【英语中国】欧洲股神伯尔顿：中国中小企业值得投资

Anthony Bolton, the veteran Fidelity International portfolio manager who left retirement earlier this year to manage the Fidelity China Special Situations Fund, is finding value in small to midsize Chinese businesses.

These smaller businesses tend to be under-researched and 'balance sheets are much stronger than I expected with many companies having net cash positions,' Mr. Bolton said in an interview last week.

Small to medium Chinese businesses, or companies with a market capitalization less than $5 billion, often have 'reasonable' growth potential but with valuations below Western equivalents, Mr. Bolton said.

Fidelity's China Special Situations Fund is a closed-end fund. The fund can invest in a variety of assets including stocks, derivatives and high-yield bonds. Most holdings are in stocks, with about 39% in the fund listed in Hong Kong; 13% in the U.S.; 12% in A and B shares in China; and 7.2% elsewhere.

Stock-market opportunities in China are likely to become even more attractive to foreign investors as global growth slows, but growth in China remains relatively robust. 'Recent macro indicators point toward slowing growth globally as the sharp economic recovery seen after the recession is losing momentum,' Mr. Bolton said.

However, he said, 'in China, the tightening process that started late last year is also slowing the economy although growth is still well above that seen in developed markets. In a low-growth environment, the high relative growth being experienced in China is increasingly attractive to global investors.'

After a strong run-up last year, Chinese stocks have been weak with China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index down about 25% so far this year, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index down about 8% this year.

Mr. Bolton also said China's position on the S-curve, or the stage of growth in which population rises steadily but consumption increases rapidly, puts it in an investment 'sweet spot.'

Chinese consumer spending, as a percentage of gross domestic product, is low compared with other Asian countries. The retail and service sectors are developing quickly as China's growing middle class increases spending on branded clothes, food, cars and other items.

Mr. Bolton likes companies in the consumer sector such as retailers, hotels, cellular and media companies. He also is keen on financials, electrical distributors, gas distributors and investment firms that are selling at significant discounts. Sectors he is staying away from include commodities and heavy industries.

Mr. Bolton, who managed the Fidelity Special Situations Fund for 27 years, stepped down from day-to-day portfolio management in 2007 only to return to it earlier this year. He moved to Hong Kong from London in April. Since then, he already has visited over 150 Chinese companies and is working closely with Fidelity's existing China fund managers and analysts.

Mr. Bolton said he became more interested in China when, as manager of the Fidelity Special Situations Fund, he decided to focus on one emerging market. 'The center of gravity of the world is shifting East,' he said, noting that he picked China because 'it has the most impact on the world.' His first visit to China was in 2004.

富达国际(Fidelity International)资深基金经理博尔顿(Anthony Bolton)在今年早些时候从退休生活回到工作岗位，管理“富达中国特别形势基金”(Fidelity China Special Situations Fund)。他发现，中国中小企业具有投资价值。

伯尔顿上周接受采访说，这些规模更小的企业往往没有得到足够的研究，并且它们的资产负债表比他的预料扎实得多，很多公司都拥有净现金头寸。

所谓中小企业，指的是市值不超过50亿美元的公司。伯尔顿说，中国中小企业常常具有不错的增长潜力，但其估值却低于西方的中小企业。

富达中国特别形势基金是一只封闭式基金，可以投资一系列资产，包括股票、衍生品和高收益债券。多数头寸都是股票，基金的39%左右投资于香港股票，13%为美股，12%为中国的A股和B股，另有7.2%投资于其他地区的股市。

随着全球经济增长放缓而中国的增长保持相对强劲，中国股市的投资机会有可能对外国投资者变得越来越有吸引力。伯尔顿说，随着衰退过后出现的快速经济复苏失去力量，近期的宏观指标都指向全球增长的放缓。

但他说，虽然去年年底开始的紧缩过程也在造成中国经济放缓，但它的增长速度仍然远远高于发达市场；在一种低增长环境中，中国经历的高速相对增长，正在对国际投资者释放出越来越多的魅力。

中国股市在去年强劲上扬后一直保持疲软，基准上证综合指数(Shanghai Composite Index)今年以来下跌约25%，香港恒生指数(Hang Seng Index)今年以来下跌约8%。

伯尔顿还说，中国正处在人口稳定增加而消费快速增长的阶段，所以是一个非常好的投资机会。

相比亚洲其他国家，中国消费支出占国内生产总值的比重还比较低。随着中国不断增长的中产阶级拿出更多的钱用于购买品牌服饰、食品、汽车和其他物品，零售业和服务业正在快速发展。

伯尔顿偏好消费行业的企业，比如零售、酒店、手机和传媒公司。他还对股价折扣较大的金融、电器经销商、加油企业和投资公司青睐有加。他规避的行业则包括大宗商品和重工业。

伯尔顿管理富达“特别形势”基金有27年，2007年停止做日常投资管理，今年早些时候才重操旧业。他在4月份从伦敦搬到了香港，自那以来，已经参观过中国150多家企业，并正在同富达着眼中国的现有基金经理和分析师们紧密合作。

伯尔顿说，当他作为富达“特别形势基金”经理决定关注于一个新兴市场的时候，就对中国产生了更大的兴趣。他说，世界的重心正在东移，他选择中国是因为它在世界上影响最大。伯尔顿第一次前往中国是在2004年。