【英语中国】中国二季度降能耗交出满意答卷

China's energy efficiency improved in the second quarter of this year, according to new government data, following a crackdown on wasteful industries initiated earlier this year by alarmed leaders.

The data issued Tuesday hardly paint a rosy picture. China's consumption of energy relative to economic output increased for the first half of the year by 0.09% from the year-earlier period, the National Bureau of Statistics said. But that pace was much slower than the 3.2% increase in energy intensity -- or the fuel used per dollar of gross domestic product -- China reported for the first quarter, suggesting an improvement in the April-June period.

Observers are looking at China's ability to meet its energy-efficiency targets as a test of its commitment to curb emissions of global-warming gases. China last year promised to cut the amount of carbon emissions per dollar of economic output by 40% to 45% by 2020 compared with 2005 levels, although Beijing rebuffed calls to cap the absolute level of carbon emissions. China's energy efficiency and greenhouse-gas emissions are closely linked because China relies heavily on coal, which releases carbon into the atmosphere when burned.

The impact of China's performance on the rest of the world has grown with its booming economy. China surpassed the U.S. in 2007 as the largest emitter of carbon, and last month the International Energy Agency said China passed the U.S. in 2009 as the top energy consumer. China disputed the IEA's findings, but even its own figures put it only slightly behind the U.S.

China's government pledged to improve energy efficiency by 20% from 2005 to 2010. By 2009, the government said it had reduced energy use by nearly 16% relative to economic output, revising an earlier figure of 14.4%.

But the efficiency goals were put into question after China's economic stimulus sparked a housing and infrastructure boom, leading to a jump in energy consumption by less-efficient sectors, such as steel production. According to investment bank UBS, heavy industry accounts for 56% of China's energy consumption, and only 28% of GDP.

Many feared China would drop its promises while it tried to maintain economic growth. UBS estimates reaching the 20% efficiency target could require a reduction in GDP of as much as two percentage points.

After the poor numbers for the first quarter were reported, Premier Wen Jiabao in May vowed to use an 'iron hand' to reach the targets, and the government announced it would shut down inefficient factories in more than a dozen sectors, including steel, cement, leather and even the food additive monosodium glutamate.

Part of the latest easing of energy use appears related to an overall economic slowdown following tightening measures by the government. Economic growth slowed to 10.3% in the second-quarter from a year earlier, down from 11.9% in the first quarter. When growth is more rapid, factories are more likely to use their least-efficient machinery to fill orders.

The sudden improvement reported Tuesday also could fuel doubts about the reliability of China's official data. 'Even if China's latest numbers are reasonably accurate -- and we believe they are -- China still has some work to do to convince international analysts of this fact,' wrote Arthur Kroeber and Rosealea Yao of consultancy GaveKalDragonomics.

新的政府数据显示，中国今年第二季度的能源使用效率提高，今年早些时候对能效问题有所警觉的领导人下令对低能效行业进行了一次整顿。

周二公布的数据很能让人对前景感到乐观。国家统计局说，中国上半年单位国内生产总值（GDP）能耗较上年同期上升0.09%。这一幅度大大低于中国公布的第一季度单位GDP能耗3.2%的升幅，表明4月至6月期间情况出现了改善。

观察人士正将中国是否能实现能效目标视为对其有关温室气体减排承诺的检验。去年，中国承诺到2020年时使单位GDP碳排放量比2005年的水平减少40%至45%，但却拒绝对碳排放的绝对水平设定限制。对中国而言，能效和温室气体排放有着密不可分的关系，因为中国严重依赖煤，而煤在燃烧时会释放出碳。.

中国的表现对世界其他国家产生的影响也随着它不断发展的经济而变得越来越重要。2007年中国取代美国成为全球最大的碳排放国，国际能源署（IEA）上月说，中国在2009年时超过美国，成为世界头号能源消耗国。中国反驳了IEA的说法，但它自己的数据也显示仅仅略低于美国。

中国政府承诺2005到2010年期间将能源效率提高20%。它在2009年底时说，GDP能耗已降低近16%，修正了此前公布的14.4%。

但随着中国的经济刺激计划引发房地产和基础设施建筑热潮，能源消耗在炼钢等低能效领域的带动下大幅提高，这一能效目标能否实现令人产生质疑。根据瑞士银行（UBS），中国的能源消耗有56%是来自重工业，而它对GDP的贡献只有28%。

许多人担心中国将因尽力保持经济增长而放弃最初的承诺。瑞银估测，要达到20%的能效目标，GDP将因此减少两个百分点之多。

第一季度糟糕的能耗数据出炉后，国务院总理温家宝5月份誓言要出“铁拳”完成这一目标，政府宣布将关闭十余个行业的低能效工厂，涉及钢铁、水泥、皮革，甚至食品添加物味精。

最新的能耗降低迹象似乎在一定程度上与政府实行的紧缩措施而导致的总体经济放缓有关 。第二季度经济同比增速降至10.3%，低于一季度的11.9%。当增长更加迅速时，工厂使用低能效的机器设备来完成订单的可能性会更大。

周二公布的突然好转的数据也令人更加怀疑中国官方数据的可信性。咨询公司龙洲经讯(GaveKalDragonomics)的葛艺豪（Arthur Kroeber）和Rosealea Yao写道，即便中国最新公布的数据合理且准确──我们认为是如此──中国仍需要说服国际上的分析师相信这一事实。