【英语中国】中国股市大涨 一反上半年颓势

China's stock market, one of the world's worst performers in the first half of the year, has swung upward as investors bet that the government's aggressive efforts to tighten the reins on the economy have peaked.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 2.3% Wednesday to close at 2633.66, bringing its surge from its year's low, set July 5, to more than 11%.

The climb is in line with other major global markets, but is notable because it contrasts sharply with the China index's performance over the first six months of this year. Then, it fell about 27% -- almost as bad as the 33% drop in the benchmark index in Greece -- and spooked investors around the world that the biggest engine of global growth could cool.

China's economy grew robustly in the first half of the year, although growth in the second quarter slowed significantly from the first. Investors knocked down share prices during those six months because of moves by Beijing to rein in property speculation and to curb lending to certain areas of the economy amid fears that last year's massive stimulus was causing the economy to overheat. As stimulus spending waned and the government's moves began to take hold, concerns grew that the government might throttle back too far amid an increasingly uncertain global outlook.

Investors are now responding to government signals that it is backing away from further tightening and taking a more neutral stance. Traders bet that will translate into greater market liquidity and a boost for share prices.

While analysts say the market has likely bottomed for now, they also say sentiment is far from bullish.

'I think people need a clearer indication that the external economy has stabilized and that China's economy will have a soft landing' before the market undergoes a sustained rally, said Terrace Chum, executive director for Greater China equities at MFC Global Investment Management in Shanghai.

In mid-July, Premier Wen Jiabao said China will maintain the 'continuity and stability' of its economic policies in the second half of this year. He waded in again last week, signaling that maintaining fast economic growth is now a higher priority for the government than it was earlier in the year.

'The subtle change in policy tone should provide support for the market,' UBS Securities economist Wang Tao said in a note. 'However, we see policy stability, not reversal, as the key phrase here.'

For most of its relatively short history, China's stock market bore little apparent relationship to the economy. But in more recent years, it has hewed more closely to broader trends, declining from a record in October 2007 as the global recession slowed China's growth and picking up again a year later as China's massive stimulus was rolled out.

China's investors are especially sensitive to policy cues, analysts say. Unlike more-developed economies, where governments regulate the economy by adjusting interest rates, Beijing tends to try to manage inflation and the pace of economic growth by using blunt administrative tools that investors watch closely -- even though they often aren't publicly announced, but emerge through local media reports and word of mouth.

Still, reading the tea leaves of government policy isn't an exact science, and some investors remain wary of piling back into the market.

Michael Kurtz, China strategist for Macquarie Securities, said interest in the country's stock market has been strongest in recent weeks among fund managers who have been reducing their cash holdings and investing more in stocks.

But he said the number of new trading accounts opened by retail investors has remained subdued in recent weeks, reflecting wariness in the wake of the market's decline earlier this year. 'For many retail investors, it's a case of once bitten, twice shy,' he said.

ChinaFotoPress/Zuma Press安徽淮北一交易所内的电子报价牌，照片拍摄于今年早些时候曾是今年上半年全球表现最差股市之一的中国股市大涨，因投资者押注中国政府紧缩经济的积极措施已达到顶点。

周三上证综指大涨2.3%，收报2633.66点，从7月5日创下的年内低点累计涨逾11%。

这一升势与全球其他主要股市走势相符，但非常引人瞩目，因为这与今年前六个月中国股指的表现形成鲜明对比。今年上半年中国股指共计跌约27%，几乎与希腊指标股指33%的跌幅一样糟糕，这令全球投资者担心全球增长的最大引擎──中国的经济增长可能已降温。

今年上半年中国经济稳健增长，不过第二季度增长速度远低于第一季度。今年上半年投资者推低股市，因中国政府担心去年的大规模刺激政策导致经济过热，因此出台了各种措施抑制地产投机并限制对某些经济领域的贷款。由于经济刺激支出减少且政府措施开始生效，投资者担心在全球前景越发具有不确定性之际，政府可能会过度刹车。

投资者目前对政府撤出更多紧缩政策、采取更中性立场的信号作出反应。交易员认为，这将会转化为市场流动性上升，并提升股价。

尽管分析师说，股市目前可能已见底，但他们也说人气还远未到看涨的程度。

宏利金融环球投资管理（亚洲）（MFC Global Investment Management）大中华区股票事务行政总监覃伯兴（Terrace Chum）说，我认为在股市持续上涨前，人们需要外部经济企稳且中国经济将软着陆的更清晰的迹象。

7月中旬，中国国务院总理温家宝说，今年下半年，中国要继续保持宏观经济政策的“连续性和稳定性”。上周他再次谈到这个话题，表示相对今年早些时候，目前保持经济平稳较快发展是政府更要优先考虑的问题。

瑞银证券(UBS Securities)经济学家汪涛在报告中说，政策基调的微妙变化应该会为市场提供支撑。不过，我们认为政策的稳定性而非政策的逆转才是关键词。

在中国股市相对较短的历史中，大部分时间里中国股市与经济都没有什么明显的关系。不过，近年来，中国股市更加密切地跟随经济总体走势，在全球衰退令中国增长放缓之际，2007年10月股市从纪录高点下挫，一年后又随着中国大规模刺激计划的推出而反弹。

分析人士说，中国投资者对政策信号尤其敏感。与那些政府通过调整利率来调控经济的更为发达的经济体不同的是，北京方面往往会试图通过直接行政手段来管理通胀和经济增长速度──即使这些政策常常不会公开发布，而是通过地方媒体报导和口头传播出现，投资者们会密切关注这类行政手段。

尽管如此，预言政府的政策并非一种精密科学，一些投资者仍对重返股市心存谨慎。

麦格理证券(Macquarie Securities)中国策略师库茨(Michael Kurtz)说，近几周，基金经理对中国股市的兴趣最为强劲，他们一直在减少现金持有，更多的投资股市。

不过，他说，近几周散户投资者新开户数量一直低迷，反映出今年早些时候股市下挫后投资者的谨慎态度。他说，对很多散户投资者来说，这是一朝被蛇咬，十年怕井绳。