【英语中国】中国股市反弹 散户反应平淡

China's domestic stock market may have refound its mojo, but one question hangs over the market: Where are the investors?

China's A-share market is dominated by retail investors, but while the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has risen almost 12% since bottoming out on July 5, there hasn't been much change in interest levels among the general public at getting involved in the market.

Last week, 287,765 new A-share trading accounts were opened, up 13% from the week before. While at first glance that might suggest renewed interest, in fact it's business as usual - weekly new account openings have oscillated within the 200,000 to 300,000 range for months.

'This suggests that Chinese retail investors for now remain too intimidated by policymakers' frequent and arbitrary interference,' to pile back into the market, said Michael Kurtz, China strategist for Macquarie Securities. He called recent account openings 'subdued.'

During the bull run of 2007, Chinese investors opened about 1.6 million new accounts in one week, according to Macquarie. Even 12 months ago one week saw about 700,000 new accounts opened.

So far analysts are forecasting that China A-share market will remain rangebound until investors regain confidence that Beijing has managed to engineer a soft landing for China's economy. And the best indication of an imminent and sustainable rebound might not be stronger economic data or positive statements from Beijing, but an upsurge in new account applications from China punters.

中国股市或许已经找到了自己的护身符，但有一个问题却萦绕着市场：投资者哪儿去了？

中国A股市场的投资者大多是散户，不过虽然基准上证综合指数自7月5日触底反弹以来上涨已近12%，普通大众对炒股的感兴趣程度依然没有太大变化。

上周，A股交易账户新增287,765个，较前一周增加了13%。乍一看这似乎表明人们又恢复了炒股热情。可实际上这仅是一种常态──每周新开户数量已有数月都在20万至30万之间波动。

麦格理证券(Macquarie Securities)的中国问题策略师库茨(Michael Kurtz)说，这表明如今的中国散户投资者还是太担心决策者频繁而肆意的干涉，以至于不敢重回股市。他将最近的开户情况称为“受到了抑制”。

据麦格理，在2007年中国股市的牛市行情期间，中国投资者一个星期的新开户数量大约为160万。即使在12个月前，一周的新开户数也在70万左右。

目前，分析师预计中国A股市场将保持区间波动的状态，直到投资者重新相信政府已有能力实现中国经济软着陆。此外，能预示股市即将展开持久性反弹的最佳迹象也许既不是强劲的经济数据，也非中国政府的积极言论，而是股市新开户数量的激增。