【英语中国】中国钢铁业：影响全球化 思维地方化

The ups and downs of China's steel sector ripple globally these days. At the root of these gyrations, though, lay very local politics.

Facing slowing demand, Chinese steelmakers are lowering prices. The slump is passing into other markets. Chinese demand for iron ore is slowing, which is bad news for iron-ore exporters in countries like Australia and India. Global shipping rates reflected in the Baltic Dry Index have also slumped.

Meanwhile, Chinese steelmakers are increasing exports: These were up fourfold in June from a year earlier. Beijing knows that such figures will draw accusations of dumping from other countries, so it has tried to discourage this by ending export-tax rebates to steelmakers. Last week, the government unveiled a plan to cut the number of steelmakers to 200 from 800. What happens next depends on the outcome of a struggle between Beijing's aims for its steel industry and the interests of China's local governments.

Standard Chartered estimates steel-industry capacity will increase to 780 million tons in 2011 from 740 million tons in 2010. That is despite a supposed three-year moratorium on new capacity additions imposed by Beijing last August.

Provincial governments have plenty of incentive to allow further expansion even as steel prices fall. Steel companies remain a main source of tax revenue in many provinces, and the governments don't want to be left behind when demand eventually does catch up. Long-term projections for infrastructure and housing construction suggest the industry's excess capacity will eventually be used up by domestic demand. When it comes to China's steel industry, the thinking is still very much local.

中国钢铁业的涨跌行情近期在全球引起连锁反应，但动荡的根本原因是由地方政策导致的。

面对需求放缓，中国钢铁生产企业降价以对，这一跌势正波及其他市场。中国对铁矿石的需求减少，这对澳大利亚和印度等铁矿石出口国是个坏消息。以波罗的海干散货运指数（Baltic Dry Index）形式反应的全球航运费亦下挫。

与此同时中国钢铁生产企业增加了出口：6月出口是上年同期的四倍。北京方面知道这样的数据将引来其他国家对倾销的指责，因此通过终止对钢铁生产企业的出口退税来努力减少指责。上周中国政府推出将钢铁生产企业从800家降至200家的计划。接下来要发生什么，就要看北京方面为钢铁行业制定的目标与中国地方政府利益之间角力的结果了。

渣打银行（Standard Chartered）估计2011年钢铁业产能将从2010年的7.4亿吨升至7.8亿吨，尽管北京方面去年8月将新增产能举动暂停三年。

尽管钢铁价格下降，但省一级政府有充足的刺激政策允许该行业进一步扩展，钢铁企业仍是许多省份税收的主要来源，省一级政府不想在需求最终赶上来的时候落于人后。对基建业和住宅营建业的长期预测暗示，钢铁业过剩的产能最终将被国内需求消耗干净。说到中国钢铁业的时候，思维仍是非常地方化的。