【英语中国】史蒂芬•罗奇：我不想当中国的格林斯潘

Morgan Stanley's Asia chairman, Stephen Roach, is returning to the U.S. after three years based in Hong Kong to embark on a career in academia starting this fall at Yale University.

Never one to shy away from controversial views, Mr. Roach sat down for the Wall Street Journal's 'Big Interview' series and shared his thoughts on global growth prospects, the China 'bubble' myth, and why he wouldn't have reconfirmed Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Here's a brief summary of his remarks:

On the likelihood of a 'double-dip' in the U.S.:

Roach: I'd give it a higher probability than most, maybe 40% at some point over the next year. We have a weak recovery, weak labor market, weak consumer purchasing power…and a consumer that's unable to rely on property and credit bubbles to support consumption anymore. So if you have a disappointing consumer and any kind of unexpected shock you could go down again. […] Double-dips are not as infrequent as you might think…Weak recoveries leave you vulnerable to shocks.

On the austerity/stimulus debate:

Roach: I think [Fed policymakers] have done more than enough at this point. [Interest rates] are at levels that actually would insulate the economy in the event of a double-dip…I think they should actually have rates higher than they are right now.

On former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan:

Roach: I think that one of the problems we had in the aftermath of the bursting of the equity bubble is that Alan Greenspan kept the policy rate too low for too long, set us up for credit and property bubbles that led to an enormous crisis, [and] I think Ben Bernanke is just rerunning the Greenspan movie of seven or eight years ago.

On Chairman Bernanke:

Roach: I would have voted against him, I think he's a great public servant, from what I hear a very nice and kind man, but his policy approach has always been since he was an academic to condone asset bubbles, argue that central banks do not need to pay attention to asset prices in setting monetary policy, that they had the firepower to clean up a mess after the bubble had burst. Well, look at the mess we're in right now. That approach really has been rendered obsolete by the great crisis of '08-'09 and I think needs to be changed.

On whether the Chinese economy is in a 'bubble':

Roach: Chinese authorities have a completely different approach in dealing with maters of asset bubbles, credit bubbles…they are preemptive, the U.S. is reactive. China wants to build firewalls between the asset markets and the real economy so they certain do have, or they did have, I should say, a high-end property bubble…in April they took extremely tough actions to curtail multiple purchases by speculators and they stopped! And they did that before the housing bubble got bigger and ended up distorting the real economy, so they've done a good job. […] I think it's really wrong to view China as an enormous macro property-bubble story.

Are you making the Greenspan argument now about China? Are you China's Alan Greenspan?

Roach: Oh God, I hope not.

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）亚洲主席史蒂芬•罗奇（Stephen Roach）在香港工作三年后，将要返回美国，今年秋天起在耶鲁大学（Yale University）开始其学术生涯。

罗奇从不惮于发表争议言论，他坐下来接受了《华尔街日报》Big Interview系列报导的采访，分享了他对于全球经济增长前景和中国“泡沫”神话的看法，并说明他为什么没有不再支持美国联邦储备委员会（Federal Reserve）主席贝南克（Ben Bernanke）。以下是他的言论简摘。


罗奇：我本来应该投票反对他，我认为他是个很好的公务员，从我所听说的事情来看，他也是个不错的好人，但从他还是学者的时候，他奉行的政策就一直是容忍资产泡沫，认为央行在制定货币政策时无需关注资产价格，以及他们有能力在泡沫破裂后收拾烂摊子。那么让我们看看现在的烂摊子吧。从2008-2009年的严重危机来看，他的方法显得陈腐过时，我认为需要调整。


关于中国经济是否存在“泡沫”：


罗奇：中国当局应对资产泡沫和信用泡沫等事宜时采用的是完全不同的方式，他们采用的是先发制人的策略，而美国是应激式的。中国希望在资产市场和实体经济间建立防火 ，我想说，他们肯定会有，或他们已经有了高端地产泡沫……中国当局4月采取了极端严格的措施抑制投机客买入多套房产，而且成功地做到了！他们在楼市泡沫变大，最终扭曲实体经济前就采取了措施，所以他们做得不错。[……]认为中国出现了巨大的地产泡沫，我觉得这种观点是错误的。


你目前是否就中国发表格林斯潘式的评论？你是中国的格林斯潘吗？

罗奇：噢，老天，我希望不是。