【英语中国】农行股票明日上交所挂牌 市场人气待检验

Agricultural Bank of China Ltd.'s shares are set to start trading Thursday in a debut that will test market sentiment and provide an important signal on whether the Chinese lender will be able to claim the record for all-time biggest initial public offering.

AgBank priced its mainland Chinese and Hong Kong shares last week, raising $19.23 billion from strategic partners, institutional investors and retail investors. To set the record, it will need to exercise its overallotment option, or greenshoe, a right to issue additional shares that will depend largely on how the stock performs in the days and weeks after its listing.

Several fund managers said they are optimistic that AgBank's shares will have a solid debut, especially its Class A shares for mainland Chinese investors, which start trading in Shanghai on Thursday. The Class-H shares debut the next day in Hong Kong.

Investors point to the relative health of China's economy, although growth is slowing from its red-hot pace earlier in the year, and to signs of life in the mainland Chinese stock market after a miserable performance for most of the year. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index is down about 25% this year, but it has gained about 2% so far this month.

'The stabilizing stock market and banking stocks in recent days are to some extent offering some positive signs for the debut,' said Yan Ji, a director at HSBC Jintrust Asset Management Co.

Demand for AgBank's H shares could be less robust than for the A shares, fund managers said, given the lukewarm retail interest in Hong Kong. Still, in Hong Kong's unofficial 'gray market,' AgBank's H shares have been trading hands at a 2% to 3% premium to the IPO price.

Weighing against AgBank is a general concern about financial stocks globally, even though Chinese banks are generally in better financial shape than their developed-world counterparts. In addition, the stock could be pressured by concerns that AgBank, along with China's other state-owned banks, have been lending too much to local governments that might have trouble paying them back.

The last of the big four Chinese banks to go public, AgBank priced at the top end of an indicative price range in Shanghai and just above the middle of the range in Hong Kong-at 2.68 yuan (40 U.S. cents) and 3.20 Hong Kong dollars (41 U.S. cents), respectively. If it fully exercises its overallotment option in Shanghai and Hong Kong, it would raise $22.1 billion, topping the $21.9 billion raised by Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. in 2006.

The overallotment option is a tool to try to prevent stocks from falling after their IPOs. Underwriters often offer investors more stock than has actually been allotted for an IPO-as much as 15% of the total offering. Then, if the share price starts falling after it lists, the underwriters buy shares in the market and distribute them to investors, helping to support the stock price in the process. If the shares rise, however, the newly public company can exercise the overallotment option to issue more shares, which the underwriter then sells, increasing the total funds raised in the IPO.

AgBank already said last week that it had oversold the Shanghai tranche of its listing by 15%. Bank officials haven't disclosed such information about its Hong Kong listing, but market watchers say institutional demand for AgBank H shares has been strong enough, despite the lackluster retail demand.

AgBank's A-share retail tranche is 11.52 times covered and its institutional tranche has been 11.28 times covered. That's a far cry from ICBC's retail tranche, which was 33.72 times covered and its institutional tranche 14.00 times. Official figures on the H-share retail tranche will be released Wednesday, but market participants say the institutional H-share tranche is about 10 times covered and the retail tranche is five to six times covered.

中国农业银行(Agricultural Bank of China Ltd.)的股票定于本周四首次开始上市交易，这将考验市场人气，并能揭示农行能否创下史上最大规模首次公开募股(IPO)纪录。

农业银行上周对其在内地上市的A股和香港的H股定价，从战略合作伙伴、机构投资者和散户投资者处筹资192.3亿美元。要实现IPO规模创纪录，农业银行需要行使超额配售权（或称“绿鞋”），即额外发行股票的权力，而这取决于该股上市后几天乃至几周内表现如何。

一些基金经理说，他们对农业银行股票上市初期的强劲表现持乐观态度，尤其是面向中国内地投资者的A股。农行A股于周四在上海开始交易，H股则于周五在香港开始交易。

投资者看好农行的理由是中国经济状况相对良好，虽然增长速度已将今年早些时候的炽热有所放缓，另一个理由是中国内地股市经过了今年大部分时间的糟糕表现之后已显示出复苏迹象。基准的上证综合指数今年累计下跌约25%，但本月迄今已上涨2%。

资产管理公司汇丰晋信基金管理有限公司的投资董事阎冀说，近日股市和银行股企稳，在某种程度上为农行股票首次上市交易提供了积极信号。

基金经理说，农行H股的需求有可能不如A股强劲，因香港散户反应冷淡。不过，在香港非正式的暗盘市场，农行H股易手价已较IPO价格有2%-3%的溢价。

对农行不利的因素在于全球对金融类股的普遍担忧，即使中资银行通常比发达国家的银行财务状况要好。此外，人们担心农行和其他中国国有银行向难以还贷的地方政府放贷过多，该股可能会受到此类担忧情绪的重压。

农行是中国四大银行中最后一家上市的银行。农行在上海的定价位于指导性价格区间的上限，在香港则刚刚高于价格区间的中点，分别为每股人民币2.68元（合40美分）和3.20港元（合41美分）。如果农行完全行使在上海和香港的超额配售权，它将筹集到人民币221亿美元，超过2006年中国工商银行筹集的219亿美元。

超额配售权是一种试图防止股票在IPO之后下跌的工具。承销商们常常会向投资者提供多于IPO中实际配售的股票，至多可以达到总发行量的15%。这样，如果股价在上市后开始下跌，承销商们会在市场上买进股票，向投资者发放，在这个过程中帮助支撑股价。不过，如果股价上涨，新上市企业就可以行使超额配售权来发行更多股票，然后承销商会出售这些股票，进而增加IPO筹资总额。

农行上周已经说，A股超卖达15%。该行管理人士尚未披露有关H股的类似信息，不过市场观察人士说，机构投资者对农行H股的需求已经足够强劲，尽管散户投资者的需求平平。

农行A股散户超额认购为11.52倍，机构投资者超额认购为11.28倍。这远远不及工商银行散户超额认购的表现，散户超额认购为33.72倍，机构投资者超额认购为14.00倍。农行H股散户认购的官方数据将于周三公布，不过市场预测人士说，H股机构投资者超额认购约为10倍，散户超额认购为五到六倍。