【英语中国】中国央行怎么看通胀风险

Inflation in China may not be a short-term worry, but it is still a long-term risk. That seems to be the message from two separate statements this week from China's central bank.

An analysis of the latest economic trends by the central bank's statistics department appears to show cautious optimism that immediate inflationary risks aren't high. There are still warning signs: Surveys show expectations of inflation are still elevated, the report says, and food prices could still rebound.

But the pressure on inflation from an overheating economy, which the central bank had flagged in its economic report in April, seems to be easing as growth slowed in the second quarter.

Many private economists expect consumer-price inflation, which reached 2.9% in June, to decline later this year. And two proprietary indicators calculated by the People's Bank of China, and not published elsewhere, provide some support for that view.

First, the central bank's estimate of the output gap in the industrial sector is now showing reduced strain on factory capacity. (This is the difference between actual industrial output and an estimate of potential output, expressed as a percentage of potential output. If the output gap is positive, factories are running all-out in response to high demand, which tends to push prices up; if the output gap is negative, factories are sitting idle with not enough customers, and prices would be pushed down.)

The output gap was a positive 0.82% in June, the first time in seven months it had dropped below 1%, according to the central bank. In March, the output gap was a positive 3.06%, according to the central bank's previous report. Although figures for other months haven't been published, the chart in the report appears to show the output gap declining for each of the past three months.

Second, the central bank's leading indicator of inflation has turned around and appears to be signaling a coming decline in inflation. The report didn't give the values of the indicator, but chart the shows the leading indicator turning downward just after the beginning of this year.

The central bank doesn't make too much of this signal: 'Currently, the CPI leading indicator has already peaked and now has a slight downward trend, but the level of the index is still high and it is still possible it could rise in the future,' the report says.

And that may be because of the long-term outlook on inflation expressed by deputy governor Hu Xiaolian, in one of a string of recent commentaries she has published on the bank's website. China's economy faces a structural challenge with the costs of both labor and raw materials likely to rise in the future, she says.

Growth in China's working-age population has already slowed, and is likely to reverse in the next five to 10 years, Hu writes. The result: 'The surplus of labor will be gradually reversed, and the upward pressure on wages will be magnified.' At the same time, the continued growth of China's energy-hungry economy will put increasing pressure on the environment and supplies of non-renewable resources, she says.

'Energy and resources in general are getting increasingly scarce, so their prices will continue to rise,' Hu writes. 'Wages for labor are rigid, and except for declines in the case of a crisis or major technological breakthroughs, the long-term trend is one-directional.'

中国的通胀可能不是短期忧虑，但仍是长期风险，这似乎是中国央行本周发布的两份声明想要传达的信息。

央行统计部门对最近经济趋势的分析似乎显示了谨慎乐观的态度，即当前的通胀风险还不高。但仍有警告信号：报告说，调查显示通胀预期依然居高不下，食品价格可能仍然会反弹。

中国央行在4月经济报告中警告经济过热，但随着第二季度经济增长放缓，通胀压力似乎正在减弱。

今年6月消费者物价增幅达到2.9%，许多民间经济学家预计今年稍后将下降。中国央行计算的两项专有指标，为这一观点提供了一些支持。

首先，央行有关中国工业增加值产出缺口的估算数据显示，对工厂产能的压力减小了。央行将这一指标定义为实际产出与可能产出之间的差额，以可能产出的百分比来表示。如果产出缺口为正，则表明工厂正全力运转，以应对高需求，这通常导致价格上行。如果缺口为负，则表明因缺乏足够的客户，工厂产能闲置，而价格将下滑。

根据央行数据，6月产出缺口为正0.82%，这是七个月来首次低于1%。根据央行此前报告，3月产出缺口为正3.06%。尽管没有公布其他月份的数据，但报告中的图形似乎显示，过去三个月产出缺口每月均为下降。

People第二，央行的通胀先行合成指数转向，似乎暗示未来通胀将下降。该报告没有提供指标的数值，但图表显示，该指数在今年初刚过后即下降。

央行并没有对信号作太多解释，报告说，当前的通胀先行合成指数已升到高位，眼下呈略微下降的趋势，但这一指标的水平仍较高，未来仍有可能上升。

中国人民银行副行长胡晓炼最近在央行网站上发表的一系列文章中表示，这可能是因为通胀的长期前景所致。她说，中国经济面临结构性挑战，劳动力和原材料成本未来均可能上升。

胡晓炼写道，中国劳动年龄人口增长已放缓，今后5-10年内可能出现劳动年龄人口总量的绝对下降。其结果是，“劳动力过剩局面将逐步逆转，劳动工资上涨压力凸显。”与此同时，中国经济的能源资源消费很大，中国经济的持续增长将使环境和不可再生能源、资源的供应承受越来越大的压力。

胡晓炼写道，“能源资源一般越来越稀缺，其价格将不断上扬。劳动工资也有刚性，除危机、重大技术突破等导致阶段性下降外，其长期调整趋势是单方向的。”