【英语中国】中国6月贸易顺差反弹至半年最高水平

China's trade surplus rebounded in June to its highest level in half a year, according to official economic data released over the weekend that painted a picture of cooling domestic growth but so-far resilient demand from the global economy.

China's exports exceeded imports by $20.02 billion in June, the General Administration of Customs said Saturday, wider than May's $19.5 billion trade surplus and April's just $1.68 billion surplus. Exports grew unexpectedly fast in June -- with shipments to Europe actually picking up, despite that region's economic difficulties -- while gains in imports continued to slow.

On Sunday, meanwhile, the central bank published figures showing further reduction in the stimulus to the economy delivered through the state-controlled banking system. Growth in bank lending slowed to 18.2% in June from 21.5% in May, the People's Bank of China said, while the increase in the M2 measure of money supply eased to 18.5% in June from 21% in May.

The central bank also said China's foreign-exchange reserves, the largest in the world, reached $2.454 trillion at the end of June. Reserves growth slowed in the second quarter, for reasons that weren't entirely clear.

Wary of a bubble in the housing market and of growing risks of inflation, Chinese authorities have been easing back on their stimulus measures since the second half of 2009.

That has shown up in cooling growth in investment projects and purchases from abroad: Growth in imports slowed to 34.1% in June from 48.3% in May on a year-to-year basis.

That reinforces other recent bearish signs about commodity demand from China, the world's third-largest economy, after the U.S. and Japan, and the biggest buyer of many kinds of raw materials from places such as Latin America, Australia, and Africa.

'China's commodity-led import growth has already passed its cyclical high,' said Li Wei, an economist with Standard Chartered. While imports of crude oil in June rose 34% from a year earlier to a new monthly high, China's purchases of industrial materials are falling. June imports of iron ore, for instance, dropped 15% from a year earlier, and those of copper fell 31%.

China's exports, by contrast, beat forecasts. Exports expanded 43.9% in June from a year earlier, easing from May's 48.5% rise. The slowdown in both exports and imports is at least partly due to a higher comparison base in the year-earlier period.

The June result sends a reassuring signal on the current strength of demand from the global economy -- the European Union bought $27.2 billion of Chinese goods in June, up from May's $25.9 billion -- but could lead to greater international political pressure on Beijing to allow more currency appreciation.

'China has reported another strong trade surplus, and next week we are going to see another large U.S. trade deficits,' said Royal Bank of Canada economist Brian Jackson. 'This contrast will likely add to the international pressure on Beijing to allow further currency gains to make a bigger contribution to global growth.'


China's central bank loosened the currency's peg to the U.S. dollar on June 19, but the yuan has risen less than 1% against the dollar since then. The U.S. and other trading partners argue that faster appreciation would reduce the competitiveness of its exports and thus help alleviate the trade imbalance.


'The decline in [China's] current-account surplus is likely to be reversed unless the government perseveres with policy efforts to rebalance the economy and to advance and implement a more flexible, market-determined exchange rate,' the U.S. Treasury Department warned in a report last week.


China's trade surplus is the main driver of foreign-exchange reserves, as the central bank buys foreign currency brought home by exporters. But the nominal value of China's reserves increased by just $7.19 billion in the second quarter of 2010, much less than the $41.2 billion total trade surplus for the quarter.


Economists said the recent volatility in financial markets was probably a factor. The U.S. currency's rise reduces the face value of China's holdings of other currencies in dollar terms. And nervous investors may have pulled some capital out of China amid signs of slowing growth.


The rapid growth in China's exports may well come under pressure soon. The high figure for June's exports could have been artificially boosted by Chinese exporters advancing shipments to avoid the cancellation of tax rebates on some goods that came on June 22. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu said he expects export growth to slow in the coming months after the effect of that tax change fades.


And growth in the developed countries that are China's main customers could well disappoint. 'We think that persistently high unemployment and a fading government stimulus in the U.S., and austerity programs in a debt-plagued EU, will take the edge off demand from China's two major trade partners,' said Tom Orlik, an analyst in Beijing for Stone & McCarthy Research Associates.


While China's government is clearly not aiming for a drastic slowdown -- unlike many other Asian countries, it hasn't raised interest rates -- its tightening measures will also continue to bite in coming months.


Officials have set a target of 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) in new bank lending this year, representing a 22% drop from last year's level. China's banks extended 603.4 billion yuan of new yuan loans in June, central bank data showed Sunday, and have now lent 62% of the annual target in the first half of the year. That indicates credit growth will likely slow in the coming months.

周末官方公布的经济数据显示，中国6月贸易顺差反弹至半年来最高水平，显示国内增长放缓，但迄今全球经济需求强劲。

European Pressphoto Agency/MARK
辽宁营口的一个集装箱码头中国海关总署周六公布，6月中国出口较进口多出200.2亿美元，高于5月时195亿美元的贸易顺差和4月仅16.8亿美元的顺差。6月出口意外快速增长，而进口增幅持续放缓，对欧洲的出口实际增长，尽管欧洲地区经济仍有困难。

与此同时周日中国人民银行公布的数据显示，进一步降低经济刺激的效应已传递至国有银行体系。中国人民银行公布，6月银行贷款增幅从5月的21.5%降至18.2%；6月广义货币（M2）供应量增幅从5月的21%降至18.5%。

中国央行还公布，作为全球最大的中国外汇储备6月底达到2.454万亿美元，第二季度外汇储备增长放缓，但原因尚不完全清楚。

由于担心地产市场泡沫和不断增加的通胀风险，中国当局自2009年下半年以来已减少刺激措施。

这体现在投资项目和海外采购增长放缓：6月较上年同期进口增幅从5月的48.3%降至34.1%。

这巩固了近期其他关于中国大宗商品需求的空头信号，中国是继美国和日本之后的世界第三大经济体，是从拉丁美洲、澳大利亚和非洲等地区出产的许多种原材料的最大进口国。

渣打银行中国区经济学家李伟说，中国大宗商品引领的进口增长已经过了其周期高点。尽管6月中国对原油的进口较上年同期增长34%至月度新高，但中国对工业原材料的采购正在下降。例如6月中国对铁矿石的进口较上年同期下降15%，铜进口减少31%。

与此相反，中国的出口超过了预期。6月出口较上年同期增长43.9%，低于5月时增长的48.5%。出口和进口同时下降，至少部分由于去年同期基数较高。

6月数据就全球经济需求旺盛发出了确定的信号，当月欧盟买入272亿美元中国商品，高于5月时的259亿美元，但这可能导致更大的国际政治压力向北京方面施压，要求人民币进一步升值。

加拿大皇家银行 (Royal Bank of Canada)经济师杰克逊(Brian Jackson)说，中国已经再一次报告出现强劲的贸易顺差，而且下一周，我们将再一次见到美国出现巨额贸易逆差的数据。这一反差很可能将加大国际社会对北京方面的压力，要求北京允许人民币进一步升值以对全球经济的增长做出更大的贡献。

中国央行于6月19日放松了人民币与美元挂钩的政策，但从那以后，人民币兑美元升值不到1%。美国和其它贸易伙伴称更快速的升值将降低中国出口商品的竞争力，从而有助于减轻贸易失衡的状况。

上周，美国财政部(U.S. Treasury Department)在报告中警告说，除非中国政府坚持平衡经济的政策努力，推进和实施更灵活的、由市场决定的汇率政策，否则中国经常性账户盈余减少的情况很可能出现逆转。

由于中国央行购买由出口商带回来的外汇，因此贸易顺差成为其外汇储备的主要推动力量。但2010年第二季度，中国外汇储备的票面价值仅增长了71.9亿美元，大大低于当季的贸易顺差总额──412亿美元。

经济学家说，近期金融市场的波动可能是因素之一。美元的升值降低了中国持有的其它货币以美元计的票面价值。而且面对中国经济增长放缓的迹象，紧张的投资者或许从中国撤出了部分资金。

中国出口领域的快速增长或许将很快面临压力。6月份出口数据较高可能是由中国出口商人为造成的，他们提前发货以避免6月22日之后部分商品取消出口退税给他们造成的影响。美国银行-美林(Bank of America-Merrill Lynch)经济学家陆挺(Ting Lu)预计，未来几个月，在退税政策变化的影响逐步消失后，出口增长的速度将放缓。

作为中国的主要顾客，发达国家的增长可能会令人失望。研究公司Stone & McCarthy Research Associates驻北京分析师奥尔利克(Tom Orlik)说，我们认为，美国的持续高失业率及政府刺激政策影响的逐步消失，再加上深陷债务泥潭的欧盟国家推行的财政紧缩计划将导致中国这两个主要贸易伙伴的需求减少。

中国政府显然不打算让经济硬着陆，与许多亚洲国家不同，中国并未提高利率，但未来几个月，其紧缩措施仍将继续对增长造成影响。

官员们已经为今年的银行新增贷款设定了人民币7.5万亿元（合1.1万亿美元）的目标，比去年的水平低22%。央行周日的数据显示，今年6月，中国各银行的新增人民币贷款总额达6,034亿元，今年上半年的贷款总量已达全年目标的62%。这预示着未来几个月的贷款增速将放缓。