【英语中国】中国出口飙升无助扭转全球失衡

Contain your surprise but China has just reported another eye-watering export performance. A record $137 billion worth of goods were apparently shipped out in June, the strongest month ever. Moreover, compared with last year, exports are up nearly 44%.

Now stock markets all over the place were delighted to hear it, and not just in Asia. Investors always love growth and, to be sure, nothing remotely like this heavyweight punch is apparent in any of the older, developed economies. Hopes that China will be able to drag the world along while they totter on the ropes, pole-axed by the sullen business of cutting debt, have a powerful hold.

But wait a minute.

What happened to the brave new world we were all promised in the aftermath of the banking crisis, the world where lessons had been learned? At the root cause of that disaster, deeper even than banks' greed or regulators' complacency, was the problem of global economic imbalance. It's not a phrase you hear much any more, which is probably telling, but, in practical terms, it meant emerging markets like China had been doing all the saving and exporting; the feckless West all the borrowing and importing.

Well, after a brief burst of virtue (relative at least to years of mindless splurging), Western savings ratios are creeping lower again. In the wake of a sobering recession, U.K. households, for example, actually began paying down some debt. But now, like recanting dieters tucking back into the fried stuff, their savings ratio has edged lower again. Further falls are likely in coming quarters, according to analysts at ING Bank.

Once again, as with China's endless export explosion, equity investors will probably be delighted. State austerity programs will bleed government money away from developed economies and there will be some comfort in the news that individuals are spending again. They can make good some of the shortfall, at least.

But look at what the markets are really cheering: not merely a return to the bad, old, imbalanced days, but a widening of those imbalances (for good measure, we should note that China's imports slowed last month and what, incidentally, about all those worries that its economy was 'overheating'? All forgotten now).

It would be hopeless to expect the situation to reverse quickly; it was of course built up over a period of decades. But investors interested in the longer term probably shouldn't be so pleased that, two years on from Lehman's implosion, it hasn't reversed at all. Emerging markets are still doing all the saving and exporting; the West all the borrowing and spending. We've seen the end of this movie before. It's a tear jerker.

中国的月度出口额再度令人瞠目结舌，这无疑会让你感到意外。中国6月份的商品出口额达到创纪录的1,370亿美元，较上年同期跃升了近44%。

不仅是亚洲，全球各地的股市现在都乐于听到这一消息。投资者总是喜欢增长题材，当然，任何发达经济体显然都没有与中国出口大幅飙升相类似的重磅增长题材。在世界经济摇摇欲坠、许多国家面临削减债务的艰巨任务之际，希望中国将拖动世界前行的想法很有影响力。

不过请等一下。

我们在银行业危机发生后承诺要建立的美丽新世界发生了什么？这场银行业危机的根源是全球经济失衡，它是比银行的贪婪或监管机构的不作为更为深层的问题原因。全球经济失衡这个词你可能不再经常听到了，这或许能说明点问题，但事实上这个词语意味着中国等新兴市场国家在全力储蓄和出口，而软弱无力的西方则一味举债和进口。

唉，在经历了短暂的浪子回头后(至少相对于以往多年没心没肺的大肆挥霍)，西方国家的储蓄率又再度缓慢下行。举例来说，在经济衰退发生伊始，英国家庭事实上已开始偿还部分债务了。而现在，就像节食人士禁不住诱惑又重新开始大快朵颐一样，英国家庭的储蓄率已再度下降。据荷兰商业银行(ING Bank)估计，这一储蓄率未来几个月预计会继续走低。

伴随着中国无止境的出口膨胀，股市投资者又再度欢愉起来。就在发达国家政府开始厉行节约以削减支出之际，令人稍感欣慰的是这些国家的个人又开始花钱了。这至少能一定程度上弥补政府削减开支导致的需求不足。

但请看看市场真正欢呼喝彩的是什么吧：不仅仅是世界回归以往那些经济失衡的日子，而是这一失衡现象的进一步加剧(顺便说一句，我们应该留意中国上月进口增速的下降，而那些有关中国经济“过热”的种种说辞呢？现在全都无人提及了。)

这种局面无望迅速逆转。它是几十年时间逐步形成的。但那些着眼于中、长期的投资者们或许应对这种局面在雷曼兄弟公司垮台两年后还没有一点逆转的迹象心存一丝忧虑。新兴市场国家仍在全力储蓄和出口，西方国家仍在全力举债和支出。我们以往曾见证过这部大片的结局。那可真是催人泪下啊。