【英语中国】中国二三线城市房价未出现太大调整

China's property-market restrictions instituted in April, including higher mortgage down-payment requirements for second and third apartments, appear to be achieving their intended effect. High-end property sales have fallen sharply in China's wealthiest cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. If official statistics are to be believed, prices have so far fallen only marginally, but they are expected to come down further.

In gauging the overall impact on China's economy, however, the most important factor to watch is whether the measures will cool interest in new property development. If so, it could have a substantial chilling effect on economic growth, economists say.

To see what is happening beyond China's coastal megacities, Standard Chartered economists led by Stephen Green have polled 30 developers in some of China's less prominent cities, dubbed 'Tier 2' and 'Tier 3' cities in the jargon of China watchers. Their conclusions will be reassuring to those fretting over a nationwide collapse in property investment.

'The Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities have not seen much of a correction in land or apartment prices. Moreover, developers' sentiment about sales volumes seems pretty good, and they do not appear to be postponing construction,' Standard Chartered said in a report on Tuesday. 'This is important, since if sales and construction activity holds up in most Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, then the economy will not tank, and the State Council will not be forced to loosen real-estate or monetary policy.'

Developers in China's runner-up cities, including the likes of northeastern port city Tianjin, wild-west metropolis Chongqing, and former Kuomintang capital Nanjing, expect their total sales volumes to fall by 20%-30% this year, but Standard Chartered characterizes such a decline as 'eminently survivable.'

Perhaps most importantly, 24 of the 30 developers polled said they haven't pushed back any construction projects, and 28 said they haven't pushed back any sales launches either. A wave of new apartments appear set to come onto the market in September and October, the survey finds.

The relatively mild slump in China's lesser cities is mostly because they experienced a less fantastic boom. During the major property market up cycle from mid-2009 to March 2010, prices rose by only 10-20% in the Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, according to the developer survey. That compares with an average 34% rise in the top-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, Standard Chartered said, citing data from the China Real Estate Information Corp.

'This distinction undermines the view that the whole country is experiencing a real-estate bubble,' Standard Chartered said in the report. 'Price rises of 10%-20% in cities where urban incomes are likely rising at a similar pace are entirely reasonable, in our view.'

4月份中国出台的楼市调控政策看起来开始收到预期的效果。调控措施包括提高第二套和第三套房的首付比例。在北京和上海等最富有的城市，高档住房的销售量大幅下滑。如果官方统计数字可信的话，目前为止房价仅有小幅下滑，但预计会进一步下跌。

Bloomberg News中国上海一处建筑工地。不过，在评估对中国经济的总体影响时，需要关注的最重要一点是这些措施是否能给对房地产开发的兴趣降降温。经济学家说，如果能，则可能对经济增长带来相当大的降温效果。

为考察中国沿海大城市以外地区的情况，由王志浩(Stephen Green)率领的渣打银行(Standard Chartered)经济学家对中国部分较不发达的二、三线城市的30家开发商进行了调查。他们的结论对那些担心房地产投资会发生全国性崩溃的人将是一种安慰。

渣打银行周二在报告中说，二、三线城市的土地价格或房价并没有出现太大的调整。此外，开发商对房屋成交量看起来很乐观，看来也没有推迟施工。这很重要，因为如果大部分二、三线城市的销售和施工活动持续进行的话，经济将不会走下坡路，国务院将不必放宽房地产政策或货币政策。

中国二、三线城市的开发商预计今年房屋总成交量将下滑20%至30%，不过渣打银行将这样的下滑形容为“很可以挺过去的”。这些城市包括东北港口城市天津、西部大城市重庆和南京。

或许最重要的是，30个受访开发商中有24个说，没有取消任何施工项目，28个开发商说也没有取消任何新楼盘的推出。调查发现，看起来9、10月份将有一大批新楼盘上市。

中国二、三线城市楼市的相对温和下滑主要是因为此前这些城市的房地产热没有那么火爆。据对开发商的调查显示，从2009年年中至2010年3月的楼市主要上升周期中，二、三线城市的房价仅涨了10%至20%。渣打银行援引中国房产信息集团的数据说，相比之下，北京、上海和深圳等一线城市的房价平均涨幅为34%。

渣打银行在报告中说，这样的差别动摇了全国都在经历房地产泡沫的看法，我们认为，在收入以10%至20%的速度增长的城市，房价以类似的幅度上涨是完全合理的。