。这是大约15年来第一艘满载有美国玉米的货船停靠中国。接下来又有四艘抵达。

中国今年来已自全球最大的玉米生产国美国进口了约120万公吨的玉米，相比之下，前些年中国从所有国家进口的玉米还不足10万吨。

对于这一进口突然大幅增加的现象说明了什么，农民、交易员以及农业经济学家有着不同的看法。有人认为这表明随着中国人变得更加富有，期盼已久的向中国大幅出口玉米的时代已经来临。其他人则认为这也许只是由中国最近的干旱问题引发的昙花一现的现象。

堪萨斯州立大学(Kansas State University)国际谷物项目(International Grains Program)的经济学家奥尼尔(Jay O'Neil)说，不管发生了什么，今年肯定与近年来所发生的任何事都有着很大不同。

他还说，中国最近的玉米进口意味着越来越少的国家在满足不断增长的世界人口的需求，而可能出现的农作物产量短缺对每个人来说都是一种更加严峻的风险。这一变化显然将增加全球大宗商品市场的不确定性，往往还会推高商品价格，加大价格波动性。

预测中国玉米需求的问题因中国政府严格的保密举措而变得复杂。共产党长期以来都将实现粮食供应自给自足作为维持社会稳定的核心因素，中国领导人今年早些时候也重申，到2020年底时中国所消耗粮食至少95%将由自己生产。不过这一政策的细节却处于严格保密中。

自给自足普遍被认为是中国过去几乎没有进口玉米的原因，即使是在国内价格高于全球的情况下。

除了中国政府，没人能弄清楚今年获准的玉米进口究竟只是暂时，还是预示着一种长期的转变。一位研究中国粮食政策的西方行业官员说，中国政府对粮食储备的规模秘而不宣，而一些观察家又对政府已公布数据的准确性提出质疑。

中国的经济影响力正与日俱增，但政府某些方面的做法在30年的市场化改革中并没有多大改变。有关玉米的困惑，正是这种矛盾的一个反映。预计中国将在今年超过日本，成为仅次于美国的第二大经济体，但其重大政策仍然是由党的少部分领导人秘密制定的。外部专家对官方数据透明度的缺乏常有怨言，而北京政策的不确定性也曾扰乱全球的石油等大宗商品市场。

如果要进一步了解真相，可能会有风险。有关国家机密的法律模棱两可，一些分析人士因为搜集中国认为敏感的商业信息，就曾被当局利用这种法律投入监狱。上个月，美籍地质学家薛峰（音）因为研究中国油井的分布，被判处有期徒刑八年。

中国农业部回绝了有关玉米政策的采访请求，说这个话题过于敏感。商务部和主要经济规划机构国家发改委也拒绝了采访请求。连中国国内的西方专家都拒绝公开讨论这个话题。

作为中国玉米形势敏感性的反映，奥巴马政府有意在近期输华玉米的问题上不多说话，尽管这届政府已经把扩大美国商品出口当作其经济战略中的重要部分。

发改委上周少见地就玉米问题在其网站上发表声明。声明对近期的玉米进口做了淡化处理，说它是由国内玉米价格升高带动的，但强调这不会损害中国玉米种植户的利益，并且中国的粮食储备是充足的。声明没有谈到近期大量进口玉米会持续多久。

多数分析人士都认为，中产阶级的不断增长加剧了玉米供应的紧张，因为他们消费的猪肉、牛奶和鸡蛋越来越多，而相关的牲畜都吃玉米饲料。中国东北玉米种植带过去两年遭遇严重干旱，进一步加深了人们对供给的担忧。

中国过去曾是净出口玉米的主要国家之一，同美国构成竞争，但国家粮油信息中心的数据显示，到2009年，出口量已从2006年的300多万吨下降到仅13万吨。