【英语中国】印度：至少股市表现比中国强

It's a small victory but worth noting nevertheless.

As India's stock markets hit two-year highs this week, Chinese stocks are losing money--and how. This year the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex is up almost 3% through the end of Wednesday, while China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index is down 25%, putting India ahead by a whopping 28 percentage points.

So, why this stark differentiation between the stock markets of the world's two largest emerging countries?

Even as the developed world fears another recession, both the Indian and Chinese economies have been growing very rapidly in recent months. Local companies have been reporting double-digit profit growth. China's gross domestic product was up 11.9% in the first quarter of this year while the Indian economy grew by 8.6%. However, Chinese growth has slowed in the second quarter of the year; recent data shows that it grew 11.1% for the first half of the year.

But in the last several weeks, investors have become more nervous about whether China can sustain its economic growth for the rest of this year. Meanwhile, India has not thrown any major surprises so far in 2010--making it a haven for investments.

China's stock market slide started around three months ago, partly due to the Chinese government's measures to roll back the stimulus it had pumped into the economy during the 2009 downturn.

The government has tried to reduce speculative activity in its red-hot property market by, for example, increasing the minimum payment required to buy properties. 'The market was taken by surprise as the tightening came earlier than expected,' according to a note from analysts at HSBC Global Asset Management.

Also China last month loosened its foreign exchange mechanism, which had been keeping the yuan artificially low, thus helping Chinese exporters. Now analysts are divided over whether the new currency flexibility will help or hurt the Chinese economy.

'In addition, we have the European sovereign debt concern, which intensified in May amid concerns of contagion,' note the HSBC analysts.

While Europe's problems resulted in dips in India as well, each time stocks came back pretty quickly partly because investors realized that the Indian economy is not as dependent on exports to these developed countries as China is.

To be sure, Indian stocks have been pretty volatile this year. But overall, things seem to be moving in the right direction--the monsoon has been decent so far, inflation has not spiraled out of control and, most importantly, the Indian government has stuck to its commitment for pushing reform. The recent hike in fuel prices to reduce draining government subsidies, despite staunch opposition, has been encouraging for investors.

The last time Indian stocks performed better than those in China was during the downturn of 2008. When the Shanghai Composite fell 65.5%, the Sensex was down just 53%. On the rebound, China was stronger, gaining 80% in the calendar year 2009 versus 76.4% for the Sensex.

Will India continue to outpace China for the rest of this year?

Shefali Anand

这虽是小小的胜利，不过仍值得关注。

AFP/Getty Images上海一位投资者在电子报价牌前走过本周印度股市触及两年高点，而中国股市折戟沉沙，截至周三收盘，孟买证交所Sensex指数今年累计上涨近3%，而中国上证综指跌25%，印度股市较中国大幅领先28个百分点。

那全球两个最大的新兴经济体的股市差距为什么这么明显呢？

尽管发达国家担心再次出现经济衰退，但印度和中国经济近几个月都在快速增长。本地企业纷纷公布获利呈两位数上升。今年第一季度中国国内生产总值（GDP）增长11.9%，印度经济增长8.6%。但中国经济在第二季度放缓，近期数据显示今年上半年经济增长11.1%。

但最近几周，投资者对于今年下半年中国能否维持经济增长更加谨慎，而与此同时，印度今年迄今还没有出现什么重大意外，这使其成为投资天堂。

中国股市大约在三个月前开始下跌，部分由于中国政府采取措施，从2009年经济放缓时推动经济发展的刺激政策中退出。

政府努力减少在火热的地产市场中的投机行为，采取了诸如提高购房最低首付的举措。汇丰环球投资管理（HSBC Global Asset Management）分析师的一份报告显示，由于紧缩政策出台的时间早于预期，市场颇感意外。

另外中国上月放宽了汇率机制，该机制使人民币汇率一直被人为低估，因为这样帮助了中国出口企业。目前就新的货币弹性是将帮助还是损害中国经济，分析师看法不一。

汇丰分析师写道，另外欧洲还出现了主权债务问题，在人们担心其将蔓延之际，欧洲主权债务危机在5月加剧。

尽管欧洲问题也带动印度股市下跌，但每次又很快反弹，部分因为投资者认识到印度经济对商品出口到发达国家的依赖程度不像中国那么严重。

然而无可否认，印度股市今年也相当动荡，但总体来说，事情似乎正朝正确方向推进，通胀没有脱离控制，最重要的是，印度政府一直坚守推进改革的承诺。印度政府力排众议于近期上调了燃料价格以减少消耗政府补贴，这一举动鼓励了投资者。

上次印度股市表现优于中国股市是在2008经济放缓的时候，当时上证综指跌65.5%，印度Sensex指数仅下挫53%。但中国股市的反弹力度更强，2009年中国股市累计涨80%，印度股市共计升76.4%。

那么今年年底前印度能继续超越中国吗？

Shefali Anand