【英语中国】经济学家评中国二季度GDP增速放缓

The National Bureau of Statistics reported Thursday that China's economic growth slowed to 10.3% in the second quarter of 2010, a downshift largely in line with market expectations and government policy to cool the housing market. Analysts give their take:

Fears of China's slowdown are overstated. As the economy returns to a more sustainable path, we think there is no need to introduce more fiscal stimulus measures or ease the current monetary policy stance…as Chinese depositors have suffered from the negative real interest rate in the first half, they will search for high yield assets in earnest going forward. As such, the property market is unlikely to cool and the risks of a property bubble remain. - Liu Li-Gang, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group.

Growth was expected to slow in the second quarter and is expected to continue to slow as we move into the second half of the year. A greater worry for the government is evidence that a moderate slowdown in growth in April and May has segued into a more rapid deceleration in the final month of the quarter…today's numbers will strengthen the hand of the pro-growth lobby, and test the resolve of the government on pricking the real estate bubble, and the withdrawal of the monetary stimulus. - Tom Orlik, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates

Beijing will stick to property tightening measures, but as inflation fears are alleviated and industrial-production growth is falling more than expected, the Chinese government will likely accelerate investment in public housing and, to a lesser extent, infrastructure spending to stabilize growth. The chance for additional monetary tightening measures such as reserve-ratio requirement and rate hikes is getting smaller in the next couple of quarters. Despite the slowing growth, we think the chance for double-dip in China is quite small as China's pragmatic policymakers are quite flexible on policy stance. And they still have a deep pocket to buffer any big slowdown. - Ting Lu, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch

So far, the slowdown is in line with [policymakers'] objective of controlling inflation pressures and slowing investment to a more sustainable level. However, if growth slows significantly further, we are likely to see some adjustment in policies to support domestic demand…we see moderate downside risk to our 10.1% growth forecast for 2010, with risks mainly related to uncertain external demand. - Wensheng Peng & Jian Chang, Barclays Capital

This looks more like a smooth-ish exit from the stimulus cycle, rather than a forebear of nasty things to come. Inflationary pressure has really eased off - for now - with a pullback in CPI and PPI coming in conjunction with the sharp halt in property price rises. This has no doubt bought the government some keenly-sought breathing space for its renminbi appreciation schedule, although strong export growth and surplus have pushed the issue of the renminbi valuation back onto the table in U.S.-China relations - Alistair Thornton, IHS Global Insight

The correction in demand is relatively limited. Public spending is estimated to have slowed in the first half owing to a crackdown on wasteful spending. But there are signs that private facilities investment has strengthened, while private residential investment has not yet seriously responded to April's property-related tightening measures…the government has yet to effectively tackle the sources of the property bubble: high savings rates, capital controls, and limited investment options. - Ben Simpfendorfer, Royal Bank of Scotland

中国国家统计局周四公布说，2010年二季度，中国经济增速放缓至10.3%，这一放缓基本符合市场预期和政府为楼市降温的政策。分析人士的看法如下：

对中国经济增长放缓的担忧被夸大其词了。随着经济回到更可持续的道路上，我们认为没有必要推出更多的财政刺激措施，或是放宽目前的货币政策立场。由于上半年中国存款人遭遇了负的实际利率，今后他们将热切寻找高收益资产。照此，楼市不太可能会降温，房地产泡沫的危险依然存在。
──澳新银行(Australia & New Zealand Banking Group)，刘利刚

分析人士曾预计二季度经济增长放缓，预计下半年还将持续放缓。令政府更加担忧的是，有证据显示4、5月份经济的温和放缓演变成了6月份更急剧的放缓。周四出炉的数据将增强保增长派的说服力，检验政府为楼市降温和退出货币刺激计划的决心。
──Stone & McCarthy Research Associates，Tom Orlik

北京将坚持楼市紧缩措施，不过随着通胀担忧的缓解、工业生产增长的放缓超过预期，中国政府很可能将加快保障性住房的投资，并辅以基础设施支出来稳定增长。未来几个季度，提高存款准备金率和加息等更多货币紧缩措施推出的可能越来越小。尽管经济增长放缓，我们认为中国出现二次探底的可能非常小，因为中国务实的决策人士在政策立场上非常灵活。他们仍有巨额资金来为任何大幅放缓提供缓冲。
──美国银行美林(Bank of America-Merrill Lynch)，陆挺

目前为止，经济增速放缓符合决策人士控制通胀压力和将投资放缓至一个更可持续水平的目标。不过，如果增长进一步大幅放缓，我们很可能会看到政策出现一些调整，以便支持内需。我们预测2010年经济增速将为10.1%，鉴于主要与不确定的外部需求有关的风险，现在这一预测有可能需要小幅下调。
──巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)，彭文生、常健

这看起来更像是从刺激周期的顺利退出，而不是预示着坏事将临。由于消费者价格指数(CPI)和生产者价格指数(PPI)双双回落，加上房价上涨突然停止，通胀压力确实已经暂时缓解。这无疑在人民币升值问题上给了政府一些迫切需要的喘息空间，不过强劲的出口增长和顺差使人民币升值问题重新回到了美中关系的谈判桌上。
──环球通视(IHS Global Insight)，Alistair Thornton

需求的调整相对有限。由于打击浪费性支出的行动，估计上半年公共支出放缓。不过，有迹象显示私人设施投资有所增强，而私人住宅投资尚未对4月份楼市紧缩措施作出明显反应。政府尚未有效解决楼市泡沫的根源：高储蓄率、资金管制、有限的投资选择。
──苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)，贝哲民(Ben Simpfendorfer)