【英语中国】豪华车厂商二季度业绩回升 中国仍是重点

BMW's second-quarter results are the latest sign of an impressively fast comeback of luxury car makers after a woeful 2009, with soaring demand in China, streamlined costs and a relatively weak euro driving profits.

The world's three best-selling premium auto makers -- BMW, Daimler's Mercedes-Benz brand and Volkswagen's Audi unit -- all reaped operating profit margins above 9% in the second quarter, shrugging off concerns that affluent car buyers wouldn't return to showrooms after the financial crisis hit.

For comparison: Profit margins in the auto industry's volume segment are often well below 5% (and it was only last year when many auto makers, including Mercedes-Benz, were burning through huge cash amid eroding sales).

Luxury auto makers regained their financial muscle faster than expected and appear on track for new record profit levels. But despite lots of praise from analysts, BMW made a point by taking a slightly cautious view on the second half of the year.

BMW might have developed a track record of giving overly conservative sales and earnings guidances, but when it comes to monitoring market developments closely, the Munich-based firm proved more than once it has its ears on the ground. Remember it was BMW that avoided bloated inventories by scaling down production ahead of the historic market slump when rivals where still churning out new cars at full steam. Last year's industry gloom showed how quickly sales can deteriorate when credit markets tighten.

So despite the bright prospects of luxury car makers in coming months, investors will be well advised to keep a close eye on three factors that could potentially eat into profits: the euro regaining further ground compared to the dollar; the development of raw material prices especially, for steel and natural rubber; and slowing growth rates in China.

The enormous growth rates seen in recent quarters in the Chinese market won't be sustained, because they were partly sparked by wide-ranging stimulus packages.

So auto makers will be keeping their fingers crossed in coming months that the Chinese government can orchestrate a smooth transition to more sustainable growth rates and ensure that the industry's crucial growth engine doesn't shift back too many gears at once.

宝马公司（BMW）第二季度业绩为豪华车市场在表现糟糕的09年后实现强势而迅速的回归提供了最新佐证，不仅中国市场需求突飞猛进，成本改善和相对疲软的欧元也提高了利润。

全球最畅销的三大豪华车生产商──宝马、戴姆勒（Daimler）旗下的梅赛德斯-奔驰（Mercedes-Benz）品牌以及大众（Volkswagen）旗下奥迪（Audi）子公司──第二季度运营利润率均超过9%，进而打消了金融危机来袭后购车人不会再进行炫耀性消费的担忧。

这里有一个可供比较的数据：汽车业多数领域的利润率往往都远低于5%（仅在去年，包括梅赛德斯-奔驰在内的许多汽车生产商因销量下滑而损失了大量资金）。

豪华车生产商不仅重新恢复财务实力的速度要快于预期，它们似乎正朝创造新的利润水平纪录迈进。然而尽管分析师的诸多溢美之词，宝马却对今年下半年的前景表达了略显谨慎的看法。

宝马或许有着发布过于保守的销售和业绩指导预期的一贯传统，不过在监控市场活动方面，这家总部位于慕尼黑的公司不止一次地证明自己随时保持着关注。记得在历史性的市场大萧条来临之前，是宝马通过减产来避免过剩的库存，而它的竞争对手们却还在开足马力大量生产新车。去年的行业低迷表明，信贷市场收紧时销量的恶化速度将有何等之快。

因此，虽然豪华车生产商在今后数月有着光明前景，还是要提醒投资者密切关注可能会对利润造成侵蚀的三个因素：欧元兑美元进一步升值、原材料尤其是钢铁和天然橡胶价格的走势以及中国增速放缓。

最近几个季度中国市场的高增长态势将不会持续，因为这在一定程度上是大范围经济刺激计划的结果。

所以，汽车生产商在未来几个月里将祈祷中国政府能漂亮地引导经济平稳过渡至一种更具可持续性的增长模式，并确保汽车业的关键增长引擎不会一次性倒档太多。