【英语中国】中国经济二季度增速可能放缓

Key economic data scheduled for release in Beijing Thursday are likely to show slower growth as a result of the government's gradual withdrawal of stimulus policies and recent crackdown on high property prices, economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires said,

China's gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced in the country, was likely 10.5% higher in the second quarter than a year earlier, according to the median forecast of 14 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires. That would represent a slowdown from the 11.9% increase in the first quarter's GDP.

The long-anticipated slowdown isn't necessarily a cause for concern, economists say, as it doesn't represent a big change in the trend. The impact of the government's economic-stimulus policies was greatest in the second quarter of 2009, and Beijing has been easing back on them since then.

When calculated as a seasonally-adjusted comparison with the previous quarter (http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2010/05/19/wsj-poll-shows-spike-in-china%EF%BF%BD%EF%BF%BD%EF%BF%BDs-first-quarter-growth/), GDP growth has actually been slowing since the third quarter of 2009, most economists estimate, a gradual slowdown interrupted by an unexpected acceleration in the first quarter of this year.

But there are worries that new risks -- such as the impact of the euro-zone crisis on exports -- could further slow growth in the rest of this year. One of the most important swing factors for growth in the second half will be to what extent private investment in property construction slows in response to government restrictions on home buying, economists said.

'The campaign against property speculation has had a chilling effect on purchases--property sales in June were 46% lower than the daily average for 2009--and this will presumably soon feed through to weaker construction activity,' Mark Williams, an economist for research firm Capital Economics, said in a note.

Other indicators to be published Thursday will also likely show slowing growth in economic activity. Economists forecast industrial production rose 14.9% in June, down from May's 16.5% rise, and fixed-asset investment in urban areas rose 25.2% in the January-June period, down from 25.9% growth in the January-May period.

China's consumer price inflation likely picked up in June, with economists' forecasts centering on a 3.3% rise in the consumer price index, after May's 3.1% rise. That would mark the second consecutive month of inflation above Beijing's 3% target rate for average inflation over the full year.

But economists generally expect inflation to fall in the second half due to a higher comparison base in the year-earlier period, and recent declines in the prices of vegetables and other food, key components of the CPI basket.

道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)调查的经济学家说，预计于周四在北京发布的核心经济指标可能显示增长减慢，这是政府逐步撤回刺激政策、近期打压高房价的结果。

道琼斯所调查的14位经济学家的预测中值显示，中国第二季度的国内生产总值(GDP，衡量一国所产出全部商品和服务的价值)可能较一年前增长了10.5%。这将低于一季度11.9%的GDP增速。

经济学家说，这种放缓人们很久以来就有预料，不一定值得担忧，因为它并不代表趋势方面的重大变化。政府经济刺激的效果在2009年第二季度体现得最为明显，而过后北京方面一直在逐渐撤回。

事实上，多数经济学家估计，如果按季节性因素调整后与前一个季度比较，GDP的增长速度从2009年第三季度以来就一直就在放慢。只是今年一季度GDP增长意外加速，打断了这一逐步放缓的过程。

但有人担心，欧元危机影响出口等新的风险可能会进一步减缓今年下半年的增长。经济学家说，下半年增长速度的最大变数之一，是房地产建筑领域的私人投资会因为政府限制购房而出现多大程度的放缓。

研究公司Capital Economics经济学家威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)说，打击房地产投机的行动已经对购房行为起到了冷却作用，6月份住房销售较2009年日均水平下降了46%，而且这应该会很快传递到建筑活动领域，使之变得更加疲软。

将在周四发表的其他指标可能也会反映出经济活动的放缓。经济学家估计，6月份工业产值增幅为14.9%，低于5月份16.5%的增幅，1-6月份城镇地区固定资产投资增长25.2%，增速低于1-5月份的25.9%。

中国居民消费价格水平在6月份的涨幅可能已经加大，经济学家的预测中值是CPI上涨3.3%，高于5月份的涨幅3.1%。这将是通胀水平连续两个月高于中国政府为全年平均通胀率设定的3%的目标。

但经济学家们普遍预计通胀率会在下半年回落，原因是去年同期的可比基数较高，以及作为CPI篮子关键组成部分的蔬菜等食品价格最近出现了下降。