【英语中国】中国经济增长放缓累及大宗商品市场

A slowdown in China's headlong economic growth, while moderate so far, is reverberating through global markets because of the country's outsize role as a buyer of metals, minerals and other commodities.

Since Beijing started cracking down on its overheating property market in mid-April, global prices for aluminum are down 18%; for copper, 13%; for lead, 19%; and for nickel, 27%, though prices for all of those metals have stabilized somewhat in recent weeks. Steel prices in China are down about 15% over the period. Analysts say there could be further declines, as growth in China's huge construction sector continues to ease.

The construction boom in China has played a crucial role in global demand for raw materials, to the benefit of resource exporters such as Australia, Brazil, Canada and much of Africa. The Chinese government this month reaffirmed its commitment to policies aimed at restraining high housing prices and property speculation, which became an increasing source of middle-class discontent in recent months. Analysts are now expecting conditions in China's property market to get worse before they get better.

The majority of Chinese steel and aluminum producers are now operating at or below their cost levels, wrote Daniel Kang, head of metals & mining in Asia-Pacific at HSBC Ltd., in a research report published on Wednesday. 'This should trigger supply cuts from producers . . . and provide a floor for prices,' he wrote. Production cuts will persist during the third quarter until the market restores the balance.

Among all commodities, nickel and copper are under particular stress. HSBC analysts noted that a drop in home sales led to a decreased appetite for appliances such as washing machines and air conditioners. In China, nearly 25% of nickel and 18% of copper are used to make home appliances.

Data issued July 15 showed overall growth in China easing to 10.3% in the second quarter from 11.9% in the first quarter.

Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, says China's commodity consumption is likely to fall more sharply than overall economic growth. 'It is heavy industry and commodities that are worst affected, as they benefited most from the earlier investment-led growth surge,' he says. 'The financial markets may not be recognizing the risks of a sudden drop-off. They're still not used to China's outsized swings.'

China accounted for 66% of world iron-ore imports and about 40% of global consumption of aluminum, copper and zinc in 2009, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, a government research agency. The International Energy Agency this week further highlighted China's huge role in natural resources, saying the country has surpassed the U.S. as the world's largest consumer of energy -- an assertion China disputed. By contrast, China accounts for only about 3% of world imports of consumer goods, according to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, so its slowdown won't be as noticeable to countries that make such products. And most indications are that China's economy has cooled only modestly so far.

'China's economic growth has made a significant contribution to the world economic recovery,' says National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Sheng Laiyun, pointing to 53% growth in China's total imports in the first half of the year.

Shipments of commodities tell a different story: China's purchases of iron ore in June fell 15% from a year ago in volume terms, and those of copper fell 31%. China's coal imports, while still high, were at their lowest level in a year in May. Heavy industry seems to be shifting into a lower gear, with China's crude steel output growing at its slowest pace in a year in June.

'Steel consumption demand has fallen,' Industry Minister Li Yizhong said in recent comments reported by the Xinhua news agency. He warned of the impact of worsening business conditions in the world's largest producer and consumer of steel. 'Some steel companies are losing money, and if they don't quickly take effective measures, it could affect the steel industry's hard-won recovery.'

In Australia, the central bank raised interest rates in May, citing in part the boost that high commodity prices were delivering to the Australian economy. China bought nearly 22% of Australia's exports last year and absorbs about a third of its key minerals exports. The central bank of Canada, another major commodity exporter, followed with its own increase in interest rates in June.

But in announcing this month that the Reserve Bank of Australia was leaving interest rates unchanged, Governor Glenn Stevens noted that 'there are indications that growth in China is now starting to moderate to a more sustainable rate.' Still, he didn't express alarm about the recent fall in raw-material prices.

'Commodity prices are off their peaks but those most important for Australia remain at very high levels,' he said.

Growing demand from developed economies could still support commodity prices, though there are worries about the strength of the recovery in the U.S. and Europe. In an April report, the Bank of Canada said it expects nonenergy commodity prices to rise by about 30% over the next three years. While it forecasts China's growth to slow to 9% in 2011 and 2012, it expects other major economies to be growing more strongly by then and taking up the slack in commodities markets.

中国急速的经济成长有所放缓，尽管放缓程度迄今仍温和，但正影响着全球市场，因为中国是金属、矿产和其他大宗商品的特大买家。

4月中北京方面开始整治过热的地产市场以来，全球铝价累计跌18%；铜价下挫13%；铅价下滑19%；镍价挫跌27%，不过近几周所有这些金属的价格有些企稳。同期内中国钢铁价格下跌约15%。分析师说，由于中国庞大的营建业增长持续走软，钢铁价格可能会进一步下挫。

Reuters在安徽合肥的一家钢材产品市场，一名工人挪动钢管。中国营建业的繁荣在全球原材料需求中起着至关重要的作用，为澳大利亚、巴西、加拿大和多数非洲国家等资源出口国带来了利益。本月中国政府重申要坚持旨在抑制过高房价和地产投机的政策，过高房价和投机活动近几个月成为中产阶级日益不满的源头。分析师目前预计，中国地产市场的情况会恶化，然后才能好转。

汇丰（HSBC Ltd.）亚太市场金属及矿业主管Daniel Kang在周三发表的研究报告中写道，中国多数钢铁和铝生产商目前正在平本甚至亏本经营，这应导致生产商减少供应，……并让价格得以触底。第三季度将持续减产，直到市场恢复平衡。

在所有大宗商品中，镍和铜尤其承压。汇丰分析师写道，房屋销售下降导致人们对洗衣机和空调等家用电器兴趣减少。在中国，近25%的镍和18%的铜用于生产家用电器。

7月15日公布的数据显示，中国第二季度经济增长率从第一季度的11.9%降至10.3%。

苏格兰皇家银行（Royal Bank of Scotland）经济学家贝哲民（Ben Simpfendorfer）说，中国大宗商品消费的下降幅度可能高于整体经济增幅的下降，重工业和大宗商品受打击最大，因为它们从早期投资引领的经济增长中受益最多。金融市场可能还没有意识到突然下降的风险，它们还没有习惯于中国市场大幅度的波动。

根据政府研究机构澳大利亚农业经济局（Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics）数据，2009年中国在全球铁矿石进口中占66%，在全球铝、铜和锌消费中约占40%。国际能源署（International Energy Agency）本周进一步凸显了中国在自然资源方面所扮演的重要角色，指称中国已超过美国，成为全球最大的能源消费国，这一声明受到中国的驳斥。形成鲜明对比的是，根据国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）的估算，中国在世界进口消费品中仅约占3%，所以中国需求放缓对生产这些产品国家的影响不是太明显。多数指标显示，迄今中国经济仅温和放缓。

国家统计局新闻发言人盛来运就今年上半年中国整体进口增长53%说，中国经济的增长对世界经济的复苏做出了很大的贡献。

但大宗商品的出货却说明了不同的情况：6月中国铁矿石采购量较上年同期下降15%，铜采购量减少31%。中国5月煤炭进口量虽仍较高，但处于一年来最低水平。重工业成长动力似乎减缓，6月中国粗钢产量以一年业最低速度增长。

新华社报导，工业和信息化部部长李毅中近期表示，钢铁消费需求下降。他对中国这一全球最大钢铁生产和消费国营运状况日益恶化的影响发出警告。他说，部分钢铁企业已出现亏损，如不及时采取有效措施，将会影响钢铁行业来之不易的回升向好局面。

澳大利亚央行5月调升了利率，部分指因大宗商品价格上涨对澳大利亚经济产生了影响。去年中国买入澳大利亚约22%的大宗出口商品，吸收了该国约三分之一的主要矿产出口。加拿大央行也在6月调升了利率，加拿大是另一大宗商品重要出口国。

但本月澳大利亚央行维持利率不变，央行行长史蒂文斯（Glenn Stevens）表示，有迹象显示，中国经济增长开始放缓至更可持续的水平。不过他依然没有对近期原材料价格下跌发出警告。

他说，大宗商品价格虽脱离了高位，但对澳大利亚最重要的那些大宗商品价格仍维持在非常高的水平。

尽管人们担心欧美经济复苏的力度，但发达国家越来越多的需求可能将支撑大宗商品价格。加拿大央行在4月报告中说，预计未来三年非能源大宗商品价格将上涨约30%。尽管该央行预计中国经济增长率将在2011和2012年放缓至9%，但它预期届时其他主要经济体增长将更强劲，使大宗商品市场不再冷清。