【英语中国】投资中国的黄金时期已过？

As some of the world's prominent fund managers have turned increasingly bearish about investment prospects in China, Guy Hands at Terra Firma, during his latest trip to Beijing, calls for the world's young people to 'Go East.'

But the optimism from the chairman and founder of Terra Firma Capital Partners Ltd., one of the largest private equity funds in Europe, may have arrived late. Many believe the golden period for investment in China is over.

Indeed, Hands' statement that Terra Firma has started looking for Chinese partners for some businesses may strike some as a tad anachronistic.

'We feel very strongly that the economic future of the world for the next 20 to 50 years is going to be dominated by China,' he told a press briefing in Beijing, adding that the confidence the West had a year ago about a quick recovery 'is not there today.'

Kynikos Associates founder Jim Chanos and British hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry are two well-known hedge fund managers who have decided to short China. Both believe that China's credit excesses have led to bubbles that will burst.

Even Hands acknowledged that the subject of his latest visit to China has been related to 'more where I came from, than where I arrived.' Indeed, his view about Europe, and China, may not have shifted so much, had his fund not put a severe dent in its track record by buying EMI Group Ltd.

Terra Firma in 2007 bought EMI for GBP2.4 billion--around $4.8 billion at the time--in a deal largely financed by loans from Citigroup Inc. The deal soured quickly after its completion as the financial crisis amplified the already significant declines in the recorded music market.

Terra Firma closed that deal in late July or early August of 2007, around the same time that a couple of Bear Stearns hedge funds ran into trouble in the mortgage markets.

'We were wrong by two weeks,' he said in September last year. If Terra Firma had not invested, it would still have 90% of its fund and 'would look like geniuses,' Hands said at the time.

'The world has become more difficult to invest in over the last 10 years,' he said. To be successful over the next 20 to 30 years, one would need to think more globally, he said.

Hands didn't elaborate on what has attracted him most about China. But he indicated that U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague, who was the best man at his wedding, shares his optimism. Hands pointed out that Hague visited Beijing as one of his first stops after he took the position.

在全球一些知名基金经理对中国的投资前景越来越悲观之际，欧洲最大的私募股权基金之一泰丰资本(Terra Firma Capital Partners Ltd.)的葛涵思(Guy Hands)在最近的北京之行期间，呼吁全球的年轻人“到东方去”。

Bloomberg News葛涵思不过，泰丰资本的董事长、创始人的乐观可能为时已晚。很多人认为，投资中国的黄金时期已经过去了。

葛涵思说泰丰资本已经开始为一些业务寻找中国合作伙伴。实际上，他的话可能会让一些人感到有些不合时宜。

葛涵思在北京的一次媒体吹风会上说，我们非常强烈地感到，未来20年到50年的全球经济未来将由中国所主导。他还说，一年前西方对迅速复苏所怀有的自信如今已经不复存在了。

投资公司Kynikos Associates创始人查诺斯(Jim Chanos)和英国对冲基金经理亨德利(Hugh Hendry)是两位决定做空中国的知名对冲基金经理。两人都认为，中国的过度信贷导致了泡沫，而泡沫将破裂。

甚至是葛涵思也承认，他最近中国之行的主题更多地与“我来自哪里”有关，而不是与“我到了哪里”。实际上，若不是他的基金因收购百代公司(EMI Group Ltd.)而业绩严重受损的话，他对欧洲和中国的看法可能不会改变太多。

2007年，泰丰资本斥资24亿英镑（当时约合48亿美元）收购了百代，资金主要来自花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)的贷款。由于金融危机令业已严重下滑的唱片音乐市场雪上加霜，这桩交易在达成之后很快就遇到了麻烦。

2007年7月底、8月初，泰丰资本完成了交易，当时正值贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)的两只对冲基金在抵押贷款市场上陷入困境之际。

葛涵思在去年9月时说，我们就差了两周。当时他说，假如泰丰资本没有投资的话，它仍会有90%的资金，看起来会像天才一样。

他说，过去10多年来，世界变得更加难以投资了。他说，要在未来20年至30年取得成功，你必须更具全球眼光。

葛涵思没有详细说明中国有什么地方最吸引他。不过，他暗示说，英国外交大臣黑格(William Hague)和他一样也对中国持乐观态度。黑格曾是葛涵思的伴郎。葛涵思指出，黑格上任之后，把中国作为他首批出访的国家之一。